993 0.610972 994 0.398854 995 -0.90431 996 -0.084949 997 0.143107 998 -0.302822 999 0.487957 1000 0.78263 1001 0.096265 1002 -1.182662 1003 -1.08856 1004 -0.721918 1005 -1.811442 1006 -1.636119 1007 -1.557574 1008 -1.278072 1009 -0.634053 1010 -0.420506 1011 -0.595148 1012 -0.615128 1013 -1.404196 1014 -0.876231 1015 -0.766742 1016 -0.874224 1017 -0.672612 1018 -0.29844 1019 -1.014836 1020 -0.908856 1021 -0.564654 1022 -0.697949 1023 -0.472793 1024 -1.075726 1025 -1.406949 1026 -1.743798 1027 -1.692331 1028 -1.41769 1029 -1.055025 1030 -0.660392 1031 -1.164732 1032 -1.8232 1033 -1.730899 1034 -1.553514 1035 -1.715771 1036 -1.389029 1037 -1.261503 1038 -1.603696 1039 -1.711388 1040 -1.331025 1041 -1.259484 1042 -1.572729 1043 -2.098637 1044 -2.032666 1045 -1.488919 1046 -0.680744 1047 -1.964579 1048 -1.972432 1049 -1.24561 1050 -0.63808 1051 -0.353681 1052 -0.73183 1053 -1.034759 1054 -1.338263 1055 -1.275902 1056 -1.18306 1057 -0.68862 1058 -1.151295 1059 -1.589114 1060 -1.348268 1061 -0.721187 1062 -1.513371 1063 -1.328924 1064 -0.963789 1065 -1.407793 1066 -1.512335 1067 -1.70579 1068 -1.704043 1069 -1.356449 1070 -1.005761 1071 -0.78434 1072 -1.257634 1073 -1.318024 1074 -1.87775 1075 -0.953864 1076 -0.98513 1077 -0.860277 1078 -0.609671 1079 -0.769308 1080 -0.31998 1081 -0.06767 1082 -0.180393 1083 -0.568871 1084 0.176556 1085 0.54737 1086 -0.125704 1087 -0.696355 1088 -0.323303 1089 -0.868453 1090 -0.836803 1091 -0.599694 1092 -0.015811 1093 -1.122061 1094 -1.381153 1095 -1.27344 1096 -0.590176 1097 -0.183164 1098 -0.655316 1099 -0.892356 1100 -0.042688 1101 -0.778147 1102 -1.166141 1103 -1.277443 1104 -0.900226 1105 -0.595082 1106 -0.554687 1107 -0.229431 1108 -0.592911 1109 -0.304366 1110 -0.348862 1111 -0.280658 1112 -0.5546 1113 -1.584251 1114 -1.695654 1115 -0.833832 1116 -0.810894 1117 -0.399839 1118 -0.190328 1119 -0.38025 1120 -1.053086 1121 -2.063962 1122 -0.995217 1123 -0.97924 1124 -0.59804 1125 -1.184244 1126 -2.021974 1127 -2.075859 1128 -1.62641 1129 -1.078963 1130 -0.975118 1131 -1.082897 1132 -1.646889 1133 -1.990093 1134 -2.242722 1135 -1.906085 1136 -1.626903 1137 -1.333253 1138 -1.318408 1139 -0.847591 1140 -0.562991 1141 -0.671182 1142 -1.446561 1143 -1.43945 1144 -1.133246 1145 -0.603797 1146 -1.372836 1147 -1.509173 1148 -0.982903 1149 -1.003451 1150 -1.263269 1151 -1.420654 1152 -1.000732 1153 -1.047644 1154 -1.411954 1155 -0.611392 1156 -1.144599 1157 -1.065554 1158 -1.299744 1159 -0.616306 1160 -0.375592 1161 -0.009208 1162 0.054026 1163 0.08911 1164 -0.071552 1165 0.39434 1166 0.517937 1167 0.670961 1168 0.070316 1169 -0.11498 1170 -0.561616 1171 -0.472572 1172 0.007436 1173 0.023801 1174 -0.496742 1175 -0.354577 1176 -0.388739 1177 -0.107419 1178 -0.408236 1179 -1.091588 1180 -0.598183 1181 -0.015963 1182 -0.747687 1183 -0.568039 1184 -0.001084 1185 -0.112472 1186 -0.585591 1187 -0.535452 1188 -0.727372 1189 -0.8327 1190 -0.776688 1191 -0.36077 1192 -0.751463 1193 -0.273914 1194 -0.16657 1195 -0.02139 1196 -0.588177 1197 -0.555676 1198 -0.306244 1199 -0.830332 1200 -0.293892 1201 -0.41836 1202 -0.755466 1203 -0.578547 1204 0.02514 1205 0.364368 1206 0.115774 1207 -0.048756 1208 -0.346811 1209 0.361734 1210 0.541442 1211 0.340128 1212 0.206612 1213 -0.242467 1214 -0.953192 1215 -1.283182 1216 -0.994999 1217 -0.999316 1218 -1.321135 1219 -1.075501 1220 0.019859 1221 -0.503318 1222 -0.296648 1223 -0.768875 1224 -0.834684 1225 -0.970576 1226 -1.35582 1227 -2.342246 1228 -0.875747 1229 -1.080037 1230 -1.437344 1231 -0.601289 1232 -0.727147 1233 -0.607046 1234 -0.625688 1235 -0.593154 1236 -1.149176 1237 -0.759566 1238 0.069188 1239 0.48276 1240 0.331269 1241 0.626653 1242 0.238832 1243 -0.15804 1244 -0.623536 1245 -0.779091 1246 -0.595158 1247 -0.376275 1248 0.145211 1249 0.685544 1250 0.218477 1251 -0.785764 1252 -0.541929 1253 0.087606 1254 -0.585612 1255 -0.750871 1256 -0.470351 1257 -0.148001 1258 -0.535967 1259 -0.196543 1260 0.037565 1261 0.394084 1262 -0.191711 1263 -1.099801 1264 -0.843149 1265 -1.226955 1266 -0.928631 1267 -0.62874 1268 -0.109501 1269 0.018945 1270 0.16762 1271 0.432772 1272 0.313552 1273 0.365109 1274 0.129411 1275 0.498041 1276 -0.746164 1277 -0.935273 1278 -0.454016 1279 -0.406842 1280 -0.740792 1281 -0.341408 1282 0.702109 1283 0.912973 1284 -0.463374 1285 -1.732417 1286 -1.517522 1287 -1.32636 1288 -1.915036 1289 -1.036383 1290 -0.835435 1291 -1.054331 1292 -1.030097 1293 -1.466418 1294 -1.014433 1295 -1.070027 1296 -2.442642 1297 -1.960667 1298 -1.548417 1299 -1.355037 1300 -1.470884 1301 -0.495974 1302 -1.270152 1303 -0.68407 1304 -0.453701 1305 -0.565427 1306 0.081823 1307 -0.903918 1308 -1.23521 1309 -1.154312 1310 -0.886475 1311 -0.286229 1312 -0.022032 1313 0.648643 1314 0.389173 1315 0.153505 1316 0.066651 1317 0.86228 1318 0.448449 1319 1.014303 1320 1.225745 1321 1.17301 1322 0.090789 1323 -0.092578 1324 -0.02955 1325 -0.225046 1326 -0.696518 1327 -0.592719 1328 -0.301297 1329 -1.163605 1330 0.048851 1331 0.398527 1332 0.864271 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-0.231702 1403 -0.277435 1404 0.183528 1405 -0.391875 1406 -0.234777 1407 -0.600903 1408 -0.502344 1409 -0.767239 1410 -0.812857 1411 -1.259003 1412 -0.616641 1413 -1.858224 1414 -1.796555 1415 -1.104645 1416 -0.969762 1417 -0.325691 1418 -0.276241 1419 -0.50692 1420 0.32884 1421 -0.217864 1422 -0.721131 1423 -0.124767 1424 -0.02346 1425 -0.318207 1426 -0.651339 1427 -0.386498 1428 0.325286 1429 -0.056451 1430 -0.522373 1431 -0.029831 1432 0.229296 1433 0.483749 1434 0.166761 1435 -0.010852 1436 0.073835 1437 0.268476 1438 0.052154 1439 -0.032177 1440 -0.183171 1441 0.550548 1442 0.599248 1443 0.097167 1444 -0.521206 1445 -0.042516 1446 -0.073117 1447 -0.163041 1448 0.165561 1449 -0.040434 1450 -0.335187 1451 -0.237963 1452 -0.836295 1453 0.006911 1454 0.261774 1455 0.718525 1456 0.580117 1457 -0.011794 1458 0.654666 1459 0.842696 1460 -0.002527 1461 0.456873 1462 1.129018 1463 1.605103 1464 0.344982 1465 0.190076 1466 0.929238 1467 2.139513 1468 0.814102 1469 1.152639 1470 1.185804 1471 1.181171 1472 1.626164 1473 0.827436 1474 0.755216 1475 0.693094 1476 0.57276 1477 0.91391 1478 1.520277 1479 0.825218 1480 0.661633 1481 1.449893 1482 1.69329 1483 1.545744 1484 1.519372 1485 1.327506 1486 0.990543 1487 0.71146 1488 1.405382 1489 2.124125 1490 0.976058 1491 0.267228 1492 -0.393873 1493 -0.687513 1494 -0.245825 1495 0.628098 1496 0.45645 1497 -0.81464 1498 0.018049 1499 1.131384 1500 0.404067 1501 0.381111 1502 0.059652 1503 0.879983 1504 0.649254 1505 0.080995 1506 -0.138661 1507 0.024617 1508 0.040646 1509 0.999553 1510 0.957963 1511 0.511068 1512 0.599314 1513 0.585284 1514 0.620893 1515 0.789714 1516 1.080725 1517 1.570804 1518 0.484588 1519 0.23149 1520 -0.083166 1521 -1.112665 1522 -0.232256 1523 -0.101407 1524 0.312418 1525 0.154716 1526 0.663851 1527 0.923075 1528 1.006438 1529 0.482802 1530 0.801262 1531 0.829609 1532 0.91638 1533 0.774917 1534 1.308491 1535 1.575017 1536 1.264737 1537 1.271726 1538 1.170126 1539 1.09405 1540 1.798117 1541 0.69873 1542 0.185965 1543 0.705668 1544 0.339698 1545 0.652508 1546 1.168751 1547 0.529866 1548 0.214871 1549 0.492315 1550 1.069851 1551 1.724084 1552 1.676379 1553 1.102262 1554 1.396898 1555 0.933665 1556 1.662383 1557 1.930751 1558 2.280423 1559 0.834958 1560 1.056728 1561 1.021918 1562 1.344869 1563 0.949415 1564 1.156426 1565 1.444223 1566 0.837973 1567 1.580616 1568 1.815627 1569 1.707907 1570 