We now have Tropical Storm Calvin

Calvin continues to strengthen beyond forecaster's original predictions and is now forecast to become a Category 1 hurricane later today for a very brief period. Calvin is then forecast to move over cooler waters and become history by Sunday.

Beatriz at 65 mph now, Recon in it

TWC "Tropical Storm Beatriz continues to strengthen off of the west coast of Mexico.

* As of 8 a.m. Pacific Time Monday, Beatriz was located about 210 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, and had top winds near 65 miles per hour.

* Beatriz is expected to become a hurricane later today and then continue to strengthen through Tuesday as it comes close to the coast.

* Beatriz is expected to make a turn to the west Wednesday and begin to head out to sea south of Cabo San Lucas.

* A hurricane warning is in effect between Zihuatanejo and La Fortuna.

* A hurricane watch is in effect between Cabo Corrientes and La Fortuna.

* A tropical storm warning is in effect between Tecpan de Galeana and Zihuatanejo, as well as between La Fortuna and Cabo Corrientes.

* Rainfall between six and 12 inches can be expected along the southwestern coast of Mexico, with locally heavier amounts to possibly 20 inches in the mountains, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

* Tropical storm conditions will begin to reach the hurricane warning area later today and continue to increase through tonight into Tuesday before the storm begins to move away early Wednesday.

"
Recon now goingBetriz:
"
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 16:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Beatriz (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05
0" from Storm2k
Observation Time: Monday, 16:15Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 19.4N 98.3W
Location: 54 miles (87 km) to the E (91°) from México City, Distrito Federal, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 220° at 14 knots (From the SW at ~ 16.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -16°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -26°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,600 geopotential meters

We now have Tropical Storm Beatriz

"Tropical Storm Beatriz continues to strengthen off of the west coast of Mexico.

* As of 5 a.m. Pacific Time Monday, Beatriz was located about 140 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, or about 245 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, and had top winds near 60 miles per hour.

* Beatriz is expected to continue to strengthen over the next couple of days and is expected to become a hurricane overnight and approach the coast Tuesday.

* Beatriz is expected to make a turn to the west around Wednesday and begin to head out to sea south of Cabo San Lucas.

* A hurricane warning is in effect between Zihuatanejo and La Fortuna.

* A hurricane watch is in effect between Cabo Corrientes and La Fortuna.

* A tropical storm warning is in effect between Tecpan de Galeana and Zihuatanejo, as well as between La Fortuna and Cabo Corrientes.

* Rainfall between six to eight inches can be expected along the southwestern coast of Mexico, with locally heavier amounts particularly in higher elevations, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

* Tropical storm conditions will begin to reach the hurricane warning area later today and continue to increase through tonight into Tuesday before the storm begins to move away late Tuesday." TWC

92E up to 60%, major weather cocnern

92E is gradually getting more organized. It is at 60% now, a tropical depression could form in a day or two. The waters are warm and shear is low, and the SHIPS model forecasts a hurricane out of this system.

There appears to be a major weather concern form Mexico. Heavy rainfall, up to 35 inches for that matter, is very possible along the Mexican coast.  As seen in Agatha last year, these rains could cause life-threatening  flash floods, and mudslides/landslides. Breezy conditions are likely as well. Up to $100 million in damage is possible, but I hope this does not happen.

92E forms, at 40%

We now have 92E. It is at 40% and fromed form the SA AOI, while the CA AOI is dead.

From NHC "A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE


SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A

MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD.

"




From Hurricane Wiki "Aoi:Near Central America





Small, Auree mentioned this on IRC. YE Tropical Cyclone



It just keeps getting better and better everyone! Here comes our next one! I'm counting on Beatriz soon, perhaps in a few days. Ryan1000 02:21, June 11, 2011 (UTC)



I would not be surprised to see a storm out of this. Yqt1001 03:03, June 11, 2011 (UTC)



This is barely the beginning, everyone. The outflow of Adrian may hinder (Beatriz), but it likely will follow in his great footsteps and hang out at sea. Ryan1000 04:43, June 11, 2011 (UTC)



