Nine-E stronger Eight-E is dead

Tropical Depression Nine-E has intensified slightly. Winds are at 35 mph, heavy rain and win are possible along the Mexican coast not to mention the strong waves. Tropical Storm watches remain in effect and could be upgraded Tropical Storm Warnings tomorrow. Some rapid intensification is very possible, and could become a hurricane in 48 hours. Meanwhile, TD 8-E has dissipated

TD Nine-E forms, Eight-E almost dead

The tropics are active one again.  What a difference a few hours can make. Tropical Depression Nine-E has formed. Winds are 30 mph, and steady intensification is possible. This system could produce heavy rain, up to 20 foot waves and gusty winds. As such, a tropical storm watch has been issued. Tropical Depression Eight-E is still a tropcial cyclone, but fairly weak. It is expected to die overnight.

TD 8-E on the verge of disspation, 93 E forms

Tropical Depression Eight-E has weakened as strong wind shear and cold water has taken toll on the system. Dissipation is expected later today. 93E has formed near the Mexican Coast. Conditions appear conductive fro some slow development.

Classic overnight RI for what now TD 8-E

Surprise. 92E has rapidly developed overnight and is now Tropical Depression Eight-E. Some slight intensification is possible, and this system could become a tropcial storm soon. However, additional intensification will likely be inhibited due to strong wind shear and cooler waters. Despite this, it is foretasted to become a tropcial storm Sunday night.

92E forms

Another area of disturbed weather (92E) has formed near the coast of Mexico. Some additional development is possible, bu the system is expected two move over cooler water.

Intresting Statistics

Year	E storm	F storm
1990	June 26	July 6
1991	July 15	July 29
1992 (most active year on record)	June 22	June 22
1993	July 15	August 7
1994	July 16	July 19
1995	August 1	August 7
1996	August 30	September 10
1997	July 12	July 14
1998	July 29	August 6
1999	August 6	August 17
2000	July 16	August 3
2001	July 20	August 6
2002	July 23	August 21
2003	July 10	July 17
2004	August 19	August 23
2005	July 18	August 9
2006	July 21	July 31
2007	Jul 31	August 7
2008	July 16	July 24
2009	July 29	August 3
2010	August 10	??

HTML Tables

The table above shows the formation of each particular storm. This years stats are in italics, with records in bold. This table includes storms since 1990 only.

Using the static maps you might be asking "We are not that behind at all". But remember that we have had only one named storm since July 1. It should also been noted that the GFS predicts a TD in about six days.

This images above shows the map of all storms this year. The tracks itself is normal for a La Nina year. The activity itself is what makes this season behind.

A year that has fallen behind, another area of intrest dies

This year sure  has fallen behind. It is truing into a Bust. I have never seen this many invests not develop, and the MJO has flipped so it is unlikely we will see anymore cyclones for a while. It could set the record for the latest "F" storm if we get no activity be early September. Even if  were are/were in an El Nino, the shear is prevent anything from developing. A this right, we might have the last active season on record. We are SEVEN DAYS from the peak. In our last La Nina (2008) we were up to "J" at this put. We were up to "G" the year before that. In a very strong La Nina in 2005, we were up to "I" at this time. In a moderate El Nina in 2003 we were up to "I". So were a two storms behind the La Nina average, and it is unlikely that we will get any activity for a few weeks. 2008 was up to "M" at that time and 2005 was up to "J". 2003 was up to "L" as well.  Or could the shear relax and make a late-season run. But in recent years September has been inactive, save 2005. So the more you look at it appears more and more likely that we will have a year below our prediction of 12-6-4. In addition, a La Nina has been confirmed

The area of interest that has been watched for a few days now has dissipated. Both tracking service agencies predict nothing. However, a tropcial wave did bring some light rain to Central America last night, but has dissipated since then.

Another area formes

Another area forms far from the Mexican coast. However, strong wind shear will inhibit development. The next name on the list is Frank.  However, THIS SEASON IS A BUST.

Area of intrest goes poof

All of the convection left has dissipated and thus no tropical cyclones are expected at this time.

90E dies, 92E could form in a few days

Invest 90E has dissipated due to cooler waters. It should also be noted that there is another area of interest out in the middle of ocean. Strong upper-level winds will likely inhibit development, but the system could become 92E soon.

90E near the Mexican coast

90E is currently near the coast of Mexico. However, this system is disorganized and significant development is not expected. Heavy rain is possible (up to 4 inches) along the coast but expect light winds. Waves up to 15 ft are possible as well.

92C dead, Offical mid-eason forcast

Invest 92C dead at last. It may rest in peace. Now, here comes the official season forecast for the Pacific. Early this year in April i predicted 19 named storms(CPAC included) 11 hurricanes, and 8 major hurricanes. However, in June the prediction has been lowered to 15-7-3. Today, I have set the prediction to 12-6-4. However, it takes only one hurricane to make it a band season as Agatha did in May for Guatemala. I give a 28% chance of a landfalling hurricane in Baja (average is 30%) with a 40% (average) chance of a landfalling hurricane in Mainland Mexico (excluding the Atlantic).

90E and ex-Dainmu could threaten California , El Nino?

Invest 90E appears to be fading, but is expected to turn Northeast and possibly bring some showers, but no significant rainfall is expected. The leftovers of Dainmu could also bring some rain and intensify the monsoon, not to mention the MJO moving over the area into the Atlantic

I personally think there is still El Nino. While the SST's in the Pacific are below normal, the shear levels in the tropcial Atlantic suggest otherwise. The amounts of shear is typical of a moderate El Nino. Average them to out we are in a weak El Nino