1.049179 1571 -0.147945 1572 -1.007551 1573 -0.006645 1574 -0.302974 1575 -0.023413 1576 0.411687 1577 0.646621 1578 0.774942 1579 0.275617 1580 -0.122376 1581 0.548694 1582 0.735238 1583 0.515207 1584 -0.106949 1585 -1.361453 1586 -0.398009 1587 0.017147 1588 -0.287786 1589 1.031045 1590 -0.16732 1591 -0.238208 1592 0.250067 1593 0.825646 1594 0.88766 1595 0.684766 1596 0.721609 1597 -0.222325 1598 0.290258 1599 0.681911 1600 0.751776 1601 0.083214 1602 0.10056 1603 -0.234864 1604 0.262864 1605 0.849718 1606 0.436897 1607 -0.259139 1608 -0.165694 1609 0.302042 1610 0.673774 1611 0.598672 1612 0.20541 1613 -1.362639 1614 -0.411573 1615 0.031596 1616 0.111647 1617 0.322714 1618 0.868994 1619 -0.013989 1620 -0.112718 1621 -0.073803 1622 -0.217472 1623 -0.030238 1624 -0.539222 1625 -0.310044 1626 -0.657259 1627 -0.008733 1628 -0.070805 1629 0.195911 1630 0.305666 1631 -0.500961 1632 -0.554729 1633 -1.274516 1634 -1.206673 1635 0.092216 1636 -0.202549 1637 -0.023532 1638 -0.278062 1639 0.374695 1640 0.06171 1641 0.130005 1642 0.009786 1643 -0.401659 1644 -0.331491 1645 0.230724 1646 0.435129 1647 0.191984 1648 -0.270052 1649 -0.006447 1650 -0.160589 1651 0.495954 1652 -0.176603 1653 -0.453989 1654 -1.785658 1655 -1.251507 1656 -0.479212 1657 0.195077 1658 0.264941 1659 0.170791 1660 0.109458 1661 0.344736 1662 0.198788 1663 -0.402643 1664 -0.552508 1665 -0.572796 1666 -1.017732 1667 -0.854293 1668 -0.902041 1669 -1.1404 1670 -1.483805 1671 -0.435451 1672 -0.846026 1673 -0.624866 1674 0.044525 1675 -0.942151 1676 -1.129961 1677 -0.445025 1678 -0.184142 1679 -0.577237 1680 0.313476 1681 -0.537008 1682 0.434756 1683 0.860183 1684 0.622428 1685 0.302433 1686 0.103492 1687 0.025498 1688 0.475276 1689 0.849942 1690 0.277944 1691 -0.361731 1692 0.446038 1693 -0.375813 1694 0.093392 1695 0.411029 1696 -0.009447 1697 -0.761918 1698 -1.109654 1699 -0.442921 1700 -0.508167 1701 -0.459392 1702 -0.30044 1703 -1.098943 1704 -1.11103 1705 -0.092923 1706 -0.207877 1707 -0.99122 1708 -0.79085 1709 -0.947475 1710 -1.214577 1711 -1.08523 1712 -0.282613 1713 -0.666362 1714 -0.941362 1715 -0.706593 1716 -1.384563 1717 -0.80717 1718 -0.01194 1719 0.20497 1720 0.206402 1721 0.179836 1722 -0.611172 1723 -0.731583 1724 -0.412099 1725 0.097407 1726 1.077143 1727 0.650328 1728 -0.467444 1729 -0.621567 1730 -0.156354 1731 0.049617 1732 0.543229 1733 0.159322 1734 0.052126 1735 -0.821183 1736 -0.923233 1737 -0.442791 1738 -0.120693 1739 -0.253995 1740 -0.020835 1741 1.019209 1742 -0.061946 1743 0.354656 1744 0.853713 1745 1.078364 1746 1.394988 1747 2.831877 1748 1.459992 1749 0.42351 1750 0.199256 1751 0.69952 1752 -0.712596 1753 -1.381643 1754 -1.24915 1755 -0.143025 1756 0.234845 1757 0.64215 1758 -0.051235 1759 0.216878 1760 0.76153 1761 -0.098752 1762 -0.539926 1763 -0.600555 1764 -0.006212 1765 -0.647596 1766 -0.004559 1767 0.00365 1768 0.334786 1769 0.591422 1770 -0.146515 1771 0.926813 1772 1.158734 1773 0.186011 1774 0.710338 1775 1.053725 1776 0.713237 1777 -0.200015 1778 -0.368472 1779 -0.202707 1780 -0.148201 1781 -0.32036 1782 -1.359598 1783 -0.926229 1784 -0.204053 1785 -0.041777 1786 -0.338761 1787 -0.039623 1788 -0.382073 1789 -0.329045 1790 -0.413653 1791 -0.044144 1792 1.563367 1793 1.324541 1794 0.228215 1795 -0.116613 1796 0.114221 1797 -0.17068 1798 -0.124054 1799 0.527364 1800 0.612193 1801 -0.073362 1802 0.468676 1803 0.006852 1804 0.664918 1805 0.605156 1806 -0.045173 1807 -0.881666 1808 -0.415171 1809 -0.725609 1810 -1.103365 1811 -0.051995 1812 -0.3551 1813 -0.557216 1814 -0.235932 1815 0.115775 1816 -0.479874 1817 0.622076 1818 0.899885 1819 0.090143 1820 -0.16326 1821 0.523148 1822 -0.237079 1823 -1.818157 1824 -0.930514 1825 0.437268 1826 -0.44878 