The collpase of Adrian

Over the past 36 hours, Adria has collapsed. Here' is the Hurricane Wiki thread "

Hello? Is anybody home? Adrian is Cat 4 now! YE ^{Tropical Cyclone} 22:53, June 9, 2011 (UTC)

Whoa, I was not expecting that! It now has the winds up to 135 mph and 950 mbars. Reminds me of Julia of last year's AHS a bit. It has an outside chance of becoming a 5, but I won't count on that. Either way, this storm is exciting! Ryan1000 22:57, June 9, 2011 (UTC)

Wow! I was not expecting this at all either. Surprising that it is still intensifying despite dry air and cooling water, but in theory the water never stopped Julia. It's really impressive now on the satellites, it's nearly symetrical and the dry air doesn't seem to be destroying the storm as much as it was before. Even the eyewall looks good now! Yqt1001 23:10, June 9, 2011 (UTC)

It's now up to 140 mph/946 hPa. That should certainly be its peak. Darren23^Edits|Mail 00:53, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Yeah, it'll probrably die down now, but it was worth watching! The intensity forecasting can be very far off from hurricanes, as Adrian and Julia showed us. You never know what tricks mother nature can pull on us. Ryan1000 02:19, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Why is everyone thinking the storm peaked? It still has another good 24 hr left before it weakens because it is Annular. YE ^{Tropical Cyclone} 02:45, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

I guess anything still is possible, this storm is at 140mph winds right now anyways (I was doubting that it will reach category 3 strength not even 14 hours ago!). NHC says it still has 12-18 hours to develop and then in 24 hours it will start weakening, so anything is possible. Yqt1001 02:56, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Well, the stronger, the better. I think Adrian has a shot at category 5 due to it's current strength, but it all depends. Anything is possible, but I have no idea how strong it may get to be. I hope it does get to category 5 because it won't be affecting land either way, and the EPac cat. 5's are the fun ones to watch. No threat to land, and we can root for him to get as strong as possible! Ryan1000 03:02, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

I am dying for a Cat %. I JUST HAVE A FELLING IT WILL REACH IT. IF IT DID IT WOULD BE AWESOME MAN. YE ^{Tropical Cyclone} 04:06, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Cat 5 is pushing it! Seriously, its remarkable that it reached Category 4 intensity. I mean, yeah, with all that dry air around it, it's surprising that it has rapidly intensified to that. Considering all data, the I believe the Maximum potential intensity of the storm right now is at 130-130kts, with dry air and SST's being the main limiting factor. Adrian is close or is nearing its peak intensity because its traversing through progressively cooler waters. That being said, because this storm is exhibiting features reminiscent of an annular hurricane, it will maintain the peak intensity for quite a long time, possibly right until it passes the 26.5 degree boundary, and it could maintain its intensity for even longer than that. Darren23^Edits|Mail 04:02, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

You can't tell what it'll do, Darren. Daniel of 2006 almost became a cat. 5, and it likely would've had the ridge north of Daniel not headed back to Mexico like it did, leaving it over the weak steering currents near Hawaii. Annular hurricanes don't weaken as fast as other hurricanes if they are in unfavorable conditions, but they also happen to maintain their intensities more than strengthen. Anyhow, I hope it does reach category 5 because it is in the perfect position to do so. Out to sea, not affecting land, and just an all ya can root for storm. Matter of fact, this storm is not weakening as much as I otherwise had thought so, and Adrian controlls his own destiny as of now. Ryan1000 11:57, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Everyone here should be just as excited as I am. We will have another day to look at a beautiful hurricane. YE ^{Tropical Cyclone} 14:22, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Well it is starting to weaken now, so yeah I think it has hit it's peak. Although it isn't impossible for it to strengthen 25mph over the next 12 hours, it just doesn't seem too likely. But this storm was pretty awesome, it showed how unpredictable these storms are in the end and the best we can do is just hope our predictions are right. I know if I told myself 24 hours ago that this storm would become a category 4 storm I would be thinking "What!?!?!" because I was hoping for a category 3 but I didn't think even that is likely. Yqt1001 14:50, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Yep, it's now down to 135 mph and 948 mbars, and the weakening trend will continue for the next few days until it goes away forever. Anyhow, it was great to watch. I was stunned to see Adrian reach category 4, but 2 days ago i'd be stunned if it cracked a 3. It happens to mark the second consecutive year with a category 4 hurricane in June, not sure if that's a record, but it was great to watch either way! I'll be tracking it until it dies away. Ryan1000 15:22, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