Looking good. YE Tropical Cyclone 16:57, June 11, 2011 (UTC)



And getting better. We could easily have this storm become Beatriz and the wave near Panama become Calvin before the 20th of June. We're already trying to catch up to 2010's early hot streak, but unlike 2010, we aren't in La Nina conditions now. We're slowly starting to get more favorable here. Ryan1000 19:41, June 11, 2011 (UTC)



This wave looks better than Adrian right now (looks better, not is more tropical than Adrian). I think that this storm has a very good chance at becoming Beatriz. Yqt1001 23:02, June 11, 2011 (UTC)



No mention on TWO, idk why? YE Tropical Cyclone



It's taking its time to develop, apparently, but I would be surprised if it doesn't develop at all. Ryan1000 00:17, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



It's failing and so are these forums. YE Tropical Cyclone 13:47, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



Well the tropics are dead now that the 3 storms (Sarika, Adrian and One) are gone. I'm just waiting until another storm forms or until the NHC mentions this on their TWO. If neither of these storms form, it looks like the next active basin in the Western Hemisphere will be the Atlantic in 14 days when all conditions become favourable for an Alex like storm to smash into the US coast (or that's what the models think). Yqt1001 14:10, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



I personally do not want to watch the north Atlantic storms at all, because the storms there aren't fun to watch. The storms we like to watch on Wikia are the ones that don't affect land and we can root on for them to get as strong as possible, guilt-free ooing and ahhing, and no threat to anyone. Adrian is an example; he got quite a bit of attention because he was so fun to watch over him having no threat on land. North Atlantic storms cause lots of destruction and deaths, and storms that do that aren't fun to watch. They are heartbreaking and sad to the people they affect. Ryan1000 14:57, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



Good point Ryan, it's nice too not have the guilt of hundreds of people when you track storms (especially when you live so far from hurricanes you don't know what they are like). But I guess for now the only thing to watch is the eruption of Nabro Volcano in Eritrea. Yqt1001 15:28, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



Yeah, I have no idea of how bad people may feel after a hurricane. I mean, many people from hurricane Katrina have lost everything after that storm, including their lives. When a massive major hurricane is heading towards U.S. soil, or towards anywhere for that matter, we don't cheer for it on hurricane Wiki, we wait until the storm has passed and explain details behind the storm in the retirements at a glance section or so. It's not fun to cheer on storms there in the ATL forum. To put it bluntly, the EPac should really be the most active forum on this Wiki and not the north Atlantic because we can root on most of the hurricanes that are in this basin with no harm to anyone's feelings. Rarely do hurricanes here ever make landfall, let alone become retired. Because Mexico gets hit with hurricanes all the time, they have gotten stricter with retirement, as they have showed us last year with Alex and Karl, but they have a very strange track record for EPac names IMO. they retired Pauline of 1997, which killed 230 people and they didn't retire Tara of 1961, which killed nearly 500 people. They retired Isamel of 1995 which killed 116 people and not Liza of 1976, which killed 600 to 950 people. They retired Kenna and not Norbert. Central America retired Alma and not Agatha. It goes to show retirements can be random in this basin, but because many hurricanes here never affect land, they are fun to watch out to sea. Ryan1000 16:48, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



Well, the EPCc forum is the most active forum on here. I can recall such a long thread made about an AOI. YE Tropical Cyclone



94L... Maybe? The SHem probrably got a litle more activity as a whole, including the sections I archived, but I feel the Pacific forum may be the most active overall this year. The AOI hasn't exactly gotten it's act together any further since this section began, but I hope it does develop. Ryan1000 22:24, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



This AOI fails. YE Tropical Cyclone 17:15, June 14, 2011 (UTC)



Yeah, it's falling apart. Ever since Adrian and Sarika, the tropics have settled down. They will likely remain at this way until later this month or July, when we get some more EPac/WPac storms or have a storm or two to kick off the AHS. Ryan1000 23:34, June 14, 2011 (UTC)



Still 10%. It needs to organize and then it will be just fine. YE Tropical Cyclone 00:22, June 15, 2011 (UTC)



