90E near the Mexican coast

90E is currently near the coast of Mexico. However, this system is disorganized and significant development is not expected. Heavy rain is possible (up to 4 inches) along the coast but expect light winds. Waves up to 15 ft are possible as well.

92C dead, Offical mid-eason forcast

Invest 92C dead at last. It may rest in peace. Now, here comes the official season forecast for the Pacific. Early this year in April i predicted 19 named storms(CPAC included) 11 hurricanes, and 8 major hurricanes. However, in June the prediction has been lowered to 15-7-3. Today, I have set the prediction to 12-6-4. However, it takes only one hurricane to make it a band season as Agatha did in May for Guatemala. I give a 28% chance of a landfalling hurricane in Baja (average is 30%) with a 40% (average) chance of a landfalling hurricane in Mainland Mexico (excluding the Atlantic).

90E and ex-Dainmu could threaten California , El Nino?

Invest 90E appears to be fading, but is expected to turn Northeast and possibly bring some showers, but no significant rainfall is expected. The leftovers of Dainmu could also bring some rain and intensify the monsoon, not to mention the MJO moving over the area into the Atlantic

I personally think there is still El Nino. While the SST's in the Pacific are below normal, the shear levels in the tropcial Atlantic suggest otherwise. The amounts of shear is typical of a moderate El Nino. Average them to out we are in a weak El Nino

90E near Soccoro Island

Invest 90E has changed little in modernization. The systme is currently near Socorro Island. Up to 3 inches of rain and 30 mph winds are possible. However, the main threat will be the waves. Up to 25 foot waves are possible. Stay out of the water PLEASE.

90E is back, could we have 92E soon, Cookie cutter basin?

Invest 90E has came back once again. Some development is possible, but is no threat to land. 92C has changed little in organization, and no additional development is expected. There is another area of interest south of the Mexican coast, but strong wind shear is expected to prevent further development.

The EPAC has recently been reffered to as the "cookie curter basin". However, IMO they were several interesting storms since 2005. 2005 had Kenneth 2006 had Bud, Daniel, Ioke, John. Kristy, Lane, Sergio 2007 had Flossie 2008 had Boris, Hernan, Norbert. 2009 had Andres, Carlos, Felicia, Guillermo, Jimena, Rick, Neki. 2010 had Agatha, and Celia. Others disagree, saying that 87% of the storms since 2005 are boring. It shows that some people hate it and some people like it.

91E back over water, 92E and 93E could form in a few days

91E has moved back over water, but conditions are expected to become less favorable for further development. The rains should diminish over Mexico during the next few days. They are two other areas to watch. One is near Central America, However, significant development is not expected, but we could see this become 92/93E. Rain chances form in Coast Rica should decrease over the next few days. Waves action should decrease gradually. Another area is located far out so see. Surface pressure are low, but strong wind shear will likely prevent significant development.

91E moves inland unexepcty but heavy rains are probable, guess whos back

91E has moved inland somehow highly unexpectedly. however, Heavy rains up to 15 inches in the high terrain can cause deadly flooding and mudslides with severe damage. Sorry, ti the wrong time for you vacation. Up to $30 million dollars in damage is possible. There rain could persist for a while at least thorough Sunday night.

The motion of 91E was highly unexpected. It was expected to move NW and parallel the coast, so we thought high waves would be the threat. However, it unexpectedly moved NE and moved inland. This shows how little we know about tropical cyclones. It went off or on the extreme edge of the forecast cone. Too bad the NHC did not declare it a TD.

Guess whos back? 92C for the fifth time. However, additional development is not anticipated.

91E almost a TD, 92C is back

91E is getting better organized, and is almost a TD. Additional development is possible and a tropical depression will likely form within the next 24 to 36 hours. Also, 92c is back on the CPHC page, but additional development is not anticipated.

91E forms

Just when one area of interest dies, another one is born. 99E has formed! Some gradual development is possible over the next few days. Once again, waves are issue up the Mexican Rivera, but due to westerly path of the system waves will not be as dangerous than 90E or Estelle.

Estlle has died, 90E going poof

Tropical Depression Estele has dissipated. In addition, 90E has became disorganized. No Tropical cyclones are expected during the two days.

Estelle almost dead, 90E has formed

Good news for beachgores, Estelle is almost dead. It southerly course will take it the remains of Estelle away from California. Good news there. Estelle's winds are 35 mph. Dissipation is expected overnight.

However, 90E has formed near Socorro Island, which got some rain for Estelle a few days back, is some sing sing or organization. However, no significant development is expected do to some wind shear. The main impact on Socorro are heavy rain. Up to an inch of rain is possible and about a 10 inch water rise is expected. On Mexico, wave up to 10 are very likely once again. These can produce deadly rip currents, the worst part of a La Nina for Pacific hurricane impact. Unlike Estelle the main threat for waves are near Mantalazan.

Estelle almsot a depression

Estelle is steadily weakening. Winds are down to 40 mph, and dissipation is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours. Minor affects in california in the form of rain and high waves are possible. However, if it moves move towards the south the predicted, it would not approach the break in the ridge in which would allow it to recurve.

There is also an are of disturbed weather south of Estelle. However, the associated convection is poorly organized and minimal.

Estelle starting to weaken

Estelle is starting to weaken. Winds are down to 60 and will likley be down to 50 at 3 PM. It is moving away form Mexico and is no threat to land for the next few days. disspation is expect by Tuesday. However, in abou a week , the showers left of Estelle could affect California. The rest of the Pacific is quiet, bot area have dissipated, but squally weather is expect for the next few days.