A very interesting first storm of the season! I hope it's a precursor to an interesting season. HurricaneFiona 21:14, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Down to category 3 now. It's eyewall is starting to wear away and it may die down soon, but behind Adrian, we have a small area of thunderstorms south of Central America which could become future Beatriz. The Pacific is on a roll, 4 storms as of today, June 10(Aere, Songda, Adrian, and Sarika), and lots of the season left too. The Atlantic has yet to begin, but it is not at all surprising to me that the AHS hasn't started yet; it's only June 10. Ryan1000 22:06, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Oh well, our eyes turn to the AOI soon. Still looks ok. YE ^{Tropical Cyclone}

Now it's eyelike structure has fallen apart; I wouldn't be surprised if Adrian now falls down to a category 2 or lower on the next advisory; the eye itself has almost completly dissapeared. It was still fun to watch though! Ryan1000 02:20, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Adrian (sadly)Edit

Good prediction Ryan, anyways yes, it's back down to category 2 now that it's eyewall crashed on itself. Was very fun to watch, I'm adding it to my favourite storms this year list. Yqt1001 03:01, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Yeah, Adrian was so awesome. YE ^{Tropical Cyclone} 04:06, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

It was fun to watch while it lasted, but now it will (sadly) slowly die away until it's never seen again. You were a great 'cane, Adrian. Long shall you go in the Pacific hall of fame! Ryan1000 04:40, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Now it's down to a category one, 85 mph, and it will slowly die away from here. I wouldn't be surprised if today is Adrian's last day on earth, or tomorrow, but he was such a great 'cane. Ryan1000 14:37, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Adrian (sadly)Edit

Adrian need to go to the hospital. He has hypothermia. YE ^{Tropical Cyclone} 14:58, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Poor Adrian. He was such a great storm, but now he's dying away from the disease known as wind shear and infection known as dry air. Well, he was great to watch. Today might be his last day I'll ever see this once great cane. Ryan1000 15:36, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

How come you kept the (sadly) title on this one and not the Hurricane Adrian one!? :P Anyways, he was a wonderful storm to watch and I think he deserves a #1 or #2 spot on my favourite storms this year list. Yqt1001 15:45, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

YE put it as sadly first, but then I changed it... Oh well. Now I put both as (sadly) since he was really a great 'cane. Sarika in the WPac is gone, but it did kill 25 people and do 248 million in damage to China. Also, the NIO has their second storm as well(named ARB 01), but i'm not exactly going to put any bets on it becoming a monster, possibly a minor TS. The tropics are really kicking into gear. Adrian will likely become a TD later today and die out tonight. I might nickname him "Awesome Adrian", for my favorite storm of 2011 thus far. Ryan1000 19:26, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

"

Adrian peaks in intesity

After a fantastic 12 hours of satellite imagery, Adrian has peaked in strength. It officially peaked at 140 mph/946 mb. Some weakening is expected over the next several days as it moves out sea, and by four days from now, it will be gone. :) No computer models show Beatriz yet. 

Adrian now Category 4

From NHC"
000


WTPZ61 KNHC 092358

TCUEP1



HURRICANE ADRIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011

330 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011



CORRECTED INTENSITY WIND SPEED IN MILES PER HOUR



...HURRICANE ADRIAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...



SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE HURRICANE

ADRIAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES NOW SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT OR 135 MPH...

210 KM/H. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.



...SUMMARY OF 330 PM PDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION...

LOCATION...14.5N 105.2W

ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...210 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES



$$

FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS"

Adrian at 115 mph

Adrian has rapidly intensified over the night, and winds have increased to 115 mph. A large and well defined eye is visible on satellite imagery surrounded by cold could tops.