1827 -0.379013 1828 0.279389 1829 -0.741129 1830 -0.935043 1831 -0.08667 1832 1.108124 1833 1.68853 1834 0.668147 1835 0.703455 1836 -0.33061 1837 0.154837 1838 1.146977 1839 1.843768 1840 1.032351 1841 0.582955 1842 0.535094 1843 0.207931 1844 0.292297 1845 -0.139314 1846 0.478825 1847 0.952324 1848 0.564335 1849 1.152055 1850 1.539869 1851 0.747573 1852 1.252445 1853 1.774079 1854 1.012012 1855 0.76854 1856 0.164832 1857 -1.835267 1858 -0.445403 1859 0.643279 1860 0.419625 1861 0.632413 1862 0.741705 1863 0.471816 1864 -0.161951 1865 -0.114174 1866 0.61643 1867 0.847676 1868 1.836156 1869 1.940441 1870 1.355814 1871 1.032728 1872 0.750741 1873 0.507736 1874 1.251801 1875 0.798435 1876 0.846841 1877 0.345468 1878 -0.1924 1879 -0.902646 1880 -0.952197 1881 -1.097778 1882 -0.388679 1883 -0.812226 1884 0.084565 1885 -0.542718 1886 -0.510186 1887 -0.067269 1888 0.063205 1889 0.948075 1890 1.079399 1891 1.41614 1892 0.712042 1893 0.672577 1894 0.174958 1895 0.072643 1896 -0.000117 1897 -0.067704 1898 -0.051823 1899 -0.183915 1900 -1.143214 1901 -0.330813 1902 -0.613554 1903 -0.243075 1904 -0.728491 1905 0.124799 1906 0.89985 1907 1.217414 1908 0.343433 1909 0.593117 1910 1.023612 1911 1.239603 1912 0.539644 1913 0.260791 1914 0.741937 1915 1.383711 1916 0.904242 1917 0.500912 1918 1.612198 1919 1.462253 1920 1.790239 1921 1.760437 1922 1.780852 1923 0.535021 1924 0.431274 1925 0.265444 1926 0.74952 1927 1.157571 1928 0.689714 1929 0.121048 1930 -0.120168 1931 0.79548 1932 0.683273 1933 0.460702 1934 -0.706578 1935 -0.404145 1936 -0.05109 1937 0.266303 1938 1.118075 1939 0.616829 1940 0.7788 1941 1.126378 1942 0.148665 1943 0.545426 1944 -0.092565 1945 -0.456846 1946 -0.514702 1947 -0.408623 1948 -0.621761 1949 -0.229414 1950 -0.783732 1951 -0.952573 1952 -0.220682 1953 -0.969309 1954 -0.863335 1955 -0.63819 1956 -1.099465 1957 -0.613956 1958 0.116571 1959 -0.347128 1960 -0.631982 1961 -1.45981 1962 -1.482087 1963 -0.59125 1964 -0.751903 1965 -0.711183 1966 -0.689263 1967 -0.174068 1968 -0.279324 1969 0.737198 1970 0.620375 1971 -0.255987 1972 -0.087468 1973 -0.0651 1974 -0.404718 1975 0.218742 1976 -0.013717 1977 0.168996 1978 0.408265 1979 0.644076 1980 0.807031 1981 0.522987 1982 -0.032361 1983 0.982663 1984 0.356553 1985 0.463944 1986 0.356153 1987 0.113256 1988 0.506175 1989 0.617055 1990 -0.080409 1991 -0.244111 1992 0.628857 1993 1.150391 1994 0.293471 1995 0.427283 1996 0.138711
Saturday, November 13, 2010
PDO value
Pacific Decade Oscillation values form the period 993-1996. Data from McDonald 2005.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Comapring this year with other years
| 1988 | 15 |
| 1989 | 17 |
| 1990 | 21 |
| 1991 | 14 |
| 1992 | 28 |
| 1993 | 15 |
| 1994 | 20 |
| 1995 | 10 |
| 1996 | 9 |
| 1997 | 19 |
| 1998 | 13 |
| 1999 | 9 |
| 2000 | 19 |
| 2001 | 15 |
| 2002 | 14 |
| 2003 | 16 |
| 2004 | 13 |
| 2005 | 15 |
| 2006 | 19 |
| 2007 | 11 |
| 2008 | 17 |
| 2009 | 20 |
| 2010 | 6 |
| Average | 14 |
96E and hurricane season outlook
96E has formed near Sinora today. Soem slow devlopment is posible and a tropical depression could form in abotu two days as it parrels the coast of Mexico. Heavy rains are possible as the system passes offshore. This system will likely strike Baja California in about three days.
This season appers to be ending at 6-3-2. However, the basin could become active once more in October. We say 8-4-3 when it is finshed.
This season appers to be ending at 6-3-2. However, the basin could become active once more in October. We say 8-4-3 when it is finshed.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Frnak pekaing in intesity
