Hurricane Preparedness Guide, Part 2, AOI looks decent

nce You Hear A Hurricane May Be Coming Your Way

1. 1
   Keep in mind that some hurricanes are usually slow travelers. Once you hear about it, chances are you have several days to finalize your plans. Be careful, though; some hurricanes can go up to 80 km/h, especially near the Atlantic Provinces of Canada.
2. 2
   Be sure you are well supplied with any prescription drugs that you or your family take on a regular basis. This can be a daunting task as some insurers will not honor refills until the last refill is nearly used up or has run out. If necessary, drugs must be purchased without insurance; weeks may go by without the ability to get refills, putting your health (or even your life) at risk.
3. 3
   Put all of your valuables into clear plastic bags or high off the floor.
4. 4
   Cook all raw meats in your refrigerator and freeze them. They will help keep the other food cold and you can take them out one at a time for meals that do not require cooking.
5. 5
   Put all the ice that you have in your freezer into plastic bags. Fill all spaces in your freezer with bags of ice. Keep your refrigerator door closed as much as possible to minimize thawing. Freeze water bottles, too.
6. 6
   Make sure that you have a BBQ and lots of charcoal or propane so that you can cook and heat foods for meals. Small propane bottles can also connect to lamps, heaters, and cooking appliances.
7. 7
   Stay on top of the news. How often you watch the Weather Channel is up to you, but if you start to feel overwhelmed or panicky, turn it off. You can always turn the news back on when you feel better. Either that, or ask a trusted neighbor to let you know when a hurricane will likely head your way so you can be informed when news watching is absolutely vital. It may be a good idea to evacuate your area beforehand, since traffic will be a problem during a mandatory evacuation order.
8. 8
   Decide whether or not you will evacuate. It's best to get out of town before it becomes mandatory, or even recommended. If you wait until the last minute, an hour will have passed before you get out of your driveway.
9. 9
   Inform your family and friends about your decision. They will rest easier if they know what you plan to do and why.

editIn the Event You Decide to Evacuate

1. 1
   Determine when and how you will evacuate. If you don't have a car, don't be too proud to ask others for help. If you do, leaving at an off-hour such as 2am is the best way to assure minimal traffic.
2. 2
   Consult a map in accordance to the advice given on the news. For example, if you live in Florida or Louisiana and the hurricane is said to be heading northwest, you'll want to have a route that heads northeast or north whichever one is safer and shorter.
3. 3
   Contact any friends or family that you may need to stay with during this time.
4. 4
   Pack your car, not only with necessities such as food (which should be in your Hurricane Preparedness Kit) clothing and medicine, but photos and important papers such as birth certificates and shot records leaving, pack things that you would not want to be without both for your time away from home and in the event all is lost. A good rule of thumb is to plan about a week's worth of away time (don't forget the laundry soap, etc. just in case it's longer). Choose carefully. You presumably have a limited amount of space in your vehicle and space for humans is needed too. Make sure you have spare oil and consider taking an extra gas tank if you can safely carry one on or in your vehicle (gas stations on evacuation routes sometimes run out of gas).
5. 5
   Protect your home and yard and then leave as far in advance of landfall as is possible and prudent. (For steps on protecting the home, see below).
6. 6
   If you will be staying with friends, family, or in a hotel (don't count on it, have a back up plan even if you've made reservations ahead of time) withdraw sufficient cash for two weeks. ATMs and banks may not be operating in the aftermath of a major hurricane and some credit card machines will be down. If you expect to be displaced, a family of four needs approximately $500 to last a week if you'll be staying in hotels. You'll need less than that if you will be staying with friends, relatives or in a shelter.
7. 7
   Make sure your cell phone and extra cell phone batteries (get them if you do not already have some) are charged before leaving or before the power can go out. You can charge them up with the power from your car if you have a DC to AC converter.
8. 8
   Stay calm and collected, especially when you are around little kids who might easily get scared when their parents are stressed out. Around small children, make the hurricane preparation/evacuation into an unexpected vacation or adventure.
9. 9
   Double-check for last minute details. Is the power, gas, and water turned off? Do you have everything you need? Is the first driver well-rested or would another couple of hours of rest do him or her a world of good? Did you bring all your pets along? Leaving at 4am instead of 2am if you need to will still keep you out of the main flow of traffic, so there's no need to rush since any driver needs to stay on top of things especially during an evacuation.

edit If You Decide to Stay

1. 1
   Take all measures to protect your home and property. It is not only your stuff you are protecting but yourself and your family who have stayed behind. If you have removable hurricane shutters, try to put them up at least two days before landfall. Holding a 25-pound aluminum shutter while balancing on a ladder in 74 mph winds is no fun and can lead to bad things. If you are using plywood, get your wood and nails early.
   
   
   • There is a risk of less-than-ideal folks wandering around the neighborhood possibly looking for an empty home to rob. Lock all doors and windows, place heavy, opaque drapes in front of windows to prevent outside eyes from looking in, and if you have them and if you live in the US, load up on several rounds of ammunition for your rifles, shotguns, handguns, and pistols prior to the hurricane's arrival. Advertise that there are weapons in the vicinity. Don't try this in Canada though -- you'll get arrested.
2. 2
   Move into your home or garage all pots, patio furniture, grills and anything else that can blow around. Do not sink any furniture into a swimming pool, this is an old-wives-tale and a very bad idea.
3. 3
   Make a list of everything you will need if you are stranded and without power for two weeks. See "Things You'll Need" below.
4. 4
   Designate a "safe room" in case your home's integrity is compromised. The "safe room" should have no windows or exterior doors and preferably only one interior door. Bring in a mattress to lean upright against the door and pre-stock it with a radio, batteries, flashlight and enough food, water and pre-moistened napkins to last 12 hours. Make sure all household members know that they are to run to this room once the wind starts rushing into the home. All pets, if you have them, must go here too during the hurricane. Keep any equipment your pet may need, i.e. water or cat litter, in this room too.
5. 5
   Stay as far away from windows and doors from the moment of landfall. If the power has gone out, listen for wind and rain that will steadily increase as the hurricane nears.
6. 6
   Extinguish all candles once the rain and winds reach thunderstorm levels. This is to assure they are not accidentally left lit when and if the winds start whipping through your home. A safe way to use candles is to put them in a saucepan, deeper than the candle is high, with shiny sides. The light will reflect off the ceiling and inside of the pot, and the candle will be protected from being knocked over. An inch or so of water in the pot isn't a bad idea, either. However, if you smell gas, hear gas, or even suspect a gas leak, do not use candles. Use light sticks.
7. 7
   Keep a radio on as the hurricane approaches. Often, the major radio stations will have special coverage in the local programs if a hurricane is coming.
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edit Tips

• Stay away from flying and sharp objects.
• You should not think twice about leaving if: (a) you are under a mandatory evacuation order; (b) a Category 3–5 hurricane is likely and you are within 100 miles of shore; (c) you live in a manufactured home or camper and a hurricane of any strength is on its way to you; or (d) you cannot shutter or board-up your home.
• Communication and teamwork is key. Stick together, work together and heed the instructions of safety officials.
• You can pick up a car refrigerator for under $50. It runs off your car battery. Though not large, a car fridge can store at least a day's preparations and may of course be refilled as needed.
• Bring car activities for kids (and adults).
• Make sure that you have enough time to get out of the danger zone, taking into account current traffic conditions based on news reports. The last thing you want is to be trapped in your car while the storm is coming ashore. Get out early by the fastest route possible.
• Not everyone has to do all of these steps or tips, if you are not directly or close to the eye of the storm. In this case, the most you can expect are heavy rains, and winds.
• Do not use a toilet if there's no water in the tank to flush it. The waste left there will produce a smell that is most unpleasant in your home. Each flush takes over a gallon of water. You could line the bowl with a garbage bag and then remove the waste from the home.
• A 5 gallon bucket lined with a garbage bag makes a good emergency toilet. But this method will use up a lot of garbage bags in a short amount of time; an alternative is to dig a hole in the yard and use it for an emergency toilet. You may also sprinkle cat litter in the 5 gallon bucket between uses. This will absorb liquid and allow multiple uses of a bag before removal to the outside of the house.
• If you have an outhouse or a composting toilet , use it.

edit Warnings

• Heed all directions of both the Red Cross and government officials.
• Throughout the preparatory phase and the storm itself, do not let your love of adventure overwhelm your common sense.
• Don't do what Torontonians did in 1954 when Hurricane Hazel came to town, which was disregarding the warnings. If there is a hurricane warning or watch issued for your area, believe it, no matter where you live.
• Remember, hurricanes can strike anywhere from the Carribean to the Eastern coast of Canada.