Adrian rapidly intensifying

Adrian has rapidly intensified over the next few hours. Winds have increased to 90 mph, and looks like 105 mph right now with a well-defined eye and deep convection, though is less organized than a typical major hurricane. Although all watches have been discontinued for Mexico, Adrian is forecasted to reach minimal major hurricane strength during the next 24 to 26 hours before reaching cooler waters. The SHIPS model takes it to 120 knt!

Adrian now a hurricane, RBT has it at 80 mph

Adrian is steadily intensifying, and is now a minor hurricane. The NHC assessed it at 75 mph, but the RBT has it at 80 mph. From The Weather Channel "

HURRICANE ADRIAN

- Adrian continues to strengthen south of Mexico and as to 5pm PDT Wednesday it has been upgraded to a hurricane

- As of 5pm PDT it was located about 265 miles to the SW of Acapulco, Mexico.

- Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph

- A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Mexican Coast from Acapulco westward to Punta San Telmo

- Swells are already affecting the southwest coast of Mexico

- Rip currents are also a threat

- It is expected to peak Thursday night or Friday as a category 2 hurricane

- Hurricane Adrian is moving toward the northwest at 9 mph

- It is expected to maintain a northwesterly motion through tonight and turn back toward the west-northwest Thursday

- On its projected path Adrian should remain far enough off the Mexican coast to limit the impacts there

- Showers and thunderstorms should increase along the central Mexican coast later today through the end of the week

- The strong winds and heaviest rain should remain well off shore

"  

We now have Tropical Storm Adrian

At last, Adrian is here. and it is steadily intensifying. Winds are 70 mph and pressure is 994 mb. There is evidence of an eye feature forming in the next few hours, ad it is somewhat surprising that Adrian is not a cane already. Some intensification is expected prior until reaching cooler waters in a day or so. The forecast calls for a peak of a 110 mph.  Afterward, Adrian will approach Baja, but will dissipate before reaching there. By this time next week, Adrian will be no more.

Adrian will be affecting Western Mexico tomorrow. 10 to 15 feet waves are possible, thus rip currents are dangerous threat. Swells should extend into Baja California.  Gale force wind gust and heavy rainfall is also possible.  As such, TS watches are up for parts of Mexico. This is what the Washington Post writes "
MIAMI — Forecasters say the first tropical storm of the 2011 hurricane season is gaining strength out in the Eastern Pacific.
Tropical Storm Adrian’s maximum sustained winds increased to about 60 mph early Wednesday, hours after it formed. It’s expected to get stronger, but forecasts show it moving away from land in the next few days.""

Tropical Depression One-E is here

The day has finally came, TD One-E is is here. Environmental conditions appear favorable with warm water and low wind shear. As such, this system is expected to reach hurricane strength. However, by the weekend cooler water what should introduce a weakening trend as it approaches Mexico and Baja California early next week.

TD forming from 91E

From NHC "

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS
GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. 
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

"
Now, we are in the if this trend continues crap. Hopefully we''ll have a TD by 8.

91E at 100%, not on RBT

91E continues to remain very close to TD stage. However, it is still not there, Still. The RBT keeps it as a 25 knt/1007 mb disturbance. Models continue to love 91E a sit moves northbound towards Mexico.

91E now at 90% on TWO, idiots, idiots

91E is now at 90%. It is organizing very well, but there is still some spotty convection. Dry air is fairly low, and water are very warm. Shear is low as well. This system will likely become a tropical depression soon.
This is what the SHIPS model predicts "*   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  EP912011  06/06/11  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    27    29    32    38    43    49    53    55    56    59    59
V (KT) LAND       25    26    27    29    32    38    43    49    53    55    56    59    59
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    26    27    28    32    34    36    39    41    43    46    48

