Tuesday, July 7, 2009

blanca is now weakening

LOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY AND THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DETERIORATED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB. BASED UPON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT.

BLANCA IS NEARING THE 24C SST ISOTHERM AS IT MOVES ACROSS A
STRONG GRADIENT OF SST. MOREOVER...THE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY
BEGUN TO INGEST INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND
ENCOUNTER A MODEST AMOUNT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. THESE FACTORS FAVOR A
CONTINUED STEADY DECLINE IN INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN CLOSE ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE. BLANCA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36
HOURS...BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THIS EVENT COULD OCCUR SOONER.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/10...A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED MOTION. THE TRACK
REASONING WITH REGARD TO BLANCA HAS NOT CHANGED. THE CYCLONE
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAKENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.

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