edit Things You'll Need

• Battery operated flashlights are fine if the power is out for a short time. The new LED flashlights work well, as long as a spotlight isn't needed. Target and other stores have good ones in the $10 range that drop into a pocket and run on AA and AAA cells. They're great for personal lights, and the batteries last five to ten times as long as with regular incandescent flashlights. Additionally, LED conversion bulbs are available on the Internet for more popular brands of flashlights.
• After a couple of days you will need candles for light. Buy big decorative candles that will burn for days. Keep lanterns/candles in frequently used locations, such as the bathroom counter, next to the door, and on your bedroom nightstand. IF there are gas leaks, explosive chemicals in your area, do NOT use candles, if you do, watch them to prevent fire, especially if children are with you.
• "Self Powered Lights" and "Self Powered Radios". This equipment is either solar powered, and/or has a "crank up" generator built into the light and the radio. Find the lights at the local Wal*Mart, the radios at the local Radio Shack and/or the Internet. This will save you money on batteries, IF you can find any, since they'll be sold out WEEKS before a storm hits you. Some of these models will also charge cell phones.
• Glow sticks. Can be found in the Wal*Mart and sporting goods dealers. Safer than candles, in case there are gas leaks, explosive,flammable chemicals in your area.
• Solar powered garden lights. You can charge them up in the sun by day and use them indoors for lighting at night.
• Battery-operated radio
• Canned goods and can opener, fruits and vegetables and other foods that do not require refrigeration.
• Water (at least one gallon daily per person with a seven-day supply). You can also fill up bathtubs if you close or seal the drains.
• Bleach. In the event that water enters your home, you will need to get it out and then kill any microbes that remain.
• Take highly-valued items with you or, for those items staying in the home, wrap in plastic or place in plastic bags. Even if you are riding out the storm, consider placing photos, insurance papers and other important papers in sealed bags.
• Corded phone. Even if your electricity is out, your telephone may still work. Cordless phones still require electricity, so plug in a corded phone, and you may be surprised.
• Cell phone and extra charged batteries. Some of the "Self Powered Radios" and "Self Powered Flashlights" allow you to keep your cell phone charged. IF the cell phone towers are damaged, destroyed, cell phones will be no good.
• A DC to AC inverter.
• Pre-moistened towelettes.
• Battery-powered fans will be very appreciated if the power is out.
• Lots of batteries of all sizes (you can always use later what is not used during the storm). Consider buying a car battery to power battery operated devices in the home.
• Make sure each person has their own flashlight and battery supply, in case you have to separate.
• A good supply of all prescription drugs.
• A first-aid kit.
• Optional but helpful is one pair of wading pants for each member of the family, or at least the adults of the household. If you live in an area prone to flooding, you do not want to be walking around with your skin exposed to contaminated water if there is a need, after the storm, to walk from the home.
• Plenty of large plastic garbage bags to dispose of human waste and other garbage.
• Supply of Toilet Paper, and other toiletries as needed.
• At least one 5-gallon bucket and cat litter (the bio-degradable kind) for toilet use.
• A pocket knife for cutting things.

The AOI looks decent right now, but it is moving inland soon and is expected to dissipate in about 48 hours. Now is a good time to prepare, use this AOI as a test system to what will likely happen in August or September.  

Here are the types of effects expected:
Up to 5 inches of rain
Minor flodding
High waves

 Interests in the area should monitor this blog for additional info.

How to prepare for a Hurricane Guide, Part 1, interesting model stuff, no change in AOI for now

At the Beginning of Hurricane Season (right now)

1. 
   
   Double-check to ensure the supplies in your Hurricane Preparedness Kit are both well-stocked and fresh. Inflate air beds to ensure they don't need patching or replacing. Check expiration dates on canned foods. Use a battery tester so you know they will work when you need them to (most batteries have a tester already attached to the package, but you can buy one separately if you want to).
2. 
   
   Recognize that your hot water heater contains 50 to 75 gallons of fresh drinking water. The water in a hot water tank can keep one person alive and healthy for more than a month. Attach a garden hose to the drain valve. Run water out of the tank to remove any built up sediment that has collected at the bottom of the tank. To get the water out of the tank after a storm you will need to open the plumbing system by opening any hot water faucet in the house. This will release the vacuum in the tank. You must turn off the electrical breaker to the hot water tank or unplug it to prevent damage if the electricity is restored before water service.
3. 
   
   Purchase a generator. Generally, a generator should be big enough to run your refrigerator, a lamp or two, and any fans. If you absolutely must have air conditioning, be prepared to pay handsomely for a generator that can handle it. Search the web for generator wattage calculators to make sure you don't buy more generator than you need - your wallet will thank you at the gas pump.
   
   
   • Purchase several 5-gallon gas cans. Fuel is usually scarce after a hurricane, and many stations even limit the amount of gas you can purchase after waiting in line. Having multiple cans will allow you to stock up. Buy a bottle of fuel stabilizer for when the power is restored. Mix this with your gas so that it will keep until you are able to use it. Also, fill and run your generator with the mixture for about 10 minutes so that the fuel system does not gum up while in storage. Change the oil and/or filter before you store it, that way it's nice and fresh next season.
   • If you already have a generator, make sure it is in working order before hurricane season. There is nothing worse than finding out that your generator investment needs repairs after you need to use it.
   • If you are unable to purchase a generator, buy a DC to AC converter for your car. With it you will use your car as a portable electric generator. They cost $25 to $100 and are available in the automotive section of department stores. If you should lose power to your house, you will be able run a radio, TV, light, refrigerator, or other low wattage appliances from your car. You will need a heavy duty extension cord to run the power into your house.
   • Do not run the car or any gasoline generator in the garage as the carbon monoxide poisoning could kill you.
4. Perform maintenance on the car you will be evacuating with if it becomes necessary. When's the last time you changed the oil or the filter? Is the battery fully charged? Have you replaced the spare that you had to use the last time you evacuated? Since hurricane season happens during the warmer months, make sure your coolant is topped off as well.
5. Buy a bicycle, if you don't already own one, so that you will have a backup mode of transportation. After a big storm hits there may not be any gasoline available for days or even weeks because of power outages and the gas pumps not working. If your neighborhood is destroyed you will be able to go for supplies or even ride out of the area. Make certain that the bike tires are pumped up before a storm hits. Have an inner tube patch kit and an air pump, too.
6. Watch or listen to the news to learn when a hurricane is approaching. This will help you create a plan of action.
7. Continue keeping in touch with your friends and family. They will gain comfort just knowing where you are, how you are faring, and how close the storm is to you. If you are in an area that is on the outskirts of the storm, tell them. Assure them that you are all doing good. Remember, they only know what they are told on the TV and their imagination runs wild. If you lose your telephone power, call them at least once with your cell phone, to tell them you do not have phone service, and that you will call as soon as it is restored. This way you do not have to use up your cell phone minutes which should be saved for emergencies

The AOI has not changed much these hours, but still something to watch. According tho the NHC  Experimental graphic, there is a 20% to 40% chance of development. Still, no mention on TWO.

The GFS model looks interesting these days,  with the latest run shows a few tropcial disturbances in the EPAC throughout the month of May, with one 1004-mb TD foretasted in a few days.  This suggest a pattern similar to August 2010 tropical activity wise. I know its only May, by it appears that we'll get going around June 5-12. Interesting.

AOI re-intensifies, La Nina appears to have gone, now in Neutral

The AOI's convection has increasing again and despite no mention on the TWO, it looks ok. And the La Nina has weakened further, and we are now in a Neutral pattern.

Here's the official numbers (from the CPC site)
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño1+2 0.9ºC

and here is the SST graphics (from BajaInsider):

And here's a look at the SST anomaly (from NOAA):

How to read a surface chart, Part 2, AOI weakens slighly

The AOI has became less organized, though the EPAC remains tropcial active. Environmental conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for development.

How to read a surface chart, p2

The first surface charts were created in the middle 18th century from information from reporting stations. Through much of weather forecasting history most of the tools used to predict the weather come from each of these stations. It is only in recent years that satellite imagery, radar and other high-tech tools have supplanted the station report as the most valuable tool in forecasting. Today, through the internet, the National Weather Service also takes in data from thousands of civilian weather stations, connected to home computers around the globe. There are more than 650 civilian reporting stations in Los Angeles alone. This large number of data points are obviously not plotted on the weather charts we see here, but add to the amount of data and understanding of weather anomalies and future forecasting techniques.
Therefore, it is arguably said, that the station model is the most important weather feature on a surface chart, as almost all other features are drawn from its data. The station model is in fact, jam packed with lots of information in a tiny little space. Unfortunately, to conserve space on the map one needs to write in code. Station models are coded to express almost all weather phenomenon. From the station model ascertain weather closer to you and if you are a sailor, predict the best course to plot for the wind and seas.
Station models are also probably the most prolific of all features on the surface chart as well. Looking like so many tiny golf course flags scattered haphazardly across the map, most are airports and military installations with calibrated instrumentation. Some reporting stations are ships as the example above shows. This is most likely the US Coast Guard Cutter running interdiction off the coast of Baja. There is also a seemingly endless number of symbols applied to Station Models and we will cover the most significant. There are so many different symbols that in my research I did not find one site that defined all of them. (here are some of the best examples found... Station Model Symbols01 Surface Model Symbols02 and Station Model Symbols03)
Your browser does not support inline frames or is currently configured not to display inline frames. The graphic left shows a majority of the information provided in a standard Station Model. Click in the descriptive titles to learn more about each of the weather characteristics encoded in a Station Report.
There is additional data that can be included in the Station Model, but these are the most common and most useful to those using surface charts to predict the weather in their area.
The first frame shows a semi-complete Station Report. By clicking on Layers 1 and two you can view the definitions of each of the code locations.
If you want to test your understanding of Station Reports and Surface Charts click here to see the World Detail Surface Chart for today (3mb PDF)

AOI better orgnaized

The new AOI has gotten better organized over the past hour or so. However, the convection has diminished. It will be interesting to see how the system fares, but there has been no mention of this system on the NHC TWO. Still, not bad looking system. 

How to read a surface chart, Happy hurricane season, 3rd AOI for the season

And the day we have all been waiting for, it is May 15, 2011, the start of the 2011 Pacific hurricane season. Now, today we'll tell you how to read a surface chart, but before we get started my readers can guess where I got my information from (Hint: It is one of the link on the top of this page). The winner will get a free invitation to the ##hurricanes IRC channel. 