SHEAR (KT)         6     8     8     8     6     3     1     3     7     4     3     9     5
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -1    -1    -1    -2     0     2     1     3     5     2     0     2
SHEAR DIR         91    98   118   143   167   217   202   358   304    29    53    45    54
SST (C)         29.6  29.7  29.9  30.0  30.1  30.2  30.1  29.9  29.5  29.2  28.8  28.5  28.4
POT. INT. (KT)   158   160   162   163   163   165   165   162   158   154   150   145   144
200 MB T (C)   -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.0 -52.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -51.2 -50.5 -51.0
TH_E DEV (C)       7     8     8     8     7     8     7     9     8     9     8    10     9
700-500 MB RH     72    69    68    66    63    61    55    51    48    47    47    44    43
GFS VTEX (KT)     10    10    11    11    12    12    13    14    16    15    15    16    16
850 MB ENV VOR    14    21    18    15    15    16     5     5     3    11     9    10     5
200 MB DIV        24     6    13    40    51    62    50    82    71    27    27    22    -7
700-850 TADV       0     0     0     0     0     0     0    -3    -6    -2     0     0     0
LAND (KM)        563   531   498   469   445   410   344   282   255   226   252   268   260
LAT (DEG N)     10.9  11.3  11.6  12.0  12.3  12.9  13.9  14.9  15.7  16.2  16.5  16.7  16.9
LONG(DEG W)     98.3  98.6  98.9  99.3  99.6 100.2 101.0 101.9 102.9 103.8 104.8 105.3 105.4
STM SPEED (KT)     3     5     5     5     4     5     7     6     6     5     4     2     1
HEAT CONTENT      40    48    55    58    59    61    28    58    41    40    34    29    27

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/  1      CX,CY:   0/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  595  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.6 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  43.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.   0.   1.   7.  15.  23.  31.  35.  38.  40.  42.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.  10.  11.  11.  12.  12.  12.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   1.   2.   2.   1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -9.  -9.  -8.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   5.   6.   8.   7.   7.   9.   8.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -8.  -8.  -8.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   2.   4.   7.  13.  18.  24.  28.  30.  32.  34.  34.

   ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011     INVEST 06/06/11  12 UTC **

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   6.9 Range: 17.0 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  18.6 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  52.0 Range:  0.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 136.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.8
D200 (10**7s-1)       :  26.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C:  36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  71.0 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    29% is   2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    24% is   3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011     INVEST 06/06/11  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##"
(from Storm2K)

On the same site this is what someone posted that really bothered me.

X said "Thank goodness it's hideous at the moment. There's nothing worse than a pointless EPAC tc."
Y said "Its not hideous...90% inst hideous by a long shot. And why are they pointless? They are much more fun to watch and observe, since only a few like to hit mexico...you can enjoy natures shows without any devistation...I dont think thats pointless by any means."
X said "Might want to look at a recent satellite image instead of using NHC probabilities as a proxy for appearance. At the moment low-level convergence is kind of lacking; convection has weakened tremendously over the past few hours.

Pointlessness is arbitrary, but generally speaking tropical cyclones in that region mean westerly low level winds over Nino regions 1+2. Nevermind that, put a decent anticyclone over a tc in that region, and the result will be westerly or northwesterly upper-level winds over a portion of the Caribbean. Yeah, I hope it doesn't form"
Z says "ECM still develops this into quite a a strong system in the 4-5 day period and most moedels are keen on it as well."
X says "Well, it looks better this morning. Vomit. It's such a shame."
Y says "Thats pretty dramatic and im not getting why such a response is needed for a simple Invest... "
Z says "You don't actually have to post in this thread because you don't like "boring" storms that don't ruin peoples lives.
"
Y says "Back on topic folks."

This really BOTHER'S ME. Why? Because why would you join Storm2k, if you do not want TC's too from. What in the H**** is wrong with you. Thank god it happened while was sleeping. Otherwise I would have went batty. Next post will be after school.

91E at 60%

91E looks very good right now and there is evidence of an eye feature forming soon, but invest don't have eyes. Shear has relaxed, and the mdoels love this one with GFS showing a TD landfall in Baja.

91E at 40%, models loving it, AOI dies

First off the AOI has died.

91E is gradually becoming more organized and there is a moderate chance of development within the nest few days as it drifts towards the Mexican coast. There, heavy rainfall is expected. The models are loving this storm. The GDL calls for a major hurricane, the FDL calls for a pressure of 960mb, the ECWH calls for a moderate/strong TS. The HWRF calls for a 75knt/986 mb system.  The GFS calls for 70 knt/990 mb cyclone.




(all images from WU)
 
91E is at 40%, and winds are 30 mph. It is stationary.