Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Too busy so here is the summary for past three storms
Tropical Depression Nine-E developed out of a small area of low pressure west-southwest of Baja California on August 9. The NHC initially forecast Nine-E to strengthen to a tropical storm by August 10, but moderate shear inhibited development, and the depression was no longer forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm, as the shear inhibited deep convection within the depression's circulation. Shear continually inhibited development until the end, when Nine-E degenerated to a remnant low on August 12. The next day, the NHC noted the possibility for regeneration of the system, although, by late on the 14th, the disturbance had weakened, and was becoming embedded in the ITCZ, as a result, the probability for regeneration was low. Nine-E's remnants dissipated on August 15, while located just within the central Pacific.
Tropical Depression One-C developed out of an area of low pressure southwest of Kauai on August 11. Since it formed when Hurricane Felicia was still active, its formation made August 11, 2009 the first time since October 31, 2002 that two tropical cyclones were active in the central north Pacific at the same time. It was numbered One-C as it was the first system to develop in the Central Pacific region, even though Lana was named there.[4] Late that day, the system strengthened to a tropical storm and was named Maka, the second named storm to form in the Central Pacific in 2009. The next afternoon, the final advisory on Maka was issued as it weakened, degenerating into a remnant low, likely caused by unexpected shear. The remnants of Tropical Storm Maka crossed the international dateline and moved into the Western Pacific and regenerated into a tropical depression.
Hurricane Guillermo formed on August 12 from a broad area of low pressure nearly 700 miles SW of Baja California. The system developed a good series of banding features and convection, and as a result, in the afternoon later that day, it strengthened into a tropical storm, the seventh in the eastern Pacific that year. On August 14, it strengthened to become the fourth hurricane of the season, concurrent to the development of a good, banding type eye. That afternoon, Guillermo strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane with maximum winds increasing to 100 mph (155 km/h). Early on August 15, Guillermo intensified to become the second major hurricane of the season, as it was upgraded by the NHC to a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum winds increasing to 115 mph (185 km/h). On August 16 it crossed into the Central Pacific basin as a Category 1 hurricane, and then quickly weakened to a tropical storm thereafter.
Sunday, August 9, 2009
TD is forming from 90E
LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Felica, 90E, 92C
For the East Pacific 160W to North America.
The CPHC is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Felicia located 595 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.
A broad low located some 800 miles SW from Cobo San Lucas (90E) has became better organized and a TD could form over the nest 48 hours.
A tropical wave located near Johnston Atoll has changed little in organization. Development of this system is not anticipated.
Another disorganized low is located South of Acapulco.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
What a difference 2 days can make
Monday, August 3, 2009
99E
TD could be froming?
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Update
An area to watch
Montoring two areas
A second area of disturbed weather is over the Mexican Mainland and the Gulf of California. It looks impressive this morning. However land interaction will likely inhibit development. Regardless of development heavy rainfall could lead to flash floods and lightning over Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, California, and Nevada this weekend.
Note: This image is not mine
Confusion with Lana
Friday, July 31, 2009
Tropical Storm Lana
Monday, July 20, 2009
2009 PHS
Tropical Depression One-E
An area of disturbed weather persisted off the southwest Mexican coast on June 15.[5] It moved slowly west-northwestward, developing an area of low pressure as it became better organized.[6] The system continued to organize, and on June 17 the National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted the likelihood for tropical cyclogenesis, although at the time the circulation was not well-defined.[7] Subsequently it organized further,[8] and early on June 18, the NHC initiated advisories on the first tropical depression of the 2009 season about 370 miles (595 km) south-southwest of Mazatlán, Mexico.[9] Deep convection persisted near the southern portion of the depression; however, the northern portion of the depression was partially devoid of convective activity. A mid to upper-level trough situated over the Baja California Peninsula led to a northward movement of the depression.[8] The system remained disorganized most of its lifetime due to shear. One-E dissipated as it made landfall early on June 20.[10]
On June 19, 2.44 in (62 mm) of rain fell in Mazatlán, near where the remnants of the depression moved ashore.[11] High winds in Mazatlán knocked down several trees, cutting power to numerous residents. Heavy rains also triggered street flooding throughout the city.[12] Landslides along major roadways caused several accidents, one involving a bus that was damaged by rocks.[13]
Andres originated from a broad area of disturbed weather associated with remnant of tropical depression One-E persisted off the southern coast of Mexico after Tropical Depression One-E formed, which generated shower and thunderstorm activity. At this time, the National Hurricane Center remarked upon the possibility for tropical cyclone formation.[14] On June 20, associated convective activity began to organize.[15] The system continued to develop, though by early on June 21, the low-level center had not yet become well-defined.[16] Later that day, the NHC declared that Tropical Depression Two-E had developed near the southern coast of Mexico.[17] Early the next day, the depression strengthened to the first tropical storm of the 2009 season and was named Andres. Andres strengthened in a steady stage eventually becoming a hurricane around 2 p.m. PDT on June 23, although it was possible that Andres became a hurricane earlier that day. [18] It also brought gale force winds to the Mexican coast. The system then weakened back to a tropical storm shortly after. High shear and dry air weakened Andres rapidly to a depression on the 24th, with the NHC issuing their last advisory that day.