Let' get started:

What is a Surface Chart? ( Click here to see the current Eastern Pacific Surface Chart) It is a map of weather conditions and forecasts for the next period. According to Answers.com a Surface Chart is as follows:
"An analyzed synoptic chart of surface weather observations; essentially, a surface chart shows the distribution of sea-level pressure (therefore, the positions of highs, lows, ridges, and troughs) and the location and nature of fronts and air masses, plus the symbols of occurring weather phenomena, analysis of pressure tendency (isobars), and indications of the movement of pressure systems and fronts. Also known as sea-level chart; sea-level-pressure chart; surface map. "
The most noticeable features on a Surface Chart are the High and Low pressure systems. Indicated by large letters, and when in color Highs are blue and Lows are red. In the northern hemisphere High pressure systems orbit clockwise, Low pressure systems orbit counter-clockwise. Movement of a Low pressure system is indicated by an arrow indicating direction of movement and a , located at the forecast position of the system at the end of the forecast period. Movement of a High is also indicated with an arrow of direction of movement and a . The direction of movement arrow is sometimes omitted if space doesn't allow. If the system is not moving "STATIONARY" is usually printed next to the system. The current barometric pressure reading for the system is indicated in millibars located usually above the symbol and underlined, (i.e. 1006). The future barometric pressure can be indicated by an underlined two digit number, near the future location of the system (i.e. 04 ) If the system is new, rapidly strengthening or this can be indicated with the written words such as "DISSIPATING, NEW or RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING" Hurricane strength conditions are indicated with "XX".
The reason our Eastern Pacific Hurricane usually move off into the Pacific is this counter-clockwise rotation of these extreme Low pressures. Like a rolling tire, the rotating action drives them to the southwest. Other environmental factors push them more to the north, and as the northern hemisphere cools the jet stream pushes them back toward the northeast and sometimes into Baja after late July.
Isobars are the long lines forming unusual shapes on a surface chart. and are directly associated with Highs and Lows and relative barometric pressures. indicated in solid or dotted lines, brown on color charts, these are rough demarcations of barometric pressure, taken from reporting stations. The closer together the lines, the greater the wind in that area. Wind does not blow parallel to these lines, because of the earth's rotation, but slightly off axis to a point of lower pressure. In the case of intense winds "DEVELOPING GALE" or "GALE" will be written on the chart
Fronts are a very visible and important feature too, although not usually for hurricane weather. In a color chart cold fronts are indicated in blue, Warm fronts in red, stationary fronts in red and blue and occluded fronts in purple. Fronts are a line, indicating position of the front. Warm Fronts have semi-circles, Cold Fronts triangles and stationary fronts have both. The side of the line on which the added symbols exist indicate the direction of flow from the front. Stationary fronts have both semi-circles and triangle on opposing sides of the line, indicating that the front isn't moving. Occluded front is where cold air has overtaken a warm front, using both triangles and semi-circles in purple, indicating the movement of the front."

We have our 3rd AOI of the season. Does not looks like much, but an organized burst of convection is present. The air is too dry for significant development, but it is at east something to watch. It is located near 111 W, 9 N.

Our next post will be this afternoon.

EPAC season almost here!

Yes, its that time of year again, Time for the 2011 PHS to start! We're starting to see more convection in the basin, and hopefully, we'll get started with the season soon.

Hurricne season very near, La Nina gone

Check your calender, everybody, Today is May 9, six days away form hurricane season. The GFS forecasts a storm to the develop in ate May as environmental conditions are becoming more favorable for tropical cyclone formation. La Nina appears to be gone, and we are now in a neutral weather pattern. BTW, hurricane week is on Sunday, see schedule below.  

AOI disspates, all quiet

Spring break and Easter is over. No more Easter bunnies. the AOI has dissipated and it is all quiet for now. Wind shear is increase, one more month till the lid comes off. I can't wait for the season to start!

90E may form in a few days

A second AOI of 2011 has formed. Not expected to do much , but it could become 90E. However, this is a good sign that Hurricane Season is starting. MJO forecast show MJO to become negative around May 5 and remain that way till May 20. Then, it will be neutral or positive through the remainder of May and into early June.

Countdown to hurricane season begins

We are one getting closer to hurricane season every week. As of this afternoon, we are 26 days, 14 hours, and 46 minutes away from the start of the 2011 PHS. Th end of the season lasts 200 days, so we are 226 days, 14 hours, and 46 minuets away from hurricane season as well.


Now, we quote Dr. Steve Lyons with some EPAC climatology
"May 15th, is the start of the 2009 East Pacific hurricane season, about 2 weeks earlier than the Atlantic Basin hurricane season begins (June 1). Both end November 30th. These dates have been set to encapsulate well over 90% of tropical cyclones that form in each basin. On rare occasions we find development before each season "officially" begins and/or after the season "officially" ends. The last time we had an early start to the East Pacific hurricane season was in 1996 when a tropical depression formed on May 13th, two days before the official start dated; the following day it became the first tropical storm that year, and to this day remains nameless, the second tropical storm to form that year was named "Alma." It turns out that on-average the East Pacific is more active than the Atlantic Basin, and this is the case in most but not all years (2005 being the clearest recent example). Since the satellite era began in 1965 tropical cyclone annual averages are 16 tropical storms, 8 of those becoming hurricanes. Of particular interest is the fact that prior to being able to see tropical cyclones in this area of the world with weather satellites, many tropical cyclones were missed as this is not a typical high ship traffic area, hence weather reports from them have been historically sparse.

Tropical cyclone averages were 8 named storms, 3 of those becoming hurricanes in our historical record from 1949-1964. Yes, more than half of all tropical storms and two-thirds of hurricanes went undetected before the satellite era and very likely many ships got into much rougher weather than they were expecting! Prior to the satellite era that began around the time I was in 6th grade (1965), meteorologists had thought the Atlantic Basin was a far more active tropical cyclone region compared to the East Pacific. It is interesting how wrong we can be when we make assumptions without accurate information!

AVERAGES	TROPICAL STORMS	HURRICANES
1949-1964	8	3

A large majority of tropical cyclone tracks are toward west of west-northwest and out to sea away from land. However each year is unique, some years have many more tracks that turn north and/or northeast toward land than other years. These track differences are related to changes in steering from one year to the next. El Nino years are more likely to see landfalls in Mexico and remnant tropical cyclones affecting California and the southwest U.S. Locations for formation of tropical cyclones in the East Pacific are the narrowest in the world, with a local maximum located near 15N latitude, 110W longitude.

The two most common U.S. impacts from East Pacific tropical cyclones are 1) high surf in Southern California from distant tropical storms and hurricanes and 2) flooding rains in the U.S. southwest that can at times spread across California and well into the central U.S. Surf can exceed twenty feet on south facing beaches of Southern California from swells coming from hurricanes offshore from Mexico. One year those swells were so high, some waves broke over the top of the Huntington Beach pier, the long-shore currents in the water were two to four miles per hour toward the north, and rip currents drown many beach goers. Flood disasters from remnants of tropical cyclones in California, Arizona, New Mexico and for that matter the entire southwest U.S. are too numerous to list. In 1939, one hurricane did not weaken over the cool California current as it headed toward that state. It made landfall near Long Beach and brought damaging tropical storm force winds, high surf and flooding rains. In 1972, Hurricane Hyacinth moved toward Southern California and although it weakened it struck San Diego as a tropical depression. So no, it is not impossible for California to be struck by a tropical storm, but it is rare, and far less rare for remnants of tropical cyclones to drift over Southern California and occasionally bring flooding rains in months that typically see no rain! I remember dancing in the street in heavy rains in the late summer of 1967 as hurricane "Katrina" moved up the Gulf of California and brought rains to San Diego and beyond. Yes, that was an interesting year with Hippies, Flower Children, motorcycle gangs and tropical cyclone remnants leaving their marks on my home state.
So before you head on that vacation to Baja, Mexico or Central America, check with The Weather Channel for any tropical cyclone threats that might affect you vacation destination. Oh and those of you in Southern California, you might win a party bet with that 1939 Long Beach landfall, just remember you are routinely vulnerable at the beach in high surf that can come from distant or not so distant East Pacific hurricanes.
"
The GFS storm we mentioned last week is turning into a modelstorm. Still, not bad for April.

GFS predicts EPAC storms in a few days,

Today is April 15, one moth away from the start of Hurricane season! Yet, we already have something to talk about. The storm (see header) looks a bit disorganized, and is located at 5N put for an April system, it is not bad, not bad at all. The question is will it be one of those GFS "model storms" that do not do anything at all? Only time will tell, but it is something interesting to follow at least.

 

How to prepare for the 2011 PHS

Note: Review these tips on Hurricane Week (May 15-21)

1. Keep a Hurricane Preparedness Kit packed (see "Things You'll Need"). This assures that you will lessen the amount of things you'll have to do when the time comes. Also, items such as batteries are easier to find when everyone else isn't panicking. As a bonus, if any other event, such as a fire occurs, you'll be prepared for that as well.
2. 
   
   Create a "take box". The take box should have everything you need to reconstruct your life in the event you evacuate and everything is lost. Passports; birth, wedding, adoption, divorce, and armed service separation certificates; copies of insurance policies; mortgage information; house and car title; large purchase receipts. You get the idea. If you have a scanner, save yourself space and heartbreak by scanning family albums and images of other keepsakes, burn those to CD and keep a copy in your take box, or make a copy of all your pictures, videos, music and documents on a external hard drive that you can keep in your take box. But remember that CD's can malfunction. Make sure you take along the original documents, if possible, make copies of them. The CD is just for convenience when shown to officials.
3. 
   
   Discuss and practice a disaster plan with your family.  Make sure everyone in the family knows who to contact (and how to contact them) as an out of area contact. Make sure kids know enough information so that an adult can get in touch with that person should sudden evacuation be necessary when you aren't near them. Practice this, and make other back up plans. This can be as involved as you like, but keep in mind the ages and temperaments of individuals to assure everything runs smoothly in the event you have to evacuate immediately.
4. 
   
