91E is now at 90%. It is organizing very well, but there is still some spotty convection. Dry air is fairly low, and water are very warm. Shear is low as well. This system will likely become a tropical depression soon.
This is what the SHIPS model predicts "* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912011 06/06/11 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 43 49 53 55 56 59 59
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 43 49 53 55 56 59 59
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 34 36 39 41 43 46 48
SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 8 6 3 1 3 7 4 3 9 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 2 1 3 5 2 0 2
SHEAR DIR 91 98 118 143 167 217 202 358 304 29 53 45 54
SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 162 163 163 165 165 162 158 154 150 145 144
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.0 -52.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -51.2 -50.5 -51.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 9 8 9 8 10 9
700-500 MB RH 72 69 68 66 63 61 55 51 48 47 47 44 43
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 16 15 15 16 16
850 MB ENV VOR 14 21 18 15 15 16 5 5 3 11 9 10 5
200 MB DIV 24 6 13 40 51 62 50 82 71 27 27 22 -7
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -6 -2 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 563 531 498 469 445 410 344 282 255 226 252 268 260
LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.9 13.9 14.9 15.7 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9
LONG(DEG W) 98.3 98.6 98.9 99.3 99.6 100.2 101.0 101.9 102.9 103.8 104.8 105.3 105.4
STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 4 5 7 6 6 5 4 2 1
HEAT CONTENT 40 48 55 58 59 61 28 58 41 40 34 29 27
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 7. 7. 9. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 18. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. 34.
** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011 INVEST 06/06/11 12 UTC **
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011 INVEST 06/06/11 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##"
(from Storm2K)
On the same site this is what someone posted that really bothered me.
X said "Thank goodness it's hideous at the moment. There's nothing worse than a pointless EPAC tc."
Y said "Its not hideous...90% inst hideous by a long shot. And why are they pointless? They are much more fun to watch and observe, since only a few like to hit mexico...you can enjoy natures shows without any devistation...I dont think thats pointless by any means."
X said "Might want to look at a recent satellite image instead of using NHC probabilities as a proxy for appearance. At the moment low-level convergence is kind of lacking; convection has weakened tremendously over the past few hours.
Pointlessness is arbitrary, but generally speaking tropical cyclones in that region mean westerly low level winds over Nino regions 1+2. Nevermind that, put a decent anticyclone over a tc in that region, and the result will be westerly or northwesterly upper-level winds over a portion of the Caribbean. Yeah, I hope it doesn't form"
Z says "ECM still develops this into quite a a strong system in the 4-5 day period and most moedels are keen on it as well."
X says "Well, it looks better this morning. Vomit. It's such a shame."
Y says "Thats pretty dramatic and im not getting why such a response is needed for a simple Invest...
"
Z says "You don't actually have to post in this thread because you don't like "boring" storms that don't ruin peoples lives.
"
Y says "Back on topic folks."
This really BOTHER'S ME. Why? Because why would you join Storm2k, if you do not want TC's too from. What in the H**** is wrong with you. Thank god it happened while was sleeping. Otherwise I would have went batty. Next post will be after school.
This is what the SHIPS model predicts "* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912011 06/06/11 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 43 49 53 55 56 59 59
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 38 43 49 53 55 56 59 59
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 34 36 39 41 43 46 48
SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 8 6 3 1 3 7 4 3 9 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 2 1 3 5 2 0 2
SHEAR DIR 91 98 118 143 167 217 202 358 304 29 53 45 54
SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 162 163 163 165 165 162 158 154 150 145 144
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.0 -52.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -51.2 -50.5 -51.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 9 8 9 8 10 9
700-500 MB RH 72 69 68 66 63 61 55 51 48 47 47 44 43
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 16 15 15 16 16
850 MB ENV VOR 14 21 18 15 15 16 5 5 3 11 9 10 5
200 MB DIV 24 6 13 40 51 62 50 82 71 27 27 22 -7
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -6 -2 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 563 531 498 469 445 410 344 282 255 226 252 268 260
LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.9 13.9 14.9 15.7 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9
LONG(DEG W) 98.3 98.6 98.9 99.3 99.6 100.2 101.0 101.9 102.9 103.8 104.8 105.3 105.4
STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 4 5 7 6 6 5 4 2 1
HEAT CONTENT 40 48 55 58 59 61 28 58 41 40 34 29 27
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 7. 7. 9. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 18. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. 34.
** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011 INVEST 06/06/11 12 UTC **
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011 INVEST 06/06/11 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##"
(from Storm2K)
On the same site this is what someone posted that really bothered me.
X said "Thank goodness it's hideous at the moment. There's nothing worse than a pointless EPAC tc."
Y said "Its not hideous...90% inst hideous by a long shot. And why are they pointless? They are much more fun to watch and observe, since only a few like to hit mexico...you can enjoy natures shows without any devistation...I dont think thats pointless by any means."
X said "Might want to look at a recent satellite image instead of using NHC probabilities as a proxy for appearance. At the moment low-level convergence is kind of lacking; convection has weakened tremendously over the past few hours.
Pointlessness is arbitrary, but generally speaking tropical cyclones in that region mean westerly low level winds over Nino regions 1+2. Nevermind that, put a decent anticyclone over a tc in that region, and the result will be westerly or northwesterly upper-level winds over a portion of the Caribbean. Yeah, I hope it doesn't form"
Z says "ECM still develops this into quite a a strong system in the 4-5 day period and most moedels are keen on it as well."
X says "Well, it looks better this morning. Vomit. It's such a shame."
Y says "Thats pretty dramatic and im not getting why such a response is needed for a simple Invest...
"Z says "You don't actually have to post in this thread because you don't like "boring" storms that don't ruin peoples lives.
"
Y says "Back on topic folks."
This really BOTHER'S ME. Why? Because why would you join Storm2k, if you do not want TC's too from. What in the H**** is wrong with you. Thank god it happened while was sleeping. Otherwise I would have went batty. Next post will be after school.
No comments:
Post a Comment