It's looking better on sattelite imagery, but it's just not developing. The area of T'storms off of Nicaragua are not showing signs of developing either; they are too close to land, and under too much shear. This wave may still become Beatriz, but I won't put any bets on it as of yet. It's certainly not out of the question... Our eyes now turn to the new storm in the WPac. Ryan1000 17:05, June 15, 2011 (UTC)



I guess Beatriz might have to wait. YE Tropical Cyclone 17:27, June 15, 2011 (UTC)



92E. Invest
Aoi:moving over SA and Panama


Technically in the ATL, but slowly moving westward. Could become Calvin in like 5 days. YE Tropical Cyclone 17:00, June 11, 2011 (UTC)



Wow, we're getting active! We have the wave south of CA which could become Beatriz, another wave which could become Calvin, and future Keila in the Arabian Sea. I'm fully on the lookout. Ryan1000 19:41, June 11, 2011 (UTC)



Does not want to enter the EPAC. YE Tropical Cyclone 13:49, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



I guess we're slowing down a bit. Oh well, we will respring into activity at one point or another. Ryan1000 14:59, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



Merged with the above system. YE Tropical Cyclone 00:20, June 15, 2011 (UTC)



Now at 10%. Yqt1001 17:08, June 15, 2011 (UTC)



This forum is dead..but might not be for long, 30% chance of development now. 216.211.40.158 12:09, June 16, 2011 (UTC)

Shoot 216! I was gonna say that! Anyway, I do think Two-E (or even Beatriz) is coming. Andrew444 13:02, June 16, 2011 (UTC)

I would not count on this system to develop. Looks very broad and unorganized. If it

organizes better, it will have a higher chance of becoming a tropical cyclone with this

system. OWEN2011 17:21, June 16, 2011 (UTC)



Sorry Andrew, I tend to always be around when the NHC updates the TWOs..but wow 2 new(ish) members in a day! Must be a new record! And yeah, the low keeps getting broader, but I feel it's because it just merged with another wave. Yqt1001 17:26, June 16, 2011 (UTC)



Well, welcome Andrew! BTW Yqt, Owen was here a litle earlier in the "2010 Retirees Pool" forum, but the tropics are slowing down a bit. The new WPac depression dissipated from an Anticyclone, and 02B is just about to make a landfall in Bangladesh, while Beatriz may have to wait. Anyhow, a little bit of activity won't hurt. Also, if you haven't noticed, we have Betting pools here too, Andrew and Owen. Ryan1000 17:46, June 16, 2011 (UTC)



92.E Invest

Investe'd at 40%. Go 92E!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 17:51, June 16, 2011 (UTC)



Ack, I was just going to post that! Yeah, I hope we get something out of this, nice to have some activity out there. I think we could see Tropical Storm Beatriz (at least) from this. HurricaneFiona 17:56, June 16, 2011 (UTC)"
 
It's a rather sad excuse for an invest as of now, but by god I hope it develops! ...And you beat me by a minute, Fiona! Ryan1000 17:57, June 16, 2011 (UTC)"

SA AOI at 10%, could be 92E soon

The South america AOI is looking a little better. It is now at 10% and may devlop in a few days. The CA AOI is not gettign it act together, but devlopment is still not out of the question.  

Adrian dies, new AOIs

Adrian has died, it is official. Convection has ceased since last night, but we have two new AOi's. One osuth of Mexico and another over Central America. Both are showing some sign of organization, and the one out to sea looks very good, 100-120 times better than ex-Adrian. However, the 7th and 8th AOI's of the seaosn do not look very good at this time.   However, neither of these systems have been mentioned on TWO.  By June 25, we may be on the D storm, which is Dora. 