   Learn how to turn off the gas and power to your home and make sure that all tools needed for the job are easily accessible. If you're not sure, speak with the gas or electric company for instructions. You don't want to be running around at the last minute trying to figure out how to do these things.
5. 
   
   Ensure that insurance matters are kept up to date. Hurricane season is not the time to buy flood insurance since it's either unavailable or very very very very very very very expensive.  Note: most regular home insurance does not include flood coverage in the policy, so you'll have to buy this separately.
6. 
   
   Keep in touch with friends and family that are out of the potential disaster area, and make arrangements to stay with them, in case you have to evacuate.
7. 
   
   Have someone remove dead trees and dead tree limbs and evaluate the health of any trees near enough to fall on your (or your neighbor's) house.
8.                                                                                                                                                            Check this blog regularly. Very important information. If you can't check one fo th elink listed blew the titles.  Chances are that this blog will give you the info you need.

Now, we'll announce the dates for hurricane preparedness week
May 15-Introduction. What is the EPAC all about? How to read a surface chart?
May 16-Hurricane Preparedness
May 17-Hurricane Preparedness, cont
May 18-Hurricane Forecast
May 19-Hurricane Names and other data sources
May 20-Hurricane Damage
May 21-Hurricane History

Note:these dates are subject to change

2011 Predictions

Its April, in a season under the name Spring. A month past a hurricane conference, which confirmed that Agatha nor Frank got retired. We are still in off-season, but we are getting there, getting close to hurricane week May 15-21.

It is time for our predictions. The La Nina that lead to the least active since since 1977 is gone at last. a neutral should appear by May, and an El Nino by October. Typically, under neutral conditions, we get 14-16 named storms. Waters are much warmer than last year. However, the pressure forecast look fairly balancedm and since hurricanes help balance out the pressures, they would be less hurricanes and the pressure over the tropcial Pacific. There is more ITCZ convection than normal this year, so that is a sign towards more activity. Our pre-season forecast goes for 15-4-3.  

The highest risk is the Mexican coast. I predict a lot of storms will form near the coast. In June and July, it will be boring. Form-intensify-die. In August, you will start to see a few major hurricanes, as upper level winds weaken over the tropical pacific. By mdi-August storms will start to threaten Mexican Riviera which extends from Acapulco to La Paz, but landfalls will be rare.  By late August, troughs will re-curve storms toward Mexico, and a landfalling Baja hurricane is likely during late August/early September. September will be quiet with only two storms expected, despite one forecasted to make landfall.

October becomes a dangerous moth. Three quick storms will from around Ocotber 7-15, including one major hurricane than re-curves and strikes Mexico. In all, the ACE will be near-normal, in the 83-92 range.

BTW, a Baja California weather center played an April Fools joke. They wrote  "A freak tropical storm is working its way up the Pacific side of the Baja peninsula and is forecast to make landfall somewhere along the Southern California coast."- sourced from Bajainsider.com

Closing 2010 recap

Finishing off 2010, the strangest thing happened. It's December 29, hurricane season is over, its the middle of winter for gods sake. In an area that has been devoid of activity through the year. Yet, 92C emerges into the EPAC and develops into Tropical storm Omkea. however, it dies the next day, but thats sure some surprise.

PDO value

Pacific Decade Oscillation values form the period 993-1996. Data from McDonald 2005.

