Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Too busy so here is the summary for past three storms
Tropical Depression Nine-E developed out of a small area of low pressure west-southwest of Baja California on August 9. The NHC initially forecast Nine-E to strengthen to a tropical storm by August 10, but moderate shear inhibited development, and the depression was no longer forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm, as the shear inhibited deep convection within the depression's circulation. Shear continually inhibited development until the end, when Nine-E degenerated to a remnant low on August 12. The next day, the NHC noted the possibility for regeneration of the system, although, by late on the 14th, the disturbance had weakened, and was becoming embedded in the ITCZ, as a result, the probability for regeneration was low. Nine-E's remnants dissipated on August 15, while located just within the central Pacific.
Tropical Depression One-C developed out of an area of low pressure southwest of Kauai on August 11. Since it formed when Hurricane Felicia was still active, its formation made August 11, 2009 the first time since October 31, 2002 that two tropical cyclones were active in the central north Pacific at the same time. It was numbered One-C as it was the first system to develop in the Central Pacific region, even though Lana was named there.[4] Late that day, the system strengthened to a tropical storm and was named Maka, the second named storm to form in the Central Pacific in 2009. The next afternoon, the final advisory on Maka was issued as it weakened, degenerating into a remnant low, likely caused by unexpected shear. The remnants of Tropical Storm Maka crossed the international dateline and moved into the Western Pacific and regenerated into a tropical depression.
Hurricane Guillermo formed on August 12 from a broad area of low pressure nearly 700 miles SW of Baja California. The system developed a good series of banding features and convection, and as a result, in the afternoon later that day, it strengthened into a tropical storm, the seventh in the eastern Pacific that year. On August 14, it strengthened to become the fourth hurricane of the season, concurrent to the development of a good, banding type eye. That afternoon, Guillermo strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane with maximum winds increasing to 100 mph (155 km/h). Early on August 15, Guillermo intensified to become the second major hurricane of the season, as it was upgraded by the NHC to a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum winds increasing to 115 mph (185 km/h). On August 16 it crossed into the Central Pacific basin as a Category 1 hurricane, and then quickly weakened to a tropical storm thereafter.
Sunday, August 9, 2009
TD is forming from 90E
LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Felica, 90E, 92C
For the East Pacific 160W to North America.
The CPHC is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Felicia located 595 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.
A broad low located some 800 miles SW from Cobo San Lucas (90E) has became better organized and a TD could form over the nest 48 hours.
A tropical wave located near Johnston Atoll has changed little in organization. Development of this system is not anticipated.
Another disorganized low is located South of Acapulco.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
What a difference 2 days can make
Monday, August 3, 2009
7_E is here, Lana done
Location: 13.0°N 112.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Advisories for Lana have been dropped
99E
TD could be froming?
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Update
An area to watch
Montoring two areas
A second area of disturbed weather is over the Mexican Mainland and the Gulf of California. It looks impressive this morning. However land interaction will likely inhibit development. Regardless of development heavy rainfall could lead to flash floods and lightning over Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, California, and Nevada this weekend.
Note: This image is not mine
Confusion with Lana
Friday, July 31, 2009
Tropical Storm Lana
Monday, July 20, 2009
2009 PHS
Tropical Depression One-E
An area of disturbed weather persisted off the southwest Mexican coast on June 15.[5] It moved slowly west-northwestward, developing an area of low pressure as it became better organized.[6] The system continued to organize, and on June 17 the National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted the likelihood for tropical cyclogenesis, although at the time the circulation was not well-defined.[7] Subsequently it organized further,[8] and early on June 18, the NHC initiated advisories on the first tropical depression of the 2009 season about 370 miles (595 km) south-southwest of Mazatlán, Mexico.[9] Deep convection persisted near the southern portion of the depression; however, the northern portion of the depression was partially devoid of convective activity. A mid to upper-level trough situated over the Baja California Peninsula led to a northward movement of the depression.[8] The system remained disorganized most of its lifetime due to shear. One-E dissipated as it made landfall early on June 20.[10]
On June 19, 2.44 in (62 mm) of rain fell in Mazatlán, near where the remnants of the depression moved ashore.[11] High winds in Mazatlán knocked down several trees, cutting power to numerous residents. Heavy rains also triggered street flooding throughout the city.[12] Landslides along major roadways caused several accidents, one involving a bus that was damaged by rocks.[13]
Andres originated from a broad area of disturbed weather associated with remnant of tropical depression One-E persisted off the southern coast of Mexico after Tropical Depression One-E formed, which generated shower and thunderstorm activity. At this time, the National Hurricane Center remarked upon the possibility for tropical cyclone formation.[14] On June 20, associated convective activity began to organize.[15] The system continued to develop, though by early on June 21, the low-level center had not yet become well-defined.[16] Later that day, the NHC declared that Tropical Depression Two-E had developed near the southern coast of Mexico.[17] Early the next day, the depression strengthened to the first tropical storm of the 2009 season and was named Andres. Andres strengthened in a steady stage eventually becoming a hurricane around 2 p.m. PDT on June 23, although it was possible that Andres became a hurricane earlier that day. [18] It also brought gale force winds to the Mexican coast. The system then weakened back to a tropical storm shortly after. High shear and dry air weakened Andres rapidly to a depression on the 24th, with the NHC issuing their last advisory that day.
