Final Day of Hurricne Week, Baja time

(Click on images in this article to expand)

The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season begins May 15th, but residents of Baja will scoff about any threat so early in the season. I've heard tribal knowledge like, "Hurricanes never come up the Sea of Cortez before September 1st." Well, right off the bat, my first hurricane, Ignacio, proved that one wrong in 2003.
The earliest Tropical Cyclone (one of Tropical Storm intensity or greater) to make landfall in Baja was TS Calvine on July 8th, 1993. The earliest hurricane to make landfall in Baja was Category 1 Hurricane Doreen in 1977. The most powerful storm to hit Baja was Kiko in 1989, the only Category 3 storm to ever make landfall in Baja. The dealiest storm was Hurricane Lisa in 1976. Lisa was a Category 4 Hurricane that passed up the Sea of Cortez and indirectly resulted in the deaths of thousands in La Paz.
So, we did research and here's the scientific straight scoop. We went to the NHC's Historical Hurricane Plotter which has data on tropical weather compiled from 1948 to 2008. We looked at plots of tropical storms though Category 5 hurricanes that passed within 150 miles of Baja. To confirm our data, it was checked against the Unisys data complied independently.
There is a map for each month of the season, click on the map for an enlarged view of storms tracked during that month. Each table shows the year of the storm, the first date of it's highest wind speed and the highest Saffir-Simpson Scale Category rating the storm achieved. This is not necessarily the storm's rating when it made landfall in Baja California Sur. The storms are sorted by the day they achieved maximum strength, showing what part of the month is most prone to storms.

May Hurricanes

Let's Start with May, that's an easy one. Since 1951 not a single tropical storm or hurricane has passed within 250 miles of Baja.
In June the Eastern Pacific is starting to really warm up and the storm activity increases. By mid June hurricanes become a possibility in Baja, although still pretty remote. The last time a June hurricane hit Baja was in 1958. The early season storm packed winds of 85 mph as it passed within 25 miles of Cabo San Lucas, which wasn't much more than a few fishing huts at the time.

June Storms

YEAR	DAY	STORM NAME	WIND SPEED (KTS)	CAT
1958	15	Not Named	25	TD
1959	12	Not Named	45	TS
1960	25	BONNY	45	TS
1960	25	BONNY	45	TS
1974	21	CONNIE	25	TD
1990	23	DOUGLAS	30	TD

In July the water in the Sea of Cortez is warmer. But hurricanes in our hemisphere want to go to the west because of their rotation. The jet stream usually doesn't drop southward across Baja until late August. Historically speaking, July is a safe month too, as the storms move harmlessly out into the Pacific and dissipate. There has been one Category 2 hurricane brush past Magdalena Bay and make landfall north of San Ignacio back in July of 1954. Tropical storm Calvin hit East Cape in 1993 and another tropical storm Calvin hit Todos Santos in 1981. (yes, the same day twelve years apart!) Ok, we can make it though July without a hurricane.

July Storms

YEAR	DAY	STORM NAME	WIND SPEED (KTS)	CAT
1950	6	Not Named	75	H1
1952	19	Not Named	45	TS
1954	16	Not Named	75	H1
1954	16	Not Named	75	H1
1958	29	Not Named	45	TS
1964	7	NATALIE	45	TS
1970	18	HELGA	50	TS
1974	18	FRANCESCA	60	TS
1974	18	GRETCHEN	50	TS
1981	8	CALVIN	40	TS
1984	7	FAUSTO	90	H2
1984	11	GENEVIEVE	65	H1
1985	4	FEFA	60	TS
1989	27	FLOSSIE	25	TD
1993	8	CALVIN	50	TS
1998	18	CELIA	45	TS
2005	20	EUGENE	50	TS
2006	25	EMILIA	50	TS
2008	3	DOUGLAS	30	TD

Well, dream on if you think the luck will hold though August. I heard it said just days before Hurricane Ignacio in 2003  "...it was no concern, storms never come up the Sea until after September 1st." That is nothing but an old wives tale. By the end of August we can start to get into some serious hurricane weather.
Anyone who has spent the summer in Baja knows, about August 15th the days become still and humid, and this is in addition to near 100 degree heat every day. Thunderstorms appear regularly over the mountains between Cabo San Lucas and La Paz. The earliest hurricane to make landfall in Baja Sur was August 15th and the latest was October 17th, thus defining Baja's hurricane season. However, a Category 1storm passed just 30 miles south of Cabo in 1958, certainly close enough to deliver some punch to the peninsula.
The warm water of the Sea can be in the upper 80°'s by late August and this becomes a very strong hurricane magnet. Storms that generate NW of Acapulco can sometimes get stuck  'inside' and travel up the Sea. Hurricane Ignacio did exactly that on August 26, 2003.
The good news is August tropical cyclones in Baja are still rare. The upper atmosphere steering winds are still moving eastward far north of the hurricane track and a majority of the storms move off into the colder waters of the Pacific and spin apart.

August Storms

However, August can spawn monster storms too, like Kiko in 1989. Kiko made it to Category 3 has it churned up the Sea of Cortez and  made landfall on the East Cape with winds in excess of 120 MPH. Kiko was the ONLY category 3 storm to ever make landfall in Baja.



to ever make landfall in Baja.