993       0.610972
 994       0.398854
 995       -0.90431
 996      -0.084949
 997       0.143107
 998      -0.302822
 999       0.487957
1000        0.78263
1001       0.096265
1002      -1.182662
1003       -1.08856
1004      -0.721918
1005      -1.811442
1006      -1.636119
1007      -1.557574
1008      -1.278072
1009      -0.634053
1010      -0.420506
1011      -0.595148
1012      -0.615128
1013      -1.404196
1014      -0.876231
1015      -0.766742
1016      -0.874224
1017      -0.672612
1018       -0.29844
1019      -1.014836
1020      -0.908856
1021      -0.564654
1022      -0.697949
1023      -0.472793
1024      -1.075726
1025      -1.406949
1026      -1.743798
1027      -1.692331
1028       -1.41769
1029      -1.055025
1030      -0.660392
1031      -1.164732
1032        -1.8232
1033      -1.730899
1034      -1.553514
1035      -1.715771
1036      -1.389029
1037      -1.261503
1038      -1.603696
1039      -1.711388
1040      -1.331025
1041      -1.259484
1042      -1.572729
1043      -2.098637
1044      -2.032666
1045      -1.488919
1046      -0.680744
1047      -1.964579
1048      -1.972432
1049       -1.24561
1050       -0.63808
1051      -0.353681
1052       -0.73183
1053      -1.034759
1054      -1.338263
1055      -1.275902
1056       -1.18306
1057       -0.68862
1058      -1.151295
1059      -1.589114
1060      -1.348268
1061      -0.721187
1062      -1.513371
1063      -1.328924
1064      -0.963789
1065      -1.407793
1066      -1.512335
1067       -1.70579
1068      -1.704043
1069      -1.356449
1070      -1.005761
1071       -0.78434
1072      -1.257634
1073      -1.318024
1074       -1.87775
1075      -0.953864
1076       -0.98513
1077      -0.860277
1078      -0.609671
1079      -0.769308
1080       -0.31998
1081       -0.06767
1082      -0.180393
1083      -0.568871
1084       0.176556
1085        0.54737
1086      -0.125704
1087      -0.696355
1088      -0.323303
1089      -0.868453
1090      -0.836803
1091      -0.599694
1092      -0.015811
1093      -1.122061
1094      -1.381153
1095       -1.27344
1096      -0.590176
1097      -0.183164
1098      -0.655316
1099      -0.892356
1100      -0.042688
1101      -0.778147
1102      -1.166141
1103      -1.277443
1104      -0.900226
1105      -0.595082
1106      -0.554687
1107      -0.229431
1108      -0.592911
1109      -0.304366
1110      -0.348862
1111      -0.280658
1112        -0.5546
1113      -1.584251
1114      -1.695654
1115      -0.833832
1116      -0.810894
1117      -0.399839
1118      -0.190328
1119       -0.38025
1120      -1.053086
1121      -2.063962
1122      -0.995217
1123       -0.97924
1124       -0.59804
1125      -1.184244
1126      -2.021974
1127      -2.075859
1128       -1.62641
1129      -1.078963
1130      -0.975118
1131      -1.082897
1132      -1.646889
1133      -1.990093
1134      -2.242722
1135      -1.906085
1136      -1.626903
1137      -1.333253
1138      -1.318408
1139      -0.847591
1140      -0.562991
1141      -0.671182
1142      -1.446561
1143       -1.43945
1144      -1.133246
1145      -0.603797
1146      -1.372836
1147      -1.509173
1148      -0.982903
1149      -1.003451
1150      -1.263269
1151      -1.420654
1152      -1.000732
1153      -1.047644
1154      -1.411954
1155      -0.611392
1156      -1.144599
1157      -1.065554
1158      -1.299744
1159      -0.616306
1160      -0.375592
1161      -0.009208
1162       0.054026
1163        0.08911
1164      -0.071552
1165        0.39434
1166       0.517937
1167       0.670961
1168       0.070316
1169       -0.11498
1170      -0.561616
1171      -0.472572
1172       0.007436
1173       0.023801
1174      -0.496742
1175      -0.354577
1176      -0.388739
1177      -0.107419
1178      -0.408236
1179      -1.091588
1180      -0.598183
1181      -0.015963
1182      -0.747687
1183      -0.568039
1184      -0.001084
1185      -0.112472
1186      -0.585591
1187      -0.535452
1188      -0.727372
1189        -0.8327
1190      -0.776688
1191       -0.36077
1192      -0.751463
1193      -0.273914
1194       -0.16657
1195       -0.02139
1196      -0.588177
1197      -0.555676
1198      -0.306244
1199      -0.830332
1200      -0.293892
1201       -0.41836
1202      -0.755466
1203      -0.578547
1204        0.02514
1205       0.364368
1206       0.115774
1207      -0.048756
1208      -0.346811
1209       0.361734
1210       0.541442
1211       0.340128
1212       0.206612
1213      -0.242467
1214      -0.953192
1215      -1.283182
1216      -0.994999
1217      -0.999316
1218      -1.321135
1219      -1.075501
1220       0.019859
1221      -0.503318
1222      -0.296648
1223      -0.768875
1224      -0.834684
1225      -0.970576
1226       -1.35582
1227      -2.342246
1228      -0.875747
1229      -1.080037
1230      -1.437344
1231      -0.601289
1232      -0.727147
1233      -0.607046
1234      -0.625688
1235      -0.593154
1236      -1.149176
1237      -0.759566
1238       0.069188
1239        0.48276
1240       0.331269
1241       0.626653
1242       0.238832
1243       -0.15804
1244      -0.623536
1245      -0.779091
1246      -0.595158
1247      -0.376275
1248       0.145211
1249       0.685544
1250       0.218477
1251      -0.785764
1252      -0.541929
1253       0.087606
1254      -0.585612
1255      -0.750871
1256      -0.470351
1257      -0.148001
1258      -0.535967
1259      -0.196543
1260       0.037565
1261       0.394084
1262      -0.191711
1263      -1.099801
1264      -0.843149
1265      -1.226955
1266      -0.928631
1267       -0.62874
1268      -0.109501
1269       0.018945
1270        0.16762
1271       0.432772
1272       0.313552
1273       0.365109
1274       0.129411
1275       0.498041
1276      -0.746164
1277      -0.935273
1278      -0.454016
1279      -0.406842
1280      -0.740792
1281      -0.341408
1282       0.702109
1283       0.912973
1284      -0.463374
1285      -1.732417
1286      -1.517522
1287       -1.32636
1288      -1.915036
1289      -1.036383
1290      -0.835435
1291      -1.054331
1292      -1.030097
1293      -1.466418
1294      -1.014433
1295      -1.070027
1296      -2.442642
1297      -1.960667
1298      -1.548417
1299      -1.355037
1300      -1.470884
1301      -0.495974
1302      -1.270152
1303       -0.68407
1304      -0.453701
1305      -0.565427
1306       0.081823
1307      -0.903918
1308       -1.23521
1309      -1.154312
1310      -0.886475
1311      -0.286229
1312      -0.022032
1313       0.648643
1314       0.389173
1315       0.153505
1316       0.066651
1317        0.86228
1318       0.448449
1319       1.014303
1320       1.225745
1321        1.17301
1322       0.090789
1323      -0.092578
1324       -0.02955
1325      -0.225046
1326      -0.696518
1327      -0.592719
1328      -0.301297
1329      -1.163605
1330       0.048851
1331       0.398527
1332       0.864271
1333        0.73815
1334       0.736305
1335       -0.43149
1336      -0.526118
1337      -0.453392
1338      -1.173573
1339      -1.361497
1340      -0.529436
1341      -0.410623
1342       0.075033
1343       0.584348
1344       0.980993
1345       1.125168
1346       1.121896
1347       0.514088
1348       0.290645
1349        0.48194
1350        0.33842
1351      -0.234185
1352      -0.315786
1353       0.011068
1354      -0.001276
1355      -0.069913
1356       0.271634
1357       0.038353
1358      -0.622984
1359       0.215697
1360       0.106801
1361      -0.109139
1362      -0.227057
1363       0.498763
1364       0.146521
1365       0.215873
1366        0.44097
1367       0.343063
1368       1.210888
1369       1.360356
1370       1.188877
1371       0.381211
1372       1.073588
1373       1.231962
1374       0.775542
1375       0.485715
1376      -0.005323
1377      -0.530923
1378      -0.008682
1379      -1.447047
1380      -0.923839
1381       0.232449
1382       0.146879
1383       0.643915
1384      -0.355366
1385      -0.786725
1386      -0.429154
1387      -0.449626
1388      -0.286873
1389      -0.652566
1390       -0.51335
1391      -0.694846
1392      -0.253799
1393       0.423109
1394       0.105586
1395       0.011563
1396      -0.708007
1397      -0.619218
1398      -0.736538
1399      -0.139301
1400       0.160388
1401       0.199035
1402      -0.231702
1403      -0.277435
1404       0.183528
1405      -0.391875
1406      -0.234777
1407      -0.600903
1408      -0.502344
1409      -0.767239
1410      -0.812857
1411      -1.259003
1412      -0.616641
1413      -1.858224
1414      -1.796555
1415      -1.104645
1416      -0.969762
1417      -0.325691
1418      -0.276241
1419       -0.50692
1420        0.32884
1421      -0.217864
1422      -0.721131
1423      -0.124767
1424       -0.02346
1425      -0.318207
1426      -0.651339
1427      -0.386498
1428       0.325286
1429      -0.056451
1430      -0.522373
1431      -0.029831
1432       0.229296
1433       0.483749
1434       0.166761
1435      -0.010852
1436       0.073835
1437       0.268476
1438       0.052154
1439      -0.032177
1440      -0.183171
1441       0.550548
1442       0.599248
1443       0.097167
1444      -0.521206
1445      -0.042516
1446      -0.073117
1447      -0.163041
1448       0.165561
1449      -0.040434
1450      -0.335187
1451      -0.237963
1452      -0.836295
1453       0.006911
1454       0.261774
1455       0.718525
1456       0.580117
1457      -0.011794
1458       0.654666
1459       0.842696
1460      -0.002527
1461       0.456873
1462       1.129018
1463       1.605103
1464       0.344982
1465       0.190076
1466       0.929238
1467       2.139513
1468       0.814102
1469       1.152639
1470       1.185804
1471       1.181171
1472       1.626164
1473       0.827436
1474       0.755216
1475       0.693094
1476        0.57276
1477        0.91391
1478       1.520277
1479       0.825218
1480       0.661633
1481       1.449893
1482        1.69329
1483       1.545744
1484       1.519372
1485       1.327506
1486       0.990543
1487        0.71146
1488       1.405382
1489       2.124125
1490       0.976058
1491       0.267228
1492      -0.393873
1493      -0.687513
1494      -0.245825
1495       0.628098
1496        0.45645
1497       -0.81464
1498       0.018049
1499       1.131384
1500       0.404067
1501       0.381111
1502       0.059652
1503       0.879983
1504       0.649254
1505       0.080995
1506      -0.138661
1507       0.024617
1508       0.040646
1509       0.999553
1510       0.957963
1511       0.511068
1512       0.599314
1513       0.585284
1514       0.620893
1515       0.789714
1516       1.080725
1517       1.570804
1518       0.484588
1519        0.23149
1520      -0.083166
1521      -1.112665
1522      -0.232256
1523      -0.101407
1524       0.312418
1525       0.154716
1526       0.663851
1527       0.923075
1528       1.006438
1529       0.482802
1530       0.801262
1531       0.829609
1532        0.91638
1533       0.774917
1534       1.308491
1535       1.575017
1536       1.264737
1537       1.271726
1538       1.170126
1539        1.09405
1540       1.798117
1541        0.69873
1542       0.185965
1543       0.705668
1544       0.339698
1545       0.652508
1546       1.168751
1547       0.529866
1548       0.214871
1549       0.492315
1550       1.069851
1551       1.724084
1552       1.676379
1553       1.102262
1554       1.396898
1555       0.933665
1556       1.662383
1557       1.930751
1558       2.280423
1559       0.834958
1560       1.056728
1561       1.021918
1562       1.344869
1563       0.949415
1564       1.156426
1565       1.444223
1566       0.837973
1567       1.580616
1568       1.815627
1569       1.707907
1570       1.049179
1571      -0.147945
1572      -1.007551
1573      -0.006645
1574      -0.302974
1575      -0.023413
1576       0.411687
1577       0.646621
1578       0.774942
1579       0.275617
1580      -0.122376
1581       0.548694
1582       0.735238
1583       0.515207
1584      -0.106949
1585      -1.361453
1586      -0.398009
1587       0.017147
1588      -0.287786
1589       1.031045
1590       -0.16732
1591      -0.238208
1592       0.250067
1593       0.825646
1594        0.88766
1595       0.684766
1596       0.721609
1597      -0.222325
1598       0.290258
1599       0.681911
1600       0.751776
1601       0.083214
1602        0.10056
1603      -0.234864
1604       0.262864
1605       0.849718
1606       0.436897
1607      -0.259139
1608      -0.165694
1609       0.302042
1610       0.673774
1611       0.598672
1612        0.20541
1613      -1.362639
1614      -0.411573
1615       0.031596
1616       0.111647
1617       0.322714
1618       0.868994
1619      -0.013989
1620      -0.112718
1621      -0.073803
1622      -0.217472
1623      -0.030238
1624      -0.539222
1625      -0.310044
1626      -0.657259
1627      -0.008733
1628      -0.070805
1629       0.195911
1630       0.305666
1631      -0.500961
1632      -0.554729
1633      -1.274516
1634      -1.206673
1635       0.092216
1636      -0.202549
1637      -0.023532
1638      -0.278062
1639       0.374695
1640        0.06171
1641       0.130005
1642       0.009786
1643      -0.401659
1644      -0.331491
1645       0.230724
1646       0.435129
1647       0.191984
1648      -0.270052
1649      -0.006447
1650      -0.160589
1651       0.495954
1652      -0.176603
1653      -0.453989
1654      -1.785658
1655      -1.251507
1656      -0.479212
1657       0.195077
1658       0.264941
1659       0.170791
1660       0.109458
1661       0.344736
1662       0.198788
1663      -0.402643
1664      -0.552508
1665      -0.572796
1666      -1.017732
1667      -0.854293
1668      -0.902041
1669        -1.1404
1670      -1.483805
1671      -0.435451
1672      -0.846026
1673      -0.624866
1674       0.044525
1675      -0.942151
1676      -1.129961
1677      -0.445025
1678      -0.184142
1679      -0.577237
1680       0.313476
1681      -0.537008
1682       0.434756
1683       0.860183
1684       0.622428
1685       0.302433
1686       0.103492
1687       0.025498
1688       0.475276
1689       0.849942
1690       0.277944
1691      -0.361731
1692       0.446038
1693      -0.375813
1694       0.093392
1695       0.411029
1696      -0.009447
1697      -0.761918
1698      -1.109654
1699      -0.442921
1700      -0.508167
1701      -0.459392
1702       -0.30044
1703      -1.098943
1704       -1.11103
1705      -0.092923
1706      -0.207877
1707       -0.99122
1708       -0.79085
1709      -0.947475
1710      -1.214577
1711       -1.08523
1712      -0.282613
1713      -0.666362
1714      -0.941362
1715      -0.706593
1716      -1.384563
1717       -0.80717
1718       -0.01194
1719        0.20497
1720       0.206402
1721       0.179836
1722      -0.611172
1723      -0.731583
1724      -0.412099
1725       0.097407
1726       1.077143
1727       0.650328
1728      -0.467444
1729      -0.621567
1730      -0.156354
1731       0.049617
1732       0.543229
1733       0.159322
1734       0.052126
1735      -0.821183
1736      -0.923233
1737      -0.442791
1738      -0.120693
1739      -0.253995
1740      -0.020835
1741       1.019209
1742      -0.061946
1743       0.354656
1744       0.853713
1745       1.078364
1746       1.394988
1747       2.831877
1748       1.459992
1749        0.42351
1750       0.199256
1751        0.69952
1752      -0.712596
1753      -1.381643
1754       -1.24915
1755      -0.143025
1756       0.234845
1757        0.64215
1758      -0.051235
1759       0.216878
1760        0.76153
1761      -0.098752
1762      -0.539926
1763      -0.600555
1764      -0.006212
1765      -0.647596
1766      -0.004559
1767        0.00365
1768       0.334786
1769       0.591422
1770      -0.146515
1771       0.926813
1772       1.158734
1773       0.186011
1774       0.710338
1775       1.053725
1776       0.713237
1777      -0.200015
1778      -0.368472
1779      -0.202707
1780      -0.148201
1781       -0.32036
1782      -1.359598
1783      -0.926229
1784      -0.204053
1785      -0.041777
1786      -0.338761
1787      -0.039623
1788      -0.382073
1789      -0.329045
1790      -0.413653
1791      -0.044144
1792       1.563367
1793       1.324541
1794       0.228215
1795      -0.116613
1796       0.114221
1797       -0.17068
1798      -0.124054
1799       0.527364
1800       0.612193
1801      -0.073362
1802       0.468676
1803       0.006852
1804       0.664918
1805       0.605156
1806      -0.045173
1807      -0.881666
1808      -0.415171
1809      -0.725609
1810      -1.103365
1811      -0.051995
1812        -0.3551
1813      -0.557216
1814      -0.235932
1815       0.115775
1816      -0.479874
1817       0.622076
1818       0.899885
1819       0.090143
1820       -0.16326
1821       0.523148
1822      -0.237079
1823      -1.818157
1824      -0.930514
1825       0.437268
1826       -0.44878
1827      -0.379013
1828       0.279389
1829      -0.741129
1830      -0.935043
1831       -0.08667
1832       1.108124
1833        1.68853
1834       0.668147
1835       0.703455
1836       -0.33061
1837       0.154837
1838       1.146977
1839       1.843768
1840       1.032351
1841       0.582955
1842       0.535094
1843       0.207931
1844       0.292297
1845      -0.139314
1846       0.478825
1847       0.952324
1848       0.564335
1849       1.152055
1850       1.539869
1851       0.747573
1852       1.252445
1853       1.774079
1854       1.012012
1855        0.76854
1856       0.164832
1857      -1.835267
1858      -0.445403
1859       0.643279
1860       0.419625
1861       0.632413
1862       0.741705
1863       0.471816
1864      -0.161951
1865      -0.114174
1866        0.61643
1867       0.847676
1868       1.836156
1869       1.940441
1870       1.355814
1871       1.032728
1872       0.750741
1873       0.507736
1874       1.251801
1875       0.798435
1876       0.846841
1877       0.345468
1878        -0.1924
1879      -0.902646
1880      -0.952197
1881      -1.097778
1882      -0.388679
1883      -0.812226
1884       0.084565
1885      -0.542718
1886      -0.510186
1887      -0.067269
1888       0.063205
1889       0.948075
1890       1.079399
1891        1.41614
1892       0.712042
1893       0.672577
1894       0.174958
1895       0.072643
1896      -0.000117
1897      -0.067704
1898      -0.051823
1899      -0.183915
1900      -1.143214
1901      -0.330813
1902      -0.613554
1903      -0.243075
1904      -0.728491
1905       0.124799
1906        0.89985
1907       1.217414
1908       0.343433
1909       0.593117
1910       1.023612
1911       1.239603
1912       0.539644
1913       0.260791
1914       0.741937
1915       1.383711
1916       0.904242
1917       0.500912
1918       1.612198
1919       1.462253
1920       1.790239
1921       1.760437
1922       1.780852
1923       0.535021
1924       0.431274
1925       0.265444
1926        0.74952
1927       1.157571
1928       0.689714
1929       0.121048
1930      -0.120168
1931        0.79548
1932       0.683273
1933       0.460702
1934      -0.706578
1935      -0.404145
1936       -0.05109
1937       0.266303
1938       1.118075
1939       0.616829
1940         0.7788
1941       1.126378
1942       0.148665
1943       0.545426
1944      -0.092565
1945      -0.456846
1946      -0.514702
1947      -0.408623
1948      -0.621761
1949      -0.229414
1950      -0.783732
1951      -0.952573
1952      -0.220682
1953      -0.969309
1954      -0.863335
1955       -0.63819
1956      -1.099465
1957      -0.613956
1958       0.116571
1959      -0.347128
1960      -0.631982
1961       -1.45981
1962      -1.482087
1963       -0.59125
1964      -0.751903
1965      -0.711183
1966      -0.689263
1967      -0.174068
1968      -0.279324
1969       0.737198
1970       0.620375
1971      -0.255987
1972      -0.087468
1973        -0.0651
1974      -0.404718
1975       0.218742
1976      -0.013717
1977       0.168996
1978       0.408265
1979       0.644076
1980       0.807031
1981       0.522987
1982      -0.032361
1983       0.982663
1984       0.356553
1985       0.463944
1986       0.356153
1987       0.113256
1988       0.506175
1989       0.617055
1990      -0.080409
1991      -0.244111
1992       0.628857
1993       1.150391
1994       0.293471
1995       0.427283
1996       0.138711