The collpase of Adrian

Over the past 36 hours, Adria has collapsed. Here' is the Hurricane Wiki thread "

Hello? Is anybody home? Adrian is Cat 4 now! YE ^{Tropical Cyclone} 22:53, June 9, 2011 (UTC)

Whoa, I was not expecting that! It now has the winds up to 135 mph and 950 mbars. Reminds me of Julia of last year's AHS a bit. It has an outside chance of becoming a 5, but I won't count on that. Either way, this storm is exciting! Ryan1000 22:57, June 9, 2011 (UTC)

Wow! I was not expecting this at all either. Surprising that it is still intensifying despite dry air and cooling water, but in theory the water never stopped Julia. It's really impressive now on the satellites, it's nearly symetrical and the dry air doesn't seem to be destroying the storm as much as it was before. Even the eyewall looks good now! Yqt1001 23:10, June 9, 2011 (UTC)

It's now up to 140 mph/946 hPa. That should certainly be its peak. Darren23^Edits|Mail 00:53, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Yeah, it'll probrably die down now, but it was worth watching! The intensity forecasting can be very far off from hurricanes, as Adrian and Julia showed us. You never know what tricks mother nature can pull on us. Ryan1000 02:19, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Why is everyone thinking the storm peaked? It still has another good 24 hr left before it weakens because it is Annular. YE ^{Tropical Cyclone} 02:45, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

I guess anything still is possible, this storm is at 140mph winds right now anyways (I was doubting that it will reach category 3 strength not even 14 hours ago!). NHC says it still has 12-18 hours to develop and then in 24 hours it will start weakening, so anything is possible. Yqt1001 02:56, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Well, the stronger, the better. I think Adrian has a shot at category 5 due to it's current strength, but it all depends. Anything is possible, but I have no idea how strong it may get to be. I hope it does get to category 5 because it won't be affecting land either way, and the EPac cat. 5's are the fun ones to watch. No threat to land, and we can root for him to get as strong as possible! Ryan1000 03:02, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

I am dying for a Cat %. I JUST HAVE A FELLING IT WILL REACH IT. IF IT DID IT WOULD BE AWESOME MAN. YE ^{Tropical Cyclone} 04:06, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Cat 5 is pushing it! Seriously, its remarkable that it reached Category 4 intensity. I mean, yeah, with all that dry air around it, it's surprising that it has rapidly intensified to that. Considering all data, the I believe the Maximum potential intensity of the storm right now is at 130-130kts, with dry air and SST's being the main limiting factor. Adrian is close or is nearing its peak intensity because its traversing through progressively cooler waters. That being said, because this storm is exhibiting features reminiscent of an annular hurricane, it will maintain the peak intensity for quite a long time, possibly right until it passes the 26.5 degree boundary, and it could maintain its intensity for even longer than that. Darren23^Edits|Mail 04:02, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

You can't tell what it'll do, Darren. Daniel of 2006 almost became a cat. 5, and it likely would've had the ridge north of Daniel not headed back to Mexico like it did, leaving it over the weak steering currents near Hawaii. Annular hurricanes don't weaken as fast as other hurricanes if they are in unfavorable conditions, but they also happen to maintain their intensities more than strengthen. Anyhow, I hope it does reach category 5 because it is in the perfect position to do so. Out to sea, not affecting land, and just an all ya can root for storm. Matter of fact, this storm is not weakening as much as I otherwise had thought so, and Adrian controlls his own destiny as of now. Ryan1000 11:57, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Everyone here should be just as excited as I am. We will have another day to look at a beautiful hurricane. YE ^{Tropical Cyclone} 14:22, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Well it is starting to weaken now, so yeah I think it has hit it's peak. Although it isn't impossible for it to strengthen 25mph over the next 12 hours, it just doesn't seem too likely. But this storm was pretty awesome, it showed how unpredictable these storms are in the end and the best we can do is just hope our predictions are right. I know if I told myself 24 hours ago that this storm would become a category 4 storm I would be thinking "What!?!?!" because I was hoping for a category 3 but I didn't think even that is likely. Yqt1001 14:50, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Yep, it's now down to 135 mph and 948 mbars, and the weakening trend will continue for the next few days until it goes away forever. Anyhow, it was great to watch. I was stunned to see Adrian reach category 4, but 2 days ago i'd be stunned if it cracked a 3. It happens to mark the second consecutive year with a category 4 hurricane in June, not sure if that's a record, but it was great to watch either way! I'll be tracking it until it dies away. Ryan1000 15:22, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