Rough seas produced by the storm led to the drowning of a fisherman off the coast of Mexico. Flooding caused by Andres resulted in the evacuation of 200 people and 14 shelters were opened to accommodate the evacuees.[19]
Tropical Storm Blanca
On July 6, an area of disturbed weather situated approximately 420 mi (675 km) south-southwest of Baja California, Mexico was designated as Tropical Storm Blanca by the NHC, skipping tropical depression status.[1] The newly upgraded storm featured deep convection and a possible eye-feature around the center of circulation. Favorable conditions allowed the storm to intensify later that day.[2] Large convective banding features developed around the central dense overcast during the morning of July 6, as winds around the center of the storm increased to 45 mph (75 km/h). All forecast models agreed on further intensification of the storm; however, some models indicated rapid intensification before the storm moved into a less favorable environment.[3] However, this did not happen, and the system moved into colder waters, weakening to a tropical depression on the 8th, before finally becoming a remnant low on the 9th. The remnants began moving northwestward, and they dissipated early on July 10, a thousand miles or more west-northwest of Baja California. The remnants of the storm brought unseasonable rainfall, although negligible, to parts of southern and central California on July 11.[4] The moisture reached the region after being pulled northward by an upper-level low off the coast of Oregon.[5] The storm produced usually heavy rainfall, exceeding 2 in/h (50 mm/h) at times.[6]
On July 9, showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of disturbed weather located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California became more concentrated around a developing low level centre. In the early hours of July 10th, the system was designated as Tropical Depression Four-E, and the NHC commenced advisories. Around 2:00 p.m. PDT, the system strengthened into Tropical Storm Carlos. On July 11, Tropical Storm Carlos strengthened into a minimal Category 1 hurricane. It also developed a small eye feature, based on satellite presentation. However, by morning of July 12, the National Hurricane Center noted that the small eye-like feature had disappeared. Overnight on July 11 through the morning of July 12, the structure of Carlos became disorganized for unknown reasons. Deep convection contracted to a small region around the center of circulation and the overall size of the storm diminished. In the early afternoon hours, the continued degeneration of the system led to its downgrade to tropical storm status. Throughout the rest of the 12th and until mid-day on the 13th, Carlos continued to weaken, but the weakening trend slightly abated, enough for Carlos to reintensify slightly, from 50 mph to 65 mph. A statement from the NHC that day predicted Carlos to either stay at 65 mph for the next three days or so, or to constantly fluctuate in intensity. However, by July 14, a new eye wall developed and Carlos was given hurricane status again. It rapidly intensified to a peak of 90 knots, or 105 mph (at 0900 UTC on July 15), and the NHC noted the distinct "pinhole eye feature" in their TWD. By the end of July 14th, the eye had started to get less defined, and on the 15th, the system began a weakening trend. On July 16, Carlos degenerated into a remnant low, and the final advisory was issued. [1]
Tropical Storm Dolores
On July 14 a sprawling area of disturbed weather to the south of Baja California showed signs of tropical organization, and advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E were initiated that day. The depression soon strengthened into a tropical storm, being named Dolores during the morning of July 15, and later that day began developing good banding features as well as good convection. Dolores strengthened to peak winds of 50 mph early on July 16. But, later that day, the deep convection associated with Dolores began to weaken, and the storm began a slow, but sure weakening trend. Dolores weakened to a tropical depression late on the 16th, and by early the next day, all deep convection had been lost, and the NHC issued their last advisory on the weakened Tropical Depression Dolores, as it quickly dissipated over cooler waters and under adverse shear.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Update
Sunday, July 12, 2009
NHC downgrades Carlos to a TS
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Hurricane Kathleen (1976)
Hurricane Kathleen was a tropical cyclone of the 1976 Pacific hurricane season. Though rather weak, only a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, it was very destructive. Kathleen caused widespread flooding and damage in northern Mexico and parts of the southwestern United States causing $610 million in damage. It also took an unusual path.