fake season

Yea, this is a fake season I made. the EPAC season is over at this time.

Comapring this year with other years

1988	15
1989	17
1990	21
1991	14
1992	28
1993	15
1994	20
1995	10
1996	9
1997	19
1998	13
1999	9
2000	19
2001	15
2002	14
2003	16
2004	13
2005	15
2006	19
2007	11
2008	17
2009	20
2010	6
Average	14

HTML Tables

96E and hurricane season outlook

96E has formed near Sinora today. Soem slow devlopment is posible and a tropical depression could form in abotu two days as it parrels the coast of Mexico. Heavy rains are possible as the system passes offshore. This system will likely strike Baja California in about three days.

This season appers to be ending at 6-3-2. However, the basin could become active once more in October. We say 8-4-3 when it is finshed.

Frnak pekaing in intesity

Hurricane Frank has peaked in intensity with wind of 90 mph. It is now down to 65 mph. Additional weakening is expected.

Hurricane Frank slightly stronger

Frank is slowly intensifying. Winds have been increased to 85 mph. However, further intensification...if any.. will be slight over the next 12 hours. A weakening trend is expected to begin as shear increases and Frank moves over cooler waters. However, the leftovers could move into Baja California in about a week. Some rain and tropical storm force winds are possible near Socorro Islands s this system make its closest approach to the island in a day or two.

Frank a hurricane at last

Frank is gradually intensifying an dis officially a hurricnae at last. some intensification is possible, and it could reach winds of 80 mph soon. IT is foretasted to peak as a 85 mph hurricane. It should be noted the Baja is in the cone of uncertainty now with heavy waves possible along the NW Mexico's coastline. 

Frank not intesifing

Frank has became according to the NHC "becoming less organized". Winds are at 75 mph (65 really), and this system could become a hurricnae at any time if convection reorganizes. Frank is no longer expected to impact land.

Frank almost a hurrciane

Tropical Storm Frank is moving away from Mexico for now. However, it has became better organized. Winds have increased to 65 mph, 10 mph shy of hurricane intensity. Expect hurricane status soon with an outside chance of major hurricane status as shear decreases. Although the watches have been dropped, heavy rains and up to 15 feet waves is still possible. It is forecast to turn back to the north, and could strike Baja California in about five days.

Frank weakens, but expected to reintesify

Tropical Storm Frank has weakened today down to 50 mph. However, re-intensification is expected. It could become a hurricane by Wednesday.

Frank maintaing it's intesity

Tropical Storm Frank is maintaining it intensity due to some wind shear. The CDO has dissipated, but shear could decrease soon allowing for some additional intensification. It is expect to become a minimal hurricnae near Baja California. There is a lot of uncertainty in the storms track. the GDFL, HWERF, GFS, and the some of the minor ensemble models take this system very near or onshore Baja. Hopefully, Baja Insider (the hurricane Baja California agency) will give a good update today. Another are of disturbed weather is located near Frnak, but development of this system is not anticipated. In other news, the have fowered a hurricane potential impact  scale towards Erick Blake according to the NHC webmaster.

Update

Year	E storm	F storm
1990	June 26	July 6
1991	July 15	July 29
1992 (most active year on record)	June 22	June 22
1993	July 15	August 7
1994	July 16	July 19
1995	August 1	August 7
1996	August 30	September 10
1997	July 12	July 14
1998	July 29	August 6
1999	August 6	August 17
2000	July 16	August 3
2001	July 20	August 6
2002	July 23	August 21
2003	July 10	July 17
2004	August 19	August 23
2005	July 18	August 9
2006	July 21	July 31
2007	Jul 31	August 7
2008	July 16	July 24
2009	July 29	August 3
2010	August 10	August 22

HTML Tables

The table above shows the formation of each particular storm. This years stats are in italics, with records in bold. This table includes storms since 1990 only. On average, the E storms forms in July with the F in August.

Frank begining to rapidly intesify

Frank is beiging to itesfy very quickly, and coud reac hurricae intesity in about 24 hours. Watches and warnings remain in effect. Heavy rainfall up to 3 inches and gusty winds are execpted.

9-E now Tropcial Storm Frank

Breaking News:Tropcial Depression Nine-E now Tropical Storm Frank. The effects mentioned below are the same. This system is over 90 degree waters, and could strengthen rapidly.