A very interesting first storm of the season! I hope it's a precursor to an interesting season. HurricaneFiona 21:14, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Down to category 3 now. It's eyewall is starting to wear away and it may die down soon, but behind Adrian, we have a small area of thunderstorms south of Central America which could become future Beatriz. The Pacific is on a roll, 4 storms as of today, June 10(Aere, Songda, Adrian, and Sarika), and lots of the season left too. The Atlantic has yet to begin, but it is not at all surprising to me that the AHS hasn't started yet; it's only June 10. Ryan1000 22:06, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Oh well, our eyes turn to the AOI soon. Still looks ok. YE ^{Tropical Cyclone}

Now it's eyelike structure has fallen apart; I wouldn't be surprised if Adrian now falls down to a category 2 or lower on the next advisory; the eye itself has almost completly dissapeared. It was still fun to watch though! Ryan1000 02:20, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Adrian (sadly)Edit

Good prediction Ryan, anyways yes, it's back down to category 2 now that it's eyewall crashed on itself. Was very fun to watch, I'm adding it to my favourite storms this year list. Yqt1001 03:01, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Yeah, Adrian was so awesome. YE ^{Tropical Cyclone} 04:06, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

It was fun to watch while it lasted, but now it will (sadly) slowly die away until it's never seen again. You were a great 'cane, Adrian. Long shall you go in the Pacific hall of fame! Ryan1000 04:40, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Now it's down to a category one, 85 mph, and it will slowly die away from here. I wouldn't be surprised if today is Adrian's last day on earth, or tomorrow, but he was such a great 'cane. Ryan1000 14:37, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Adrian (sadly)Edit

Adrian need to go to the hospital. He has hypothermia. YE ^{Tropical Cyclone} 14:58, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Poor Adrian. He was such a great storm, but now he's dying away from the disease known as wind shear and infection known as dry air. Well, he was great to watch. Today might be his last day I'll ever see this once great cane. Ryan1000 15:36, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

How come you kept the (sadly) title on this one and not the Hurricane Adrian one!? :P Anyways, he was a wonderful storm to watch and I think he deserves a #1 or #2 spot on my favourite storms this year list. Yqt1001 15:45, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

YE put it as sadly first, but then I changed it... Oh well. Now I put both as (sadly) since he was really a great 'cane. Sarika in the WPac is gone, but it did kill 25 people and do 248 million in damage to China. Also, the NIO has their second storm as well(named ARB 01), but i'm not exactly going to put any bets on it becoming a monster, possibly a minor TS. The tropics are really kicking into gear. Adrian will likely become a TD later today and die out tonight. I might nickname him "Awesome Adrian", for my favorite storm of 2011 thus far. Ryan1000 19:26, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

"

Adrian peaks in intesity

After a fantastic 12 hours of satellite imagery, Adrian has peaked in strength. It officially peaked at 140 mph/946 mb. Some weakening is expected over the next several days as it moves out sea, and by four days from now, it will be gone. :) No computer models show Beatriz yet. 

Adrian now Category 4

From NHC"
000


WTPZ61 KNHC 092358

TCUEP1



HURRICANE ADRIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011

330 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011



CORRECTED INTENSITY WIND SPEED IN MILES PER HOUR



...HURRICANE ADRIAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...



SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE HURRICANE

ADRIAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES NOW SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT OR 135 MPH...

210 KM/H. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.



...SUMMARY OF 330 PM PDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION...

LOCATION...14.5N 105.2W

ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...210 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES



$$

FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS"

Adrian at 115 mph

Adrian has rapidly intensified over the night, and winds have increased to 115 mph. A large and well defined eye is visible on satellite imagery surrounded by cold could tops.

Adrian rapidly intensifying

Adrian has rapidly intensified over the next few hours. Winds have increased to 90 mph, and looks like 105 mph right now with a well-defined eye and deep convection, though is less organized than a typical major hurricane. Although all watches have been discontinued for Mexico, Adrian is forecasted to reach minimal major hurricane strength during the next 24 to 26 hours before reaching cooler waters. The SHIPS model takes it to 120 knt!

