Saturday, June 4, 2011

91E remains at 30%, new AOI forms

Convection with 91E is waxing and wanning like a moon. Some gradual development is possible of the next day or so as it remains nearly stationary. Wind shear is moderate, SSTs are warm, and dry air is moderate. Regardless on whether it becomes a tropical cyclone or not, up to 3 inches of rainfalls and 10-15 foot waves are possible from Acapulco to Manazillo. Winds of 91E are 30 mph. The most recent Tropical Update on TWC pretended like 91E never existed. However, BI does recognize the existence of 91E.  The HCW put's it   "Showers in association with an area of disturbed weather just south of the Mexican Rivera has increased. Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for further development . There is a low chance, 25 percent of TC formation during the next day or so. " The NHC TWO put's it at "
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. 
"

Another AOI has formed far from the Mexican coast. There has been no mention on TWO and any additional development will be gradual to occur as it drifts westbound.

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