Nine-E stronger Eight-E is dead

Tropical Depression Nine-E has intensified slightly. Winds are at 35 mph, heavy rain and win are possible along the Mexican coast not to mention the strong waves. Tropical Storm watches remain in effect and could be upgraded Tropical Storm Warnings tomorrow. Some rapid intensification is very possible, and could become a hurricane in 48 hours. Meanwhile, TD 8-E has dissipated

TD Nine-E forms, Eight-E almost dead

The tropics are active one again.  What a difference a few hours can make. Tropical Depression Nine-E has formed. Winds are 30 mph, and steady intensification is possible. This system could produce heavy rain, up to 20 foot waves and gusty winds. As such, a tropical storm watch has been issued. Tropical Depression Eight-E is still a tropcial cyclone, but fairly weak. It is expected to die overnight.

TD 8-E on the verge of disspation, 93 E forms

Tropical Depression Eight-E has weakened as strong wind shear and cold water has taken toll on the system. Dissipation is expected later today. 93E has formed near the Mexican Coast. Conditions appear conductive fro some slow development.

Classic overnight RI for what now TD 8-E

Surprise. 92E has rapidly developed overnight and is now Tropical Depression Eight-E. Some slight intensification is possible, and this system could become a tropcial storm soon. However, additional intensification will likely be inhibited due to strong wind shear and cooler waters. Despite this, it is foretasted to become a tropcial storm Sunday night.

92E forms

Another area of disturbed weather (92E) has formed near the coast of Mexico. Some additional development is possible, bu the system is expected two move over cooler water.

Intresting Statistics

Year	E storm	F storm
1990	June 26	July 6
1991	July 15	July 29
1992 (most active year on record)	June 22	June 22
1993	July 15	August 7
1994	July 16	July 19
1995	August 1	August 7
1996	August 30	September 10
1997	July 12	July 14
1998	July 29	August 6
1999	August 6	August 17
2000	July 16	August 3
2001	July 20	August 6
2002	July 23	August 21
2003	July 10	July 17
2004	August 19	August 23
2005	July 18	August 9
2006	July 21	July 31
2007	Jul 31	August 7
2008	July 16	July 24
2009	July 29	August 3
2010	August 10	??

HTML Tables

The table above shows the formation of each particular storm. This years stats are in italics, with records in bold. This table includes storms since 1990 only.

Using the static maps you might be asking "We are not that behind at all". But remember that we have had only one named storm since July 1. It should also been noted that the GFS predicts a TD in about six days.

This images above shows the map of all storms this year. The tracks itself is normal for a La Nina year. The activity itself is what makes this season behind.

A year that has fallen behind, another area of intrest dies

This year sure  has fallen behind. It is truing into a Bust. I have never seen this many invests not develop, and the MJO has flipped so it is unlikely we will see anymore cyclones for a while. It could set the record for the latest "F" storm if we get no activity be early September. Even if  were are/were in an El Nino, the shear is prevent anything from developing. A this right, we might have the last active season on record. We are SEVEN DAYS from the peak. In our last La Nina (2008) we were up to "J" at this put. We were up to "G" the year before that. In a very strong La Nina in 2005, we were up to "I" at this time. In a moderate El Nina in 2003 we were up to "I". So were a two storms behind the La Nina average, and it is unlikely that we will get any activity for a few weeks. 2008 was up to "M" at that time and 2005 was up to "J". 2003 was up to "L" as well.  Or could the shear relax and make a late-season run. But in recent years September has been inactive, save 2005. So the more you look at it appears more and more likely that we will have a year below our prediction of 12-6-4. In addition, a La Nina has been confirmed

The area of interest that has been watched for a few days now has dissipated. Both tracking service agencies predict nothing. However, a tropcial wave did bring some light rain to Central America last night, but has dissipated since then.

Another area formes

Another area forms far from the Mexican coast. However, strong wind shear will inhibit development. The next name on the list is Frank.  However, THIS SEASON IS A BUST.

Area of intrest goes poof

All of the convection left has dissipated and thus no tropical cyclones are expected at this time.

90E dies, 92E could form in a few days

Invest 90E has dissipated due to cooler waters. It should also be noted that there is another area of interest out in the middle of ocean. Strong upper-level winds will likely inhibit development, but the system could become 92E soon.

90E near the Mexican coast

90E is currently near the coast of Mexico. However, this system is disorganized and significant development is not expected. Heavy rain is possible (up to 4 inches) along the coast but expect light winds. Waves up to 15 ft are possible as well.

92C dead, Offical mid-eason forcast

Invest 92C dead at last. It may rest in peace. Now, here comes the official season forecast for the Pacific. Early this year in April i predicted 19 named storms(CPAC included) 11 hurricanes, and 8 major hurricanes. However, in June the prediction has been lowered to 15-7-3. Today, I have set the prediction to 12-6-4. However, it takes only one hurricane to make it a band season as Agatha did in May for Guatemala. I give a 28% chance of a landfalling hurricane in Baja (average is 30%) with a 40% (average) chance of a landfalling hurricane in Mainland Mexico (excluding the Atlantic).

90E and ex-Dainmu could threaten California , El Nino?

Invest 90E appears to be fading, but is expected to turn Northeast and possibly bring some showers, but no significant rainfall is expected. The leftovers of Dainmu could also bring some rain and intensify the monsoon, not to mention the MJO moving over the area into the Atlantic

I personally think there is still El Nino. While the SST's in the Pacific are below normal, the shear levels in the tropcial Atlantic suggest otherwise. The amounts of shear is typical of a moderate El Nino. Average them to out we are in a weak El Nino

90E near Soccoro Island

Invest 90E has changed little in modernization. The systme is currently near Socorro Island. Up to 3 inches of rain and 30 mph winds are possible. However, the main threat will be the waves. Up to 25 foot waves are possible. Stay out of the water PLEASE.

90E is back, could we have 92E soon, Cookie cutter basin?

Invest 90E has came back once again. Some development is possible, but is no threat to land. 92C has changed little in organization, and no additional development is expected. There is another area of interest south of the Mexican coast, but strong wind shear is expected to prevent further development.

The EPAC has recently been reffered to as the "cookie curter basin". However, IMO they were several interesting storms since 2005. 2005 had Kenneth 2006 had Bud, Daniel, Ioke, John. Kristy, Lane, Sergio 2007 had Flossie 2008 had Boris, Hernan, Norbert. 2009 had Andres, Carlos, Felicia, Guillermo, Jimena, Rick, Neki. 2010 had Agatha, and Celia. Others disagree, saying that 87% of the storms since 2005 are boring. It shows that some people hate it and some people like it.

91E back over water, 92E and 93E could form in a few days

91E has moved back over water, but conditions are expected to become less favorable for further development. The rains should diminish over Mexico during the next few days. They are two other areas to watch. One is near Central America, However, significant development is not expected, but we could see this become 92/93E. Rain chances form in Coast Rica should decrease over the next few days. Waves action should decrease gradually. Another area is located far out so see. Surface pressure are low, but strong wind shear will likely prevent significant development.

91E moves inland unexepcty but heavy rains are probable, guess whos back

91E has moved inland somehow highly unexpectedly. however, Heavy rains up to 15 inches in the high terrain can cause deadly flooding and mudslides with severe damage. Sorry, ti the wrong time for you vacation. Up to $30 million dollars in damage is possible. There rain could persist for a while at least thorough Sunday night.

The motion of 91E was highly unexpected. It was expected to move NW and parallel the coast, so we thought high waves would be the threat. However, it unexpectedly moved NE and moved inland. This shows how little we know about tropical cyclones. It went off or on the extreme edge of the forecast cone. Too bad the NHC did not declare it a TD.

Guess whos back? 92C for the fifth time. However, additional development is not anticipated.

91E almost a TD, 92C is back

91E is getting better organized, and is almost a TD. Additional development is possible and a tropical depression will likely form within the next 24 to 36 hours. Also, 92c is back on the CPHC page, but additional development is not anticipated.

91E forms

Just when one area of interest dies, another one is born. 99E has formed! Some gradual development is possible over the next few days. Once again, waves are issue up the Mexican Rivera, but due to westerly path of the system waves will not be as dangerous than 90E or Estelle.

Estlle has died, 90E going poof

Tropical Depression Estele has dissipated. In addition, 90E has became disorganized. No Tropical cyclones are expected during the two days.

Estelle almost dead, 90E has formed

Good news for beachgores, Estelle is almost dead. It southerly course will take it the remains of Estelle away from California. Good news there. Estelle's winds are 35 mph. Dissipation is expected overnight.

However, 90E has formed near Socorro Island, which got some rain for Estelle a few days back, is some sing sing or organization. However, no significant development is expected do to some wind shear. The main impact on Socorro are heavy rain. Up to an inch of rain is possible and about a 10 inch water rise is expected. On Mexico, wave up to 10 are very likely once again. These can produce deadly rip currents, the worst part of a La Nina for Pacific hurricane impact. Unlike Estelle the main threat for waves are near Mantalazan.

Estelle almsot a depression

Estelle is steadily weakening. Winds are down to 40 mph, and dissipation is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours. Minor affects in california in the form of rain and high waves are possible. However, if it moves move towards the south the predicted, it would not approach the break in the ridge in which would allow it to recurve.

There is also an are of disturbed weather south of Estelle. However, the associated convection is poorly organized and minimal.

Estelle starting to weaken

Estelle is starting to weaken. Winds are down to 60 and will likley be down to 50 at 3 PM. It is moving away form Mexico and is no threat to land for the next few days. disspation is expect by Tuesday. However, in abou a week , the showers left of Estelle could affect California. The rest of the Pacific is quiet, bot area have dissipated, but squally weather is expect for the next few days.

Tropical Storm Estelle a liitle stronger

Estelle counties to intensify, the winds have increased to 65 mph. It appears more likely that Estelle will become a hurricane. However, this is not in the forecast yet. After the weekend, it will begin to weaken slowly with dissipation expected by Tuesday night. The system is moving away from the coast, but higher than normal swells are expected. This can produce dangerous rip currents.

