92E up to 60%, major weather cocnern

92E is gradually getting more organized. It is at 60% now, a tropical depression could form in a day or two. The waters are warm and shear is low, and the SHIPS model forecasts a hurricane out of this system.

There appears to be a major weather concern form Mexico. Heavy rainfall, up to 35 inches for that matter, is very possible along the Mexican coast.  As seen in Agatha last year, these rains could cause life-threatening  flash floods, and mudslides/landslides. Breezy conditions are likely as well. Up to $100 million in damage is possible, but I hope this does not happen.

92E forms, at 40%

We now have 92E. It is at 40% and fromed form the SA AOI, while the CA AOI is dead.

From NHC "A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE


SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A

MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD.

"




From Hurricane Wiki "Aoi:Near Central America





Small, Auree mentioned this on IRC. YE Tropical Cyclone



It just keeps getting better and better everyone! Here comes our next one! I'm counting on Beatriz soon, perhaps in a few days. Ryan1000 02:21, June 11, 2011 (UTC)



I would not be surprised to see a storm out of this. Yqt1001 03:03, June 11, 2011 (UTC)



This is barely the beginning, everyone. The outflow of Adrian may hinder (Beatriz), but it likely will follow in his great footsteps and hang out at sea. Ryan1000 04:43, June 11, 2011 (UTC)



Looking good. YE Tropical Cyclone 16:57, June 11, 2011 (UTC)



And getting better. We could easily have this storm become Beatriz and the wave near Panama become Calvin before the 20th of June. We're already trying to catch up to 2010's early hot streak, but unlike 2010, we aren't in La Nina conditions now. We're slowly starting to get more favorable here. Ryan1000 19:41, June 11, 2011 (UTC)



This wave looks better than Adrian right now (looks better, not is more tropical than Adrian). I think that this storm has a very good chance at becoming Beatriz. Yqt1001 23:02, June 11, 2011 (UTC)



No mention on TWO, idk why? YE Tropical Cyclone



It's taking its time to develop, apparently, but I would be surprised if it doesn't develop at all. Ryan1000 00:17, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



It's failing and so are these forums. YE Tropical Cyclone 13:47, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



Well the tropics are dead now that the 3 storms (Sarika, Adrian and One) are gone. I'm just waiting until another storm forms or until the NHC mentions this on their TWO. If neither of these storms form, it looks like the next active basin in the Western Hemisphere will be the Atlantic in 14 days when all conditions become favourable for an Alex like storm to smash into the US coast (or that's what the models think). Yqt1001 14:10, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



I personally do not want to watch the north Atlantic storms at all, because the storms there aren't fun to watch. The storms we like to watch on Wikia are the ones that don't affect land and we can root on for them to get as strong as possible, guilt-free ooing and ahhing, and no threat to anyone. Adrian is an example; he got quite a bit of attention because he was so fun to watch over him having no threat on land. North Atlantic storms cause lots of destruction and deaths, and storms that do that aren't fun to watch. They are heartbreaking and sad to the people they affect. Ryan1000 14:57, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



Good point Ryan, it's nice too not have the guilt of hundreds of people when you track storms (especially when you live so far from hurricanes you don't know what they are like). But I guess for now the only thing to watch is the eruption of Nabro Volcano in Eritrea. Yqt1001 15:28, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



Yeah, I have no idea of how bad people may feel after a hurricane. I mean, many people from hurricane Katrina have lost everything after that storm, including their lives. When a massive major hurricane is heading towards U.S. soil, or towards anywhere for that matter, we don't cheer for it on hurricane Wiki, we wait until the storm has passed and explain details behind the storm in the retirements at a glance section or so. It's not fun to cheer on storms there in the ATL forum. To put it bluntly, the EPac should really be the most active forum on this Wiki and not the north Atlantic because we can root on most of the hurricanes that are in this basin with no harm to anyone's feelings. Rarely do hurricanes here ever make landfall, let alone become retired. Because Mexico gets hit with hurricanes all the time, they have gotten stricter with retirement, as they have showed us last year with Alex and Karl, but they have a very strange track record for EPac names IMO. they retired Pauline of 1997, which killed 230 people and they didn't retire Tara of 1961, which killed nearly 500 people. They retired Isamel of 1995 which killed 116 people and not Liza of 1976, which killed 600 to 950 people. They retired Kenna and not Norbert. Central America retired Alma and not Agatha. It goes to show retirements can be random in this basin, but because many hurricanes here never affect land, they are fun to watch out to sea. Ryan1000 16:48, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