Meteorological history
A tropical depression formed on September 7. Twelve hours later it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Kathleen. After spending the past day moving slowly, it started accelerating northwards. On September 9, it reached hurricane status and brushed a promontory on the Pacific coast of the Baja California. Kathleen was a hurricane for only six hours, and was a tropical storm, with 50 mph winds, when it made landfall in California on September 10. With its circulation intact and still a tropical storm, it moved inland.
Upon making landfall, Kathleen immediately was downgraded to a tropical depression Tropical Depression Kathleen dissipated on September 11 while over central Nevada as it continued accelerating. Residual moisture from the hurricane hung around over the southwestern United States.[1]
Impact
In Arizona on September 10 and September 11, gales caused considerable damage in Yuma. For a time, the sustained winds exceeded 50 mph, with gusts up to 76 mph. Rains caused severe flash-flooding in Mohave County. One man was killed when the wind blew a palm tree onto his mobile home.[1]Residual moisture brings more severe thunderstorms to the state on September 24 and 25. The Tucson area is particularly hard hit with flash flooding and hail as large as golf balls. Hail covers the ground to a depth of 5 inches on Mount Lemmon It killed a man when a gust of wind blew a palm tree down onto his mobile home. Severe flooding and hailstorms also resulted.[2]While most of the rainfall from the storm fell in California,[3] 2.87 in (73 mm) fell at the Davis Dam on the Colorado River.[4]
California received record rainfall, with 14.76 inches falling on the southern slopes of Mt. San Gorgonio, and 10.13 inches accumulated on Mount Laguna.[5] Flooding caused catastrophic destruction to Ocotillo. Because Ocotillo is situated atop an alluvial fan, the path of the raging floodwaters was wide and changing, with over half of the town being totally destroyed. The waters piled a layer of sand that was over 3 meters high in some places.[2] Three to six people drowned in the mud and waters in that city.[3] Other parts of Imperial County and Riverside County experienced severe flash flooding.[4]
Six to 12 inches of rainfall was observed in the central and southern mountains of southern California on September 10 and September 11.
Flooding disrupted transportation routes in the county. Part of Interstate 8 along the San Diego and Imperial County border was washed out. [5] Three trestles belonging to the San Diego and Arizona Eastern Railway were destroyed, and five others were damaged. At more than 50 other locations, tracks were buried by mudslides or had the ground under them washed away. After assessing the damage from Kathleen, the Southern Pacific Transportation Company decided in 1977 to abandon most of the SD&AE railway, but in 1978 the Interstate Commerce Commission disallowed this plan and the railway was restored.[6]
Homeowners in Palm Desert received considerable damage from the storm. Many flood control structures throughout the area failed to work.[7] The control structures in the area were rebuilt, and they withstood the next series of flash floods caused by Hurricane Doreen's remnants in 1977.[8]
Kathleen highest rainfall was 14.76 inches in Mt. San Gorgonio.[6] Agriculture was disrupted throughout the area. The area covered by the Salton Sea increased.
In Wyoming, the cyclone is credited with the first known sighting of a White Ibis in the state's history.[7] In Montana, Kathleen dropped locally heavy rainfall approaching 2 inches (51 mm) in localized spots.[8] In Oregon, heavy rain was reported, enough to cause flooding and became the wettest in State's history.
Aftermath
Note:
This is copied from Hurricane Kathleen (1976)
Friday, July 10, 2009
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Not so fast
A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRED VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM
FOR NOW. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB. IT WAS A BIT SURPRISING TO SEE THE
RECENT REJUVENATION OF CONVECTION GIVEN THAT THE SSTS ARE LIKELY
LOWER THAN 24 DEG C. HOWEVER SINCE BLANCA WILL BE MOVING OVER EVEN
COOLER WATERS...IT SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...ICON.
MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIXES GIVE A CURRENT MOTION OF
ABOUT 300/10...SO THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED HAS NOT
YET TAKEN PLACE. NONETHELESS...THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BLANCA SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECELERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A MORE WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES A WEAK LOW. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS MORE OR LESS THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
MOTION.
blanca is now weakening
LOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY AND THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DETERIORATED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB. BASED UPON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT.