Adrian now a hurricane, RBT has it at 80 mph

Adrian is steadily intensifying, and is now a minor hurricane. The NHC assessed it at 75 mph, but the RBT has it at 80 mph. From The Weather Channel "

HURRICANE ADRIAN

- Adrian continues to strengthen south of Mexico and as to 5pm PDT Wednesday it has been upgraded to a hurricane

- As of 5pm PDT it was located about 265 miles to the SW of Acapulco, Mexico.

- Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph

- A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Mexican Coast from Acapulco westward to Punta San Telmo

- Swells are already affecting the southwest coast of Mexico

- Rip currents are also a threat

- It is expected to peak Thursday night or Friday as a category 2 hurricane

- Hurricane Adrian is moving toward the northwest at 9 mph

- It is expected to maintain a northwesterly motion through tonight and turn back toward the west-northwest Thursday

- On its projected path Adrian should remain far enough off the Mexican coast to limit the impacts there

- Showers and thunderstorms should increase along the central Mexican coast later today through the end of the week

- The strong winds and heaviest rain should remain well off shore

"  

We now have Tropical Storm Adrian

At last, Adrian is here. and it is steadily intensifying. Winds are 70 mph and pressure is 994 mb. There is evidence of an eye feature forming in the next few hours, ad it is somewhat surprising that Adrian is not a cane already. Some intensification is expected prior until reaching cooler waters in a day or so. The forecast calls for a peak of a 110 mph.  Afterward, Adrian will approach Baja, but will dissipate before reaching there. By this time next week, Adrian will be no more.

Adrian will be affecting Western Mexico tomorrow. 10 to 15 feet waves are possible, thus rip currents are dangerous threat. Swells should extend into Baja California.  Gale force wind gust and heavy rainfall is also possible.  As such, TS watches are up for parts of Mexico. This is what the Washington Post writes "
MIAMI — Forecasters say the first tropical storm of the 2011 hurricane season is gaining strength out in the Eastern Pacific.
Tropical Storm Adrian’s maximum sustained winds increased to about 60 mph early Wednesday, hours after it formed. It’s expected to get stronger, but forecasts show it moving away from land in the next few days.""

Tropical Depression One-E is here

The day has finally came, TD One-E is is here. Environmental conditions appear favorable with warm water and low wind shear. As such, this system is expected to reach hurricane strength. However, by the weekend cooler water what should introduce a weakening trend as it approaches Mexico and Baja California early next week.

TD forming from 91E

From NHC "

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS
GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. 
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

"
Now, we are in the if this trend continues crap. Hopefully we''ll have a TD by 8.

91E at 100%, not on RBT

91E continues to remain very close to TD stage. However, it is still not there, Still. The RBT keeps it as a 25 knt/1007 mb disturbance. Models continue to love 91E a sit moves northbound towards Mexico.

91E now at 90% on TWO, idiots, idiots

91E is now at 90%. It is organizing very well, but there is still some spotty convection. Dry air is fairly low, and water are very warm. Shear is low as well. This system will likely become a tropical depression soon.
This is what the SHIPS model predicts "*   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  EP912011  06/06/11  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    27    29    32    38    43    49    53    55    56    59    59
V (KT) LAND       25    26    27    29    32    38    43    49    53    55    56    59    59
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    26    27    28    32    34    36    39    41    43    46    48