Rough seas produced by the storm led to the drowning of a fisherman off the coast of Mexico. Flooding caused by Andres resulted in the evacuation of 200 people and 14 shelters were opened to accommodate the evacuees.[19]
Tropical Storm Blanca
On July 6, an area of disturbed weather situated approximately 420 mi (675 km) south-southwest of Baja California, Mexico was designated as Tropical Storm Blanca by the NHC, skipping tropical depression status.[1] The newly upgraded storm featured deep convection and a possible eye-feature around the center of circulation. Favorable conditions allowed the storm to intensify later that day.[2] Large convective banding features developed around the central dense overcast during the morning of July 6, as winds around the center of the storm increased to 45 mph (75 km/h). All forecast models agreed on further intensification of the storm; however, some models indicated rapid intensification before the storm moved into a less favorable environment.[3] However, this did not happen, and the system moved into colder waters, weakening to a tropical depression on the 8th, before finally becoming a remnant low on the 9th. The remnants began moving northwestward, and they dissipated early on July 10, a thousand miles or more west-northwest of Baja California. The remnants of the storm brought unseasonable rainfall, although negligible, to parts of southern and central California on July 11.[4] The moisture reached the region after being pulled northward by an upper-level low off the coast of Oregon.[5] The storm produced usually heavy rainfall, exceeding 2 in/h (50 mm/h) at times.[6]
On July 9, showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of disturbed weather located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California became more concentrated around a developing low level centre. In the early hours of July 10th, the system was designated as Tropical Depression Four-E, and the NHC commenced advisories. Around 2:00 p.m. PDT, the system strengthened into Tropical Storm Carlos. On July 11, Tropical Storm Carlos strengthened into a minimal Category 1 hurricane. It also developed a small eye feature, based on satellite presentation. However, by morning of July 12, the National Hurricane Center noted that the small eye-like feature had disappeared. Overnight on July 11 through the morning of July 12, the structure of Carlos became disorganized for unknown reasons. Deep convection contracted to a small region around the center of circulation and the overall size of the storm diminished. In the early afternoon hours, the continued degeneration of the system led to its downgrade to tropical storm status. Throughout the rest of the 12th and until mid-day on the 13th, Carlos continued to weaken, but the weakening trend slightly abated, enough for Carlos to reintensify slightly, from 50 mph to 65 mph. A statement from the NHC that day predicted Carlos to either stay at 65 mph for the next three days or so, or to constantly fluctuate in intensity. However, by July 14, a new eye wall developed and Carlos was given hurricane status again. It rapidly intensified to a peak of 90 knots, or 105 mph (at 0900 UTC on July 15), and the NHC noted the distinct "pinhole eye feature" in their TWD. By the end of July 14th, the eye had started to get less defined, and on the 15th, the system began a weakening trend. On July 16, Carlos degenerated into a remnant low, and the final advisory was issued. [1]
Tropical Storm Dolores
On July 14 a sprawling area of disturbed weather to the south of Baja California showed signs of tropical organization, and advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E were initiated that day. The depression soon strengthened into a tropical storm, being named Dolores during the morning of July 15, and later that day began developing good banding features as well as good convection. Dolores strengthened to peak winds of 50 mph early on July 16. But, later that day, the deep convection associated with Dolores began to weaken, and the storm began a slow, but sure weakening trend. Dolores weakened to a tropical depression late on the 16th, and by early the next day, all deep convection had been lost, and the NHC issued their last advisory on the weakened Tropical Depression Dolores, as it quickly dissipated over cooler waters and under adverse shear.