Showing posts with label Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. Show all posts

Sunday, August 15, 2010

92C dead, Offical mid-eason forcast

Invest 92C dead at last. It may rest in peace. Now, here comes the official season forecast for the Pacific. Early this year in April i predicted 19 named storms(CPAC included) 11 hurricanes, and 8 major hurricanes. However, in June the prediction has been lowered to 15-7-3. Today, I have set the prediction to 12-6-4. However, it takes only one hurricane to make it a band season as Agatha did in May for Guatemala. I give a 28% chance of a landfalling hurricane in Baja (average is 30%) with a 40% (average) chance of a landfalling hurricane in Mainland Mexico (excluding the Atlantic).

Friday, August 13, 2010

91E moves inland unexepcty but heavy rains are probable, guess whos back

91E has moved inland somehow highly unexpectedly. however, Heavy rains up to 15 inches in the high terrain can cause deadly flooding and mudslides with severe damage. Sorry, ti the wrong time for you vacation. Up to $30 million dollars in damage is possible. There rain could persist for a while at least thorough Sunday night.

The motion of 91E was highly unexpected. It was expected to move NW and parallel the coast, so we thought high waves would be the threat. However, it unexpectedly moved NE and moved inland. This shows how little we know about tropical cyclones. It went off or on the extreme edge of the forecast cone. Too bad the NHC did not declare it a TD.

Guess whos back? 92C for the fifth time. However, additional development is not anticipated.