Saturday, April 2, 2011

2011 Predictions

Its April, in a season under the name Spring. A month past a hurricane conference, which confirmed that Agatha nor Frank got retired. We are still in off-season, but we are getting there, getting close to hurricane week May 15-21.

It is time for our predictions. The La Nina that lead to the least active since since 1977 is gone at last. a neutral should appear by May, and an El Nino by October. Typically, under neutral conditions, we get 14-16 named storms. Waters are much warmer than last year. However, the pressure forecast look fairly balancedm and since hurricanes help balance out the pressures, they would be less hurricanes and the pressure over the tropcial Pacific. There is more ITCZ convection than normal this year, so that is a sign towards more activity. Our pre-season forecast goes for 15-4-3.  

The highest risk is the Mexican coast. I predict a lot of storms will form near the coast. In June and July, it will be boring. Form-intensify-die. In August, you will start to see a few major hurricanes, as upper level winds weaken over the tropical pacific. By mdi-August storms will start to threaten Mexican Riviera which extends from Acapulco to La Paz, but landfalls will be rare.  By late August, troughs will re-curve storms toward Mexico, and a landfalling Baja hurricane is likely during late August/early September. September will be quiet with only two storms expected, despite one forecasted to make landfall.

October becomes a dangerous moth. Three quick storms will from around Ocotber 7-15, including one major hurricane than re-curves and strikes Mexico. In all, the ACE will be near-normal, in the 83-92 range.

BTW, a Baja California weather center played an April Fools joke. They wrote  "A freak tropical storm is working its way up the Pacific side of the Baja peninsula and is forecast to make landfall somewhere along the Southern California coast."- sourced from

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