Well, the EPCc forum is the most active forum on here. I can recall such a long thread made about an AOI. YE Tropical Cyclone



94L... Maybe? The SHem probrably got a litle more activity as a whole, including the sections I archived, but I feel the Pacific forum may be the most active overall this year. The AOI hasn't exactly gotten it's act together any further since this section began, but I hope it does develop. Ryan1000 22:24, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



This AOI fails. YE Tropical Cyclone 17:15, June 14, 2011 (UTC)



Yeah, it's falling apart. Ever since Adrian and Sarika, the tropics have settled down. They will likely remain at this way until later this month or July, when we get some more EPac/WPac storms or have a storm or two to kick off the AHS. Ryan1000 23:34, June 14, 2011 (UTC)



Still 10%. It needs to organize and then it will be just fine. YE Tropical Cyclone 00:22, June 15, 2011 (UTC)



It's looking better on sattelite imagery, but it's just not developing. The area of T'storms off of Nicaragua are not showing signs of developing either; they are too close to land, and under too much shear. This wave may still become Beatriz, but I won't put any bets on it as of yet. It's certainly not out of the question... Our eyes now turn to the new storm in the WPac. Ryan1000 17:05, June 15, 2011 (UTC)



I guess Beatriz might have to wait. YE Tropical Cyclone 17:27, June 15, 2011 (UTC)



92E. Invest
Aoi:moving over SA and Panama


Technically in the ATL, but slowly moving westward. Could become Calvin in like 5 days. YE Tropical Cyclone 17:00, June 11, 2011 (UTC)



Wow, we're getting active! We have the wave south of CA which could become Beatriz, another wave which could become Calvin, and future Keila in the Arabian Sea. I'm fully on the lookout. Ryan1000 19:41, June 11, 2011 (UTC)



Does not want to enter the EPAC. YE Tropical Cyclone 13:49, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



I guess we're slowing down a bit. Oh well, we will respring into activity at one point or another. Ryan1000 14:59, June 13, 2011 (UTC)



Merged with the above system. YE Tropical Cyclone 00:20, June 15, 2011 (UTC)



Now at 10%. Yqt1001 17:08, June 15, 2011 (UTC)



This forum is dead..but might not be for long, 30% chance of development now. 216.211.40.158 12:09, June 16, 2011 (UTC)

Shoot 216! I was gonna say that! Anyway, I do think Two-E (or even Beatriz) is coming. Andrew444 13:02, June 16, 2011 (UTC)

I would not count on this system to develop. Looks very broad and unorganized. If it

organizes better, it will have a higher chance of becoming a tropical cyclone with this

system. OWEN2011 17:21, June 16, 2011 (UTC)



Sorry Andrew, I tend to always be around when the NHC updates the TWOs..but wow 2 new(ish) members in a day! Must be a new record! And yeah, the low keeps getting broader, but I feel it's because it just merged with another wave. Yqt1001 17:26, June 16, 2011 (UTC)



Well, welcome Andrew! BTW Yqt, Owen was here a litle earlier in the "2010 Retirees Pool" forum, but the tropics are slowing down a bit. The new WPac depression dissipated from an Anticyclone, and 02B is just about to make a landfall in Bangladesh, while Beatriz may have to wait. Anyhow, a little bit of activity won't hurt. Also, if you haven't noticed, we have Betting pools here too, Andrew and Owen. Ryan1000 17:46, June 16, 2011 (UTC)



92.E Invest

Investe'd at 40%. Go 92E!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 17:51, June 16, 2011 (UTC)



Ack, I was just going to post that! Yeah, I hope we get something out of this, nice to have some activity out there. I think we could see Tropical Storm Beatriz (at least) from this. HurricaneFiona 17:56, June 16, 2011 (UTC)"
 
It's a rather sad excuse for an invest as of now, but by god I hope it develops! ...And you beat me by a minute, Fiona! Ryan1000 17:57, June 16, 2011 (UTC)"

SA AOI at 10%, could be 92E soon

The South america AOI is looking a little better. It is now at 10% and may devlop in a few days. The CA AOI is not gettign it act together, but devlopment is still not out of the question.  

Adrian dies, new AOIs

Adrian has died, it is official. Convection has ceased since last night, but we have two new AOi's. One osuth of Mexico and another over Central America. Both are showing some sign of organization, and the one out to sea looks very good, 100-120 times better than ex-Adrian. However, the 7th and 8th AOI's of the seaosn do not look very good at this time.   However, neither of these systems have been mentioned on TWO.  By June 25, we may be on the D storm, which is Dora.