Hurricane Frank has peaked in intensity with wind of 90 mph. It is now down to 65 mph. Additional weakening is expected.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Hurricane Frank slightly stronger
Frank is slowly intensifying. Winds have been increased to 85 mph. However, further intensification...if any.. will be slight over the next 12 hours. A weakening trend is expected to begin as shear increases and Frank moves over cooler waters. However, the leftovers could move into Baja California in about a week. Some rain and tropical storm force winds are possible near Socorro Islands s this system make its closest approach to the island in a day or two.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Frank a hurricane at last
Frank is gradually intensifying an dis officially a hurricnae at last. some intensification is possible, and it could reach winds of 80 mph soon. IT is foretasted to peak as a 85 mph hurricane. It should be noted the Baja is in the cone of uncertainty now with heavy waves possible along the NW Mexico's coastline.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Frank not intesifing
Frank has became according to the NHC "becoming less organized". Winds are at 75 mph (65 really), and this system could become a hurricnae at any time if convection reorganizes. Frank is no longer expected to impact land.
Frank almost a hurrciane
Tropical Storm Frank is moving away from Mexico for now. However, it has became better organized. Winds have increased to 65 mph, 10 mph shy of hurricane intensity. Expect hurricane status soon with an outside chance of major hurricane status as shear decreases. Although the watches have been dropped, heavy rains and up to 15 feet waves is still possible. It is forecast to turn back to the north, and could strike Baja California in about five days.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Frank weakens, but expected to reintesify
Tropical Storm Frank has weakened today down to 50 mph. However, re-intensification is expected. It could become a hurricane by Wednesday.
Frank maintaing it's intesity
Tropical Storm Frank is maintaining it intensity due to some wind shear. The CDO has dissipated, but shear could decrease soon allowing for some additional intensification. It is expect to become a minimal hurricnae near Baja California. There is a lot of uncertainty in the storms track. the GDFL, HWERF, GFS, and the some of the minor ensemble models take this system very near or onshore Baja. Hopefully, Baja Insider (the hurricane Baja California agency) will give a good update today. Another are of disturbed weather is located near Frnak, but development of this system is not anticipated. In other news, the have fowered a hurricane potential impact scale towards Erick Blake according to the NHC webmaster.
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Update
| Year | E storm | F storm |
| 1990 | June 26 | July 6 |
| 1991 | July 15 | July 29 |
| 1992 (most active year on record) | June 22 | June 22 |
| 1993 | July 15 | August 7 |
| 1994 | July 16 | July 19 |
| 1995 | August 1 | August 7 |
| 1996 | August 30 | September 10 |
| 1997 | July 12 | July 14 |
| 1998 | July 29 | August 6 |
| 1999 | August 6 | August 17 |
| 2000 | July 16 | August 3 |
| 2001 | July 20 | August 6 |
| 2002 | July 23 | August 21 |
| 2003 | July 10 | July 17 |
| 2004 | August 19 | August 23 |
| 2005 | July 18 | August 9 |
| 2006 | July 21 | July 31 |
| 2007 | Jul 31 | August 7 |
| 2008 | July 16 | July 24 |
| 2009 | July 29 | August 3 |
| 2010 | August 10 | August 22 |
The table above shows the formation of each particular storm. This years stats are in italics, with records in bold. This table includes storms since 1990 only. On average, the E storms forms in July with the F in August.
