91E remains at 30%, new AOI forms

Convection with 91E is waxing and wanning like a moon. Some gradual development is possible of the next day or so as it remains nearly stationary. Wind shear is moderate, SSTs are warm, and dry air is moderate. Regardless on whether it becomes a tropical cyclone or not, up to 3 inches of rainfalls and 10-15 foot waves are possible from Acapulco to Manazillo. Winds of 91E are 30 mph. The most recent Tropical Update on TWC pretended like 91E never existed. However, BI does recognize the existence of 91E.  The HCW put's it   "Showers in association with an area of disturbed weather just south of the Mexican Rivera has increased. Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for further development . There is a low chance, 25 percent of TC formation during the next day or so. " The NHC TWO put's it at "

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. 

"

Another AOI has formed far from the Mexican coast. There has been no mention on TWO and any additional development will be gradual to occur as it drifts westbound.

AOI now 91E, at 30% on TWO's,

The AOI is becoming better organized, and is now 91E. The computers are really liking this one with the usually conservative SHIPS model calling for a Cat 2. the IVCN takes it to Cat 3. Most track model call for the storm to strike Mexico in about four to five days while a few have it going out to sea. (image from WU)


And yes, 91E is now at 30% on the TWO. Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for TC development and heavy rain is possible in Mexico as it meanders offshore during the next day or two.

AOI on Two, finally changing

The seam AOI has not changed much for days, it remains nearly stationary. However, there is a 20% chance of development per TWO. On land heavy rainfall and high waves are possible as long as breezy conditions.

GFS predticts Major Hurricane

The GFS is predicating a major hurricane in the EPAC next week! And it looks like Cortlata #2. Another GFS run shows a weak TD to from on Wednesday. Positive MJO is entering the EPAC, which will likely get a named storm soon.

Our season prediction have been lowered to 13-5-2, mainly due to increased shear. More about that next post.