Tropical Storm Estelle a liitle stronger

Estelle counties to intensify, the winds have increased to 65 mph. It appears more likely that Estelle will become a hurricane. However, this is not in the forecast yet. After the weekend, it will begin to weaken slowly with dissipation expected by Tuesday night. The system is moving away from the coast, but higher than normal swells are expected. This can produce dangerous rip currents.

In addition, there are two area of disturbed weathers. However, significant development is not expected form both areas. One disturbance is located near Guatemala, with heavy rainfall possible along the coast. Another one is out to sea and will not impact land.

Tropical Storm Estelle has formed

Tropical Storm Estelle has formed off the coast of Baja winds are at 60 mph. this system is gradually becoming better organized. Some intensification is anticipated, and Estelle could become a strong tropical storms, with a small chance of becoming a hurricane. More importantly high waves up to 10 feet are expected over the next few days. Beachgoeres say out of the waters, and surfers should no go in. Meanwhile, there are two other ares of disturbed weather worth watching. The next name on the list is Frank.

Hurricane Celia and Tropical Dperession Blas

We now have Huricane Celia. Winds are at 65 knts. The NHC see says that it reach Major Hurricane Status in 48 hours. Blas has been dowgraded into 30 knt Tropcial depression. It is getting choked by dry air.

2010 season sart

Think got way soo active that I coudl not update on my blog. My favorite was Rick in October. To catch up check Wikpeida. Type in the ''2009 Pacific hurricane season" and "2010 Pacific hurricane season".

Too busy so here is the summary for past three storms

Hurricane Felicia developed out of a broad area of low pressure, several that formed hundred miles southwest of Baja California Sur on August 3, developing into Tropical Depression Eight-E the next day, shortly after Tropical Depression Seven-E formed directly to the east. It strengthened into a tropical storm and was named Felicia early on August 4. It rapidly strengthened that morning as an eyewall quickly developed, the rapid intensification being attributed to warm water along the forecast track, which allowed for more rapid intensification. Felicia continued to intensify and became a hurricane that afternoon. Rapid intensification continued into that evening, and the NHC upgraded Felicia to a Category 2 hurricane. It continued to rapidly strengthen, becoming the first major hurricane of the season on the morning of August 5, when the NHC upgraded it to a Category 3 hurricane. Later that day, Felicia rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane, with maximum winds increasing to 145 mph (230 km/h), making it the strongest storm in the Eastern Pacific since Daniel in 2006. The NHC predicted that Felicia would rapidly weaken during the next couple of days starting on August 6, but it was also noted by the NHC that Felicia was displaying annular hurricane characteristics, which would allow for it to maintain intensity for longer than expected over marginal SSTS. On August 8 it crossed into the Central Pacific basin, gradually weakening to a tropical storm and then a tropical depression as it approached the Hawaiian Islands. Tropical storm and flash flood watches were issued on August 7 for the Big Island of Hawaii and Maui County, and were extended to include Oahu on August 9. The watches for the Big Island were later canceled as the track for Felicia appeared to turn toward the north. All watches were canceled at 11 a.m. HST August 11 as Felicia dissipated to a remnant low.

Tropical Depression Nine-E developed out of a small area of low pressure west-southwest of Baja California on August 9. The NHC initially forecast Nine-E to strengthen to a tropical storm by August 10, but moderate shear inhibited development, and the depression was no longer forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm, as the shear inhibited deep convection within the depression's circulation. Shear continually inhibited development until the end, when Nine-E degenerated to a remnant low on August 12. The next day, the NHC noted the possibility for regeneration of the system, although, by late on the 14th, the disturbance had weakened, and was becoming embedded in the ITCZ, as a result, the probability for regeneration was low. Nine-E's remnants dissipated on August 15, while located just within the central Pacific.

Tropical Depression One-C developed out of an area of low pressure southwest of Kauai on August 11. Since it formed when Hurricane Felicia was still active, its formation made August 11, 2009 the first time since October 31, 2002 that two tropical cyclones were active in the central north Pacific at the same time. It was numbered One-C as it was the first system to develop in the Central Pacific region, even though Lana was named there.^[4] Late that day, the system strengthened to a tropical storm and was named Maka, the second named storm to form in the Central Pacific in 2009. The next afternoon, the final advisory on Maka was issued as it weakened, degenerating into a remnant low, likely caused by unexpected shear. The remnants of Tropical Storm Maka crossed the international dateline and moved into the Western Pacific and regenerated into a tropical depression.

Hurricane Guillermo formed on August 12 from a broad area of low pressure nearly 700 miles SW of Baja California. The system developed a good series of banding features and convection, and as a result, in the afternoon later that day, it strengthened into a tropical storm, the seventh in the eastern Pacific that year. On August 14, it strengthened to become the fourth hurricane of the season, concurrent to the development of a good, banding type eye. That afternoon, Guillermo strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane with maximum winds increasing to 100 mph (155 km/h). Early on August 15, Guillermo intensified to become the second major hurricane of the season, as it was upgraded by the NHC to a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum winds increasing to 115 mph (185 km/h). On August 16 it crossed into the Central Pacific basin as a Category 1 hurricane, and then quickly weakened to a tropical storm thereafter.

TD is forming from 90E

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Felica, 90E, 92C

Over the past 24 hours Felicia has weakened slowly and as of 8 AM winds are sustained at 70 mph and a pressure of 994 mb. Hawaii is now under a tropical storm watch. If it makes landfall in Hawaii it would be the first landfall there since 1993.
For the East Pacific 160W to North America.

The CPHC is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Felicia located 595 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.

A broad low located some 800 miles SW from Cobo San Lucas (90E) has became better organized and a TD could form over the nest 48 hours.

A tropical wave located near Johnston Atoll has changed little in organization. Development of this system is not anticipated.

Another disorganized low is located South of Acapulco.