YEAR	DAY	STORM NAME	WIND SPEED (KTS)	CAT
1960	19	DIANA	75	H1
1960	19	DIANA	75	H1
1965	31	EMILY	45	TS
1967	31	KATRINA	75	H1
1968	18	HYACINTH	45	TS
1969	23	EMILY	50	TS
1971	11	KATRINA	50	TS
1977	15	DOREEN	65	H1
1981	29	IRWIN	35	TS
1981	30	IRWIN	30	TD
1988	18	JOHN	30	TD
1989	26	KIKO	45	H3
1993	24	HILARY	40	TS
1995	11	FLOSSIE	70	H1
2000	15	ILEANA	60	TS
2003	23	IGNACIO	55	TS
2003	24	IGNACIO	60	TS
2008	24	JULIO	40	TS

September is the month to be a storm watcher in Baja. More than 150 tropical storms have passed within 250 miles of Cabo San Lucas since 1950. Many of them were just tropical storms, but September is the peak of the storm season.
By mid September the jet stream has dropped well down into Baja Sur before it makes a dramatic turn to the east. While I was plotting hurricane Marty the computer models forecast a continued NW progress harmlessly into the Pacific. Friday afternoon I noticed a drop to the south in the jet stream on the US Navy plots. These high speed upper air currents came almost as far as Magdalena Bay, then turn 90° east. That Friday night the BajaInsider predicted that Marty would not continue into the Pacific, but would turn and cross the peninsula south of Magdalena Bay. Marty hit the eastward winds south of the jet stream and banked against it's spin, progressively to the east. Marty arrived in La Paz on Monday morning. (thanks to my amateur weather tutor, Jim from Sea Witch!)
The jet stream can make a hurricane turn and it can tear it apart. The central column of convection is the engine that drives a hurricane. Hard turns or strong high altitude winds can disrupt the column and spin the storm apart. As the northern hemisphere cools these upper atmosphere steering winds drop further down Baja before turning east. The combination of these winds and energy still built up in the tropical regions are what make the period from September 15th to October 15th the peak of our storm season.

September Storms

YEAR	DAY	STORM NAME	WIND SPEED (KTS)	CAT
1949	10	Not Named	75	H1
1953	16	Not Named	75	H1
1957	21	Not Named	45	TS
1958	11	Not Named	45	TS
1958	11	Not Named	45	TS
1959	9	Not Named	75	H1
1962	21	CLAUDIA	45	TS
1964	7	TILLIE	45	TS
1965	25	HAZEL	45	TS
1966	28	KIRSTEN	45	TS
1969	5	FLORENCE	45	TS
1969	10	GLENDA	55	TS
1971	7	NANETTE	70	H1
1973	25	IRAH	90	H2
1976	30	LIZA	120	H4
1978	25	PAUL	40	TS
1986	23	NEWTON	70	H1
1988	7	DEBBY	25	TD
1993	12	LIDIA	85	H2
1995	4	HENRIETTE	80	H1
1995	14	ISMAEL	70	H1
1995	15	ISMAEL	70	H1
1996	13	FAUSTO	85	H2
1998	2	ISIS	60	TS
1998	2	ISIS	65	H1
1999	7	GREG	65	H1
2000	17	MIRIAM	30	TD
2001	27	JULIETTE	80	H1
2003	22	MARTY	75	H1
2006	1	JOHN	100	H3
2007	4	HENRIETTE	75	H1
2007	24	IVO	25	L
2008	11	LOWELL	30	TD

Once we get to October you would think that the season is winding down. Well, not exactly. The threat of tropical weather extends through the entire month of October. It is said the British Privateer Cromwell and Spanish explorer Cabrillo were taken by surprise in a late season storms.

By October the Sea of Cortez has reached it's high temperature, acting as a magnet to the warm water hungry storms. In addition the high altitude steering winds now have enough strength to overpower the storms desire to head west. One look at the storm plot for October and you can see what I mean.  There are fewer storms than in September, but the path moves them right over Baja.

October Storms

YEAR	DAY	STORM NAME	WIND SPEED (KTS)	CAT
1955	2	NOTNAMED	45	TS
1958	3	NOTNAMED	75	H1
1958	4	NOTNAMED	75	H1
1962	4	DOREEN	75	H1
1962	4	DOREEN	75	H1
1963	18	MONA	75	H1
1967	13	OLIVIA	75	H1
1968	2	PAULINE	75	H1
1976	1	LIZA	120	H4
1976	28	NAOMI	40	TS
1978	5	ROSA	60	TS
1981	7	LIDIA	45	TS
1984	3	POLO	40	TS
1985	8	WALDO	75	H1
1986	1	PAINE	80	H1
1986	2	PAINE	80	H1
1987	1	PILAR	30	TD
1990	2	RACHEL	55	TS
1998	19	MADELINE	35	TS
2005	5	OTIS	20	L
2006	25	PAUL	40	TS
2008	11	NORBERT	95	H2

The good news is that by November 1st, like a line in the sand, the threat is over. Since 1950 only three tropical storms have even made it to within 250 miles of Cabo, none of them making land or achieving hurricane strength.

November Storms

YEAR	DAY	STORM NAME	WIND SPEED (KTS)	CAT
1951	29	NOTNAMED	45	TS
1970	4	SELMA	50	TS
1991	12	NORA	30	TD