Frank begining to rapidly intesify
Frank is beiging to itesfy very quickly, and coud reac hurricae intesity in about 24 hours. Watches and warnings remain in effect. Heavy rainfall up to 3 inches and gusty winds are execpted.
9-E now Tropcial Storm Frank
Breaking News:Tropcial Depression Nine-E now Tropical Storm Frank. The effects mentioned below are the same. This system is over 90 degree waters, and could strengthen rapidly.
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Nine-E stronger Eight-E is dead
Tropical Depression Nine-E has intensified slightly. Winds are at 35 mph, heavy rain and win are possible along the Mexican coast not to mention the strong waves. Tropical Storm watches remain in effect and could be upgraded Tropical Storm Warnings tomorrow. Some rapid intensification is very possible, and could become a hurricane in 48 hours. Meanwhile, TD 8-E has dissipated
TD Nine-E forms, Eight-E almost dead
The tropics are active one again. What a difference a few hours can make. Tropical Depression Nine-E has formed. Winds are 30 mph, and steady intensification is possible. This system could produce heavy rain, up to 20 foot waves and gusty winds. As such, a tropical storm watch has been issued. Tropical Depression Eight-E is still a tropcial cyclone, but fairly weak. It is expected to die overnight.
TD 8-E on the verge of disspation, 93 E forms
Tropical Depression Eight-E has weakened as strong wind shear and cold water has taken toll on the system. Dissipation is expected later today. 93E has formed near the Mexican Coast. Conditions appear conductive fro some slow development.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Classic overnight RI for what now TD 8-E
Surprise. 92E has rapidly developed overnight and is now Tropical Depression Eight-E. Some slight intensification is possible, and this system could become a tropcial storm soon. However, additional intensification will likely be inhibited due to strong wind shear and cooler waters. Despite this, it is foretasted to become a tropcial storm Sunday night.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
92E forms
Another area of disturbed weather (92E) has formed near the coast of Mexico. Some additional development is possible, bu the system is expected two move over cooler water.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Intresting Statistics
| Year | E storm | F storm |
| 1990 | June 26 | July 6 |
| 1991 | July 15 | July 29 |
| 1992 (most active year on record) | June 22 | June 22 |
| 1993 | July 15 | August 7 |
| 1994 | July 16 | July 19 |
| 1995 | August 1 | August 7 |
| 1996 | August 30 | September 10 |
| 1997 | July 12 | July 14 |
| 1998 | July 29 | August 6 |
| 1999 | August 6 | August 17 |
| 2000 | July 16 | August 3 |
| 2001 | July 20 | August 6 |
| 2002 | July 23 | August 21 |
| 2003 | July 10 | July 17 |
| 2004 | August 19 | August 23 |
| 2005 | July 18 | August 9 |
| 2006 | July 21 | July 31 |
| 2007 | Jul 31 | August 7 |
| 2008 | July 16 | July 24 |
| 2009 | July 29 | August 3 |
| 2010 | August 10 | ?? |
The table above shows the formation of each particular storm. This years stats are in italics, with records in bold. This table includes storms since 1990 only.
Using the static maps you might be asking "We are not that behind at all". But remember that we have had only one named storm since July 1. It should also been noted that the GFS predicts a TD in about six days.
A year that has fallen behind, another area of intrest dies
This year sure has fallen behind. It is truing into a Bust. I have never seen this many invests not develop, and the MJO has flipped so it is unlikely we will see anymore cyclones for a while. It could set the record for the latest "F" storm if we get no activity be early September. Even if were are/were in an El Nino, the shear is prevent anything from developing. A this right, we might have the last active season on record. We are SEVEN DAYS from the peak. In our last La Nina (2008) we were up to "J" at this put. We were up to "G" the year before that. In a very strong La Nina in 2005, we were up to "I" at this time. In a moderate El Nina in 2003 we were up to "I". So were a two storms behind the La Nina average, and it is unlikely that we will get any activity for a few weeks. 2008 was up to "M" at that time and 2005 was up to "J". 2003 was up to "L" as well. Or could the shear relax and make a late-season run. But in recent years September has been inactive, save 2005. So the more you look at it appears more and more likely that we will have a year below our prediction of 12-6-4. In addition, a La Nina has been confirmed
The area of interest that has been watched for a few days now has dissipated. Both tracking service agencies predict nothing. However, a tropcial wave did bring some light rain to Central America last night, but has dissipated since then.