SHEAR (KT)         6     8     8     8     6     3     1     3     7     4     3     9     5
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -1    -1    -1    -2     0     2     1     3     5     2     0     2
SHEAR DIR         91    98   118   143   167   217   202   358   304    29    53    45    54
SST (C)         29.6  29.7  29.9  30.0  30.1  30.2  30.1  29.9  29.5  29.2  28.8  28.5  28.4
POT. INT. (KT)   158   160   162   163   163   165   165   162   158   154   150   145   144
200 MB T (C)   -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.0 -52.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -51.2 -50.5 -51.0
TH_E DEV (C)       7     8     8     8     7     8     7     9     8     9     8    10     9
700-500 MB RH     72    69    68    66    63    61    55    51    48    47    47    44    43
GFS VTEX (KT)     10    10    11    11    12    12    13    14    16    15    15    16    16
850 MB ENV VOR    14    21    18    15    15    16     5     5     3    11     9    10     5
200 MB DIV        24     6    13    40    51    62    50    82    71    27    27    22    -7
700-850 TADV       0     0     0     0     0     0     0    -3    -6    -2     0     0     0
LAND (KM)        563   531   498   469   445   410   344   282   255   226   252   268   260
LAT (DEG N)     10.9  11.3  11.6  12.0  12.3  12.9  13.9  14.9  15.7  16.2  16.5  16.7  16.9
LONG(DEG W)     98.3  98.6  98.9  99.3  99.6 100.2 101.0 101.9 102.9 103.8 104.8 105.3 105.4
STM SPEED (KT)     3     5     5     5     4     5     7     6     6     5     4     2     1
HEAT CONTENT      40    48    55    58    59    61    28    58    41    40    34    29    27

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/  1      CX,CY:   0/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  595  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.6 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  43.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.   0.   1.   7.  15.  23.  31.  35.  38.  40.  42.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.  10.  11.  11.  12.  12.  12.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   1.   2.   2.   1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -9.  -9.  -8.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   5.   6.   8.   7.   7.   9.   8.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -8.  -8.  -8.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   2.   4.   7.  13.  18.  24.  28.  30.  32.  34.  34.

   ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011     INVEST 06/06/11  12 UTC **

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   6.9 Range: 17.0 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  18.6 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  52.0 Range:  0.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 136.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.8
D200 (10**7s-1)       :  26.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C:  36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  71.0 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    29% is   2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    24% is   3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011     INVEST 06/06/11  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##"
(from Storm2K)

On the same site this is what someone posted that really bothered me.

X said "Thank goodness it's hideous at the moment. There's nothing worse than a pointless EPAC tc."
Y said "Its not hideous...90% inst hideous by a long shot. And why are they pointless? They are much more fun to watch and observe, since only a few like to hit mexico...you can enjoy natures shows without any devistation...I dont think thats pointless by any means."
X said "Might want to look at a recent satellite image instead of using NHC probabilities as a proxy for appearance. At the moment low-level convergence is kind of lacking; convection has weakened tremendously over the past few hours.

Pointlessness is arbitrary, but generally speaking tropical cyclones in that region mean westerly low level winds over Nino regions 1+2. Nevermind that, put a decent anticyclone over a tc in that region, and the result will be westerly or northwesterly upper-level winds over a portion of the Caribbean. Yeah, I hope it doesn't form"
Z says "ECM still develops this into quite a a strong system in the 4-5 day period and most moedels are keen on it as well."
X says "Well, it looks better this morning. Vomit. It's such a shame."
Y says "Thats pretty dramatic and im not getting why such a response is needed for a simple Invest... "
Z says "You don't actually have to post in this thread because you don't like "boring" storms that don't ruin peoples lives.
"
Y says "Back on topic folks."

This really BOTHER'S ME. Why? Because why would you join Storm2k, if you do not want TC's too from. What in the H**** is wrong with you. Thank god it happened while was sleeping. Otherwise I would have went batty. Next post will be after school.

91E at 60%

91E looks very good right now and there is evidence of an eye feature forming soon, but invest don't have eyes. Shear has relaxed, and the mdoels love this one with GFS showing a TD landfall in Baja.

91E at 40%, models loving it, AOI dies

First off the AOI has died.

91E is gradually becoming more organized and there is a moderate chance of development within the nest few days as it drifts towards the Mexican coast. There, heavy rainfall is expected. The models are loving this storm. The GDL calls for a major hurricane, the FDL calls for a pressure of 960mb, the ECWH calls for a moderate/strong TS. The HWRF calls for a 75knt/986 mb system.  The GFS calls for 70 knt/990 mb cyclone.




(all images from WU)
 
91E is at 40%, and winds are 30 mph. It is stationary.