BLANCA IS NEARING THE 24C SST ISOTHERM AS IT MOVES ACROSS A
STRONG GRADIENT OF SST. MOREOVER...THE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY
BEGUN TO INGEST INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND
ENCOUNTER A MODEST AMOUNT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. THESE FACTORS FAVOR A
CONTINUED STEADY DECLINE IN INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN CLOSE ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE. BLANCA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36
HOURS...BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THIS EVENT COULD OCCUR SOONER.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/10...A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED MOTION. THE TRACK
REASONING WITH REGARD TO BLANCA HAS NOT CHANGED. THE CYCLONE
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAKENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.
Monday, July 6, 2009
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Ignacio 1997 article
Tropical Storm Ignacio (1997)
Tropical Storm Ignacio formed first as a depression in an area of disturbed weather on August 17. 12 hours later, it organized into a tropical storm. Ignacio's location of tropical cyclogenesis was further north and west of where most East Pacific tropical cyclones form. Steering currents pulled Ignacio north, where it encountered wind shear and cooler waters. Ignacio lost tropical characteristics August 19. They were then absorbed by a cyclone associated with the remnants of Hurricane Guillermo.
Ignacio's remnants moved north, bringing gusty winds to California coastal waters before dissipating. They caused rainfall as far north as the U.S. state of Washington. Thunderstorms caused a few power outages in central California. Other than those events, there was no impact.
Meteorological history
Ignacio originated from a large low pressure area that was near the coast of Mexico on August 14. [1] The low began to organize on August 16 and on at 0000UT time the next day it was declared Tropical Depression Eleven-E. The depression showed strong bursts of deep convection, and became Tropical Storm Ignacio 18 hours after forming.[1] Initially, Ignacio became better organized.[1] However, it remained weak. Ignacio peaked with winds of only 40 mph and a peak pressure of 1005 mbar
Southerly wind shear increased, while Ignacio entered colder water. As a result, it weakened to tropical depression status that afternoon. [1] Ignacio transitioned into an extratropical depression 24 hours later. The remnants were absorbed by a much larger extratropical cyclone while just offshore California on August 20.[2] This was the same low that also absorbed the remnants of Hurricane Guillermo four days later.[1] [3] Ignacio's track is unusual since it came very close to hitting California.[2]
Preparations and Impact
No watches or warnings were needed for Ignacio. [1] However, it still impacted land.[1] Ignacio brought heavy rain to the entire West coast. [1] [2] The highest rainfall total was 2.72 inches (69 mm). [1] It produced record rainfall in the Pacific Northwest and eventually impacted British Columbia.[1] [4] [5] Winds were gusty. [2] The power when out in Central California, but no other damage was reported.[1] Severe flooding was recorded along US Highway 97 with a debris flow estimated at 0.5 mi and 7 ft deep.[6]
References
^ a b c d e f g h i j k Edward N. Rappaport. "Tropical Storm Ignacio Primary Report". NHC. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1997ignacio.html. Retrieved on 2009-06-28.
^ a b c d Jack Williams (2005-05-17). "California's Tropical Cyclones". USA Today. http://www.usatoday.com/weather/whhcalif.htm. Retrieved on 2005-10-24.
^ B. Max Mayfield (1997). "Hurricane Guillermo Prelimary Report". National Hurricane Center. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1997guillerm.html. Retrieved on 2007-03-06.
^ David M. Roth. "Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Maxima per State". Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/tcstatemaxima.gif. Retrieved on 2006-06-17.
^ David M. Roth. "Remains of Ignacio". HPC. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/ignacio1997.html. Retrieved on 2009-06-28.
^ Stuart Hinson (1997). "California Event Report: Flash Flood". National Climatic Data Center. http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~ShowEvent~283112. Retrieved on 2009-06-29.
Note
This page is from two wikipedia articles. 1997 Pacifc hurricane season and User:Yellow Evan/Sandbox
Friday, June 26, 2009
New disturbance
Andres went too fast
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Friday, June 19, 2009
TS Andres?
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE NONE OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRENGTHENING...THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM
WATER AND THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SMALL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
WILL BE NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS TODAY AND NEAR THE MAINLAND COAST OF
MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. MOISTURE FLOWING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEPRESSION COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL IN NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.