The area of interest that has been watched for a few days now has dissipated. Both tracking service agencies predict nothing. However, a tropcial wave did bring some light rain to Central America last night, but has dissipated since then.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Another area formes
Another area forms far from the Mexican coast. However, strong wind shear will inhibit development. The next name on the list is Frank. However, THIS SEASON IS A BUST.
Area of intrest goes poof
All of the convection left has dissipated and thus no tropical cyclones are expected at this time.
Monday, August 16, 2010
90E dies, 92E could form in a few days
Invest 90E has dissipated due to cooler waters. It should also be noted that there is another area of interest out in the middle of ocean. Strong upper-level winds will likely inhibit development, but the system could become 92E soon.
90E near the Mexican coast
90E is currently near the coast of Mexico. However, this system is disorganized and significant development is not expected. Heavy rain is possible (up to 4 inches) along the coast but expect light winds. Waves up to 15 ft are possible as well.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
92C dead, Offical mid-eason forcast
Invest 92C dead at last. It may rest in peace. Now, here comes the official season forecast for the Pacific. Early this year in April i predicted 19 named storms(CPAC included) 11 hurricanes, and 8 major hurricanes. However, in June the prediction has been lowered to 15-7-3. Today, I have set the prediction to 12-6-4. However, it takes only one hurricane to make it a band season as Agatha did in May for Guatemala. I give a 28% chance of a landfalling hurricane in Baja (average is 30%) with a 40% (average) chance of a landfalling hurricane in Mainland Mexico (excluding the Atlantic).
90E and ex-Dainmu could threaten California , El Nino?
Invest 90E appears to be fading, but is expected to turn Northeast and possibly bring some showers, but no significant rainfall is expected. The leftovers of Dainmu could also bring some rain and intensify the monsoon, not to mention the MJO moving over the area into the Atlantic
I personally think there is still El Nino. While the SST's in the Pacific are below normal, the shear levels in the tropcial Atlantic suggest otherwise. The amounts of shear is typical of a moderate El Nino. Average them to out we are in a weak El Nino
I personally think there is still El Nino. While the SST's in the Pacific are below normal, the shear levels in the tropcial Atlantic suggest otherwise. The amounts of shear is typical of a moderate El Nino. Average them to out we are in a weak El Nino
Saturday, August 14, 2010
90E near Soccoro Island
Invest 90E has changed little in modernization. The systme is currently near Socorro Island. Up to 3 inches of rain and 30 mph winds are possible. However, the main threat will be the waves. Up to 25 foot waves are possible. Stay out of the water PLEASE.
90E is back, could we have 92E soon, Cookie cutter basin?
Invest 90E has came back once again. Some development is possible, but is no threat to land. 92C has changed little in organization, and no additional development is expected. There is another area of interest south of the Mexican coast, but strong wind shear is expected to prevent further development.
The EPAC has recently been reffered to as the "cookie curter basin". However, IMO they were several interesting storms since 2005. 2005 had Kenneth 2006 had Bud, Daniel, Ioke, John. Kristy, Lane, Sergio 2007 had Flossie 2008 had Boris, Hernan, Norbert. 2009 had Andres, Carlos, Felicia, Guillermo, Jimena, Rick, Neki. 2010 had Agatha, and Celia. Others disagree, saying that 87% of the storms since 2005 are boring. It shows that some people hate it and some people like it.
The EPAC has recently been reffered to as the "cookie curter basin". However, IMO they were several interesting storms since 2005. 2005 had Kenneth 2006 had Bud, Daniel, Ioke, John. Kristy, Lane, Sergio 2007 had Flossie 2008 had Boris, Hernan, Norbert. 2009 had Andres, Carlos, Felicia, Guillermo, Jimena, Rick, Neki. 2010 had Agatha, and Celia. Others disagree, saying that 87% of the storms since 2005 are boring. It shows that some people hate it and some people like it.
Friday, August 13, 2010
91E back over water, 92E and 93E could form in a few days
91E has moved back over water, but conditions are expected to become less favorable for further development. The rains should diminish over Mexico during the next few days. They are two other areas to watch. One is near Central America, However, significant development is not expected, but we could see this become 92/93E. Rain chances form in Coast Rica should decrease over the next few days. Waves action should decrease gradually. Another area is located far out so see. Surface pressure are low, but strong wind shear will likely prevent significant development.
91E moves inland unexepcty but heavy rains are probable, guess whos back
91E has moved inland somehow highly unexpectedly. however, Heavy rains up to 15 inches in the high terrain can cause deadly flooding and mudslides with severe damage. Sorry, ti the wrong time for you vacation. Up to $30 million dollars in damage is possible. There rain could persist for a while at least thorough Sunday night.
The motion of 91E was highly unexpected. It was expected to move NW and parallel the coast, so we thought high waves would be the threat. However, it unexpectedly moved NE and moved inland. This shows how little we know about tropical cyclones. It went off or on the extreme edge of the forecast cone. Too bad the NHC did not declare it a TD.
Guess whos back? 92C for the fifth time. However, additional development is not anticipated.
The motion of 91E was highly unexpected. It was expected to move NW and parallel the coast, so we thought high waves would be the threat. However, it unexpectedly moved NE and moved inland. This shows how little we know about tropical cyclones. It went off or on the extreme edge of the forecast cone. Too bad the NHC did not declare it a TD.
Guess whos back? 92C for the fifth time. However, additional development is not anticipated.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
91E almost a TD, 92C is back
91E is getting better organized, and is almost a TD. Additional development is possible and a tropical depression will likely form within the next 24 to 36 hours. Also, 92c is back on the CPHC page, but additional development is not anticipated.
91E forms
Just when one area of interest dies, another one is born. 99E has formed! Some gradual development is possible over the next few days. Once again, waves are issue up the Mexican Rivera, but due to westerly path of the system waves will not be as dangerous than 90E or Estelle.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Estlle has died, 90E going poof
Tropical Depression Estele has dissipated. In addition, 90E has became disorganized. No Tropical cyclones are expected during the two days.
Monday, August 9, 2010
Estelle almost dead, 90E has formed
Good news for beachgores, Estelle is almost dead. It southerly course will take it the remains of Estelle away from California. Good news there. Estelle's winds are 35 mph. Dissipation is expected overnight.
However, 90E has formed near Socorro Island, which got some rain for Estelle a few days back, is some sing sing or organization. However, no significant development is expected do to some wind shear. The main impact on Socorro are heavy rain. Up to an inch of rain is possible and about a 10 inch water rise is expected. On Mexico, wave up to 10 are very likely once again. These can produce deadly rip currents, the worst part of a La Nina for Pacific hurricane impact. Unlike Estelle the main threat for waves are near Mantalazan.
However, 90E has formed near Socorro Island, which got some rain for Estelle a few days back, is some sing sing or organization. However, no significant development is expected do to some wind shear. The main impact on Socorro are heavy rain. Up to an inch of rain is possible and about a 10 inch water rise is expected. On Mexico, wave up to 10 are very likely once again. These can produce deadly rip currents, the worst part of a La Nina for Pacific hurricane impact. Unlike Estelle the main threat for waves are near Mantalazan.
Estelle almsot a depression
Estelle is steadily weakening. Winds are down to 40 mph, and dissipation is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours. Minor affects in california in the form of rain and high waves are possible. However, if it moves move towards the south the predicted, it would not approach the break in the ridge in which would allow it to recurve.
There is also an are of disturbed weather south of Estelle. However, the associated convection is poorly organized and minimal.
There is also an are of disturbed weather south of Estelle. However, the associated convection is poorly organized and minimal.
Sunday, August 8, 2010
Estelle starting to weaken
Estelle is starting to weaken. Winds are down to 60 and will likley be down to 50 at 3 PM. It is moving away form Mexico and is no threat to land for the next few days. disspation is expect by Tuesday. However, in abou a week , the showers left of Estelle could affect California. The rest of the Pacific is quiet, bot area have dissipated, but squally weather is expect for the next few days.
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Tropical Storm Estelle a liitle stronger
Estelle counties to intensify, the winds have increased to 65 mph. It appears more likely that Estelle will become a hurricane. However, this is not in the forecast yet. After the weekend, it will begin to weaken slowly with dissipation expected by Tuesday night. The system is moving away from the coast, but higher than normal swells are expected. This can produce dangerous rip currents.
In addition, there are two area of disturbed weathers. However, significant development is not expected form both areas. One disturbance is located near Guatemala, with heavy rainfall possible along the coast. Another one is out to sea and will not impact land.
In addition, there are two area of disturbed weathers. However, significant development is not expected form both areas. One disturbance is located near Guatemala, with heavy rainfall possible along the coast. Another one is out to sea and will not impact land.
Tropical Storm Estelle has formed
Tropical Storm Estelle has formed off the coast of Baja winds are at 60 mph. this system is gradually becoming better organized. Some intensification is anticipated, and Estelle could become a strong tropical storms, with a small chance of becoming a hurricane. More importantly high waves up to 10 feet are expected over the next few days. Beachgoeres say out of the waters, and surfers should no go in. Meanwhile, there are two other ares of disturbed weather worth watching. The next name on the list is Frank.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Hurricane Celia and Tropical Dperession Blas
We now have Huricane Celia. Winds are at 65 knts. The NHC see says that it reach Major Hurricane Status in 48 hours. Blas has been dowgraded into 30 knt Tropcial depression. It is getting choked by dry air.
2010 season sart
Think got way soo active that I coudl not update on my blog. My favorite was Rick in October. To catch up check Wikpeida. Type in the ''2009 Pacific hurricane season" and "2010 Pacific hurricane season".
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