In addition, there are two area of disturbed weathers. However, significant development is not expected form both areas. One disturbance is located near Guatemala, with heavy rainfall possible along the coast. Another one is out to sea and will not impact land.

Tropical Storm Estelle has formed

Tropical Storm Estelle has formed off the coast of Baja winds are at 60 mph. this system is gradually becoming better organized. Some intensification is anticipated, and Estelle could become a strong tropical storms, with a small chance of becoming a hurricane. More importantly high waves up to 10 feet are expected over the next few days. Beachgoeres say out of the waters, and surfers should no go in. Meanwhile, there are two other ares of disturbed weather worth watching. The next name on the list is Frank.

Hurricane Celia and Tropical Dperession Blas

We now have Huricane Celia. Winds are at 65 knts. The NHC see says that it reach Major Hurricane Status in 48 hours. Blas has been dowgraded into 30 knt Tropcial depression. It is getting choked by dry air.

2010 season sart

Think got way soo active that I coudl not update on my blog. My favorite was Rick in October. To catch up check Wikpeida. Type in the ''2009 Pacific hurricane season" and "2010 Pacific hurricane season".

Too busy so here is the summary for past three storms

Hurricane Felicia developed out of a broad area of low pressure, several that formed hundred miles southwest of Baja California Sur on August 3, developing into Tropical Depression Eight-E the next day, shortly after Tropical Depression Seven-E formed directly to the east. It strengthened into a tropical storm and was named Felicia early on August 4. It rapidly strengthened that morning as an eyewall quickly developed, the rapid intensification being attributed to warm water along the forecast track, which allowed for more rapid intensification. Felicia continued to intensify and became a hurricane that afternoon. Rapid intensification continued into that evening, and the NHC upgraded Felicia to a Category 2 hurricane. It continued to rapidly strengthen, becoming the first major hurricane of the season on the morning of August 5, when the NHC upgraded it to a Category 3 hurricane. Later that day, Felicia rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane, with maximum winds increasing to 145 mph (230 km/h), making it the strongest storm in the Eastern Pacific since Daniel in 2006. The NHC predicted that Felicia would rapidly weaken during the next couple of days starting on August 6, but it was also noted by the NHC that Felicia was displaying annular hurricane characteristics, which would allow for it to maintain intensity for longer than expected over marginal SSTS. On August 8 it crossed into the Central Pacific basin, gradually weakening to a tropical storm and then a tropical depression as it approached the Hawaiian Islands. Tropical storm and flash flood watches were issued on August 7 for the Big Island of Hawaii and Maui County, and were extended to include Oahu on August 9. The watches for the Big Island were later canceled as the track for Felicia appeared to turn toward the north. All watches were canceled at 11 a.m. HST August 11 as Felicia dissipated to a remnant low.

Tropical Depression Nine-E developed out of a small area of low pressure west-southwest of Baja California on August 9. The NHC initially forecast Nine-E to strengthen to a tropical storm by August 10, but moderate shear inhibited development, and the depression was no longer forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm, as the shear inhibited deep convection within the depression's circulation. Shear continually inhibited development until the end, when Nine-E degenerated to a remnant low on August 12. The next day, the NHC noted the possibility for regeneration of the system, although, by late on the 14th, the disturbance had weakened, and was becoming embedded in the ITCZ, as a result, the probability for regeneration was low. Nine-E's remnants dissipated on August 15, while located just within the central Pacific.

Tropical Depression One-C developed out of an area of low pressure southwest of Kauai on August 11. Since it formed when Hurricane Felicia was still active, its formation made August 11, 2009 the first time since October 31, 2002 that two tropical cyclones were active in the central north Pacific at the same time. It was numbered One-C as it was the first system to develop in the Central Pacific region, even though Lana was named there.^[4] Late that day, the system strengthened to a tropical storm and was named Maka, the second named storm to form in the Central Pacific in 2009. The next afternoon, the final advisory on Maka was issued as it weakened, degenerating into a remnant low, likely caused by unexpected shear. The remnants of Tropical Storm Maka crossed the international dateline and moved into the Western Pacific and regenerated into a tropical depression.

Hurricane Guillermo formed on August 12 from a broad area of low pressure nearly 700 miles SW of Baja California. The system developed a good series of banding features and convection, and as a result, in the afternoon later that day, it strengthened into a tropical storm, the seventh in the eastern Pacific that year. On August 14, it strengthened to become the fourth hurricane of the season, concurrent to the development of a good, banding type eye. That afternoon, Guillermo strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane with maximum winds increasing to 100 mph (155 km/h). Early on August 15, Guillermo intensified to become the second major hurricane of the season, as it was upgraded by the NHC to a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum winds increasing to 115 mph (185 km/h). On August 16 it crossed into the Central Pacific basin as a Category 1 hurricane, and then quickly weakened to a tropical storm thereafter.

TD is forming from 90E

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Felica, 90E, 92C

Over the past 24 hours Felicia has weakened slowly and as of 8 AM winds are sustained at 70 mph and a pressure of 994 mb. Hawaii is now under a tropical storm watch. If it makes landfall in Hawaii it would be the first landfall there since 1993.
For the East Pacific 160W to North America.

The CPHC is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Felicia located 595 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.

A broad low located some 800 miles SW from Cobo San Lucas (90E) has became better organized and a TD could form over the nest 48 hours.

A tropical wave located near Johnston Atoll has changed little in organization. Development of this system is not anticipated.

Another disorganized low is located South of Acapulco.

What a difference 2 days can make

48 hours ago TD 8-E had just formed. Now Felicia is a 140 mph Cat 4 hurricane

Breaking News

7-e is Enquire and 8-E has formed

7_E is here, Lana done

2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 3
Location: 13.0°N 112.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb

Advisories for Lana have been dropped

Lana weakens

Lana is now a TD

99E

an are of low pressure 100 miles away from cobo remains disorganized. However, upper level winds are favorable for further development.

TD could be froming?

an area of low pressure located 700 miles from Cobo counties to organize and a Tropical depression could be forming. If this trend counties advisories will intalled later today.

Update

An area of disturbed weather off the Mexician Coast is producing disorganized thunderstorms. However, some slow development is still possible. Regardless of development, heavy rain and flash flooding is possible over the Mexican Rivera this weekend.

An area to watch

An area of disturbed weather located about 100 miles away from Mexico has gotten all flared op this afternoon. some further development is possible as it parallels the coast, though it will likely to be slow. Regardless of development, heavy rain and flash flooding is possible over the Mexican Rivera this weekend.

Montoring two areas

An area of disturbed weather near the Central America coastline remains disorganized. Development of this system is unlikely.

A second area of disturbed weather is over the Mexican Mainland and the Gulf of California. It looks impressive this morning. However land interaction will likely inhibit development. Regardless of development heavy rainfall could lead to flash floods and lightning over Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, California, and Nevada this weekend.
Note: This image is not mine

Confusion with Lana

There seems to be some confusion over whether six-E became One-C. The rule is that they retain its number or and its name when it crosses in the CPHC area of responsibility. However, the system received a CPHC name because it was named there.

Tropical Storm Lana

Yesterday the NHC noted that there was a chance that a tropical depression was forming. At 8 AM the NHC began issuing advisories on Six-E. Six hours later it became Tropical Storm Lana. Lana currently has winds of 65 mph.. The NHC thinks that this is its peak, but I think it will become a 80 mph hurricane and reach the WPAC as a 25 mph TD.

2009 PHS

The 2009 Pacific hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season officially started on May 15 in the eastern Pacific, and on June 1 for the central Pacific, and will end on November 30, 2009. For the first time in ten years, no tropical depressions formed during the month of May. This inactivity continued into the early part of June and was the least active since 1994.^[1] The first named storm of the season did not develop until June 21, marking the second latest start to a Pacific hurricane season since reliable records began.
Tropical Depression One-E

An area of disturbed weather persisted off the southwest Mexican coast on June 15.^[5] It moved slowly west-northwestward, developing an area of low pressure as it became better organized.^[6] The system continued to organize, and on June 17 the National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted the likelihood for tropical cyclogenesis, although at the time the circulation was not well-defined.^[7] Subsequently it organized further,^[8] and early on June 18, the NHC initiated advisories on the first tropical depression of the 2009 season about 370 miles (595 km) south-southwest of Mazatlán, Mexico.^[9] Deep convection persisted near the southern portion of the depression; however, the northern portion of the depression was partially devoid of convective activity. A mid to upper-level trough situated over the Baja California Peninsula led to a northward movement of the depression.^[8] The system remained disorganized most of its lifetime due to shear. One-E dissipated as it made landfall early on June 20.^[10]

On June 19, 2.44 in (62 mm) of rain fell in Mazatlán, near where the remnants of the depression moved ashore.^[11] High winds in Mazatlán knocked down several trees, cutting power to numerous residents. Heavy rains also triggered street flooding throughout the city.^[12] Landslides along major roadways caused several accidents, one involving a bus that was damaged by rocks.^[13]

Hurricane Andres

Andres originated from a broad area of disturbed weather associated with remnant of tropical depression One-E persisted off the southern coast of Mexico after Tropical Depression One-E formed, which generated shower and thunderstorm activity. At this time, the National Hurricane Center remarked upon the possibility for tropical cyclone formation.^[14] On June 20, associated convective activity began to organize.^[15] The system continued to develop, though by early on June 21, the low-level center had not yet become well-defined.^[16] Later that day, the NHC declared that Tropical Depression Two-E had developed near the southern coast of Mexico.^[17] Early the next day, the depression strengthened to the first tropical storm of the 2009 season and was named Andres. Andres strengthened in a steady stage eventually becoming a hurricane around 2 p.m. PDT on June 23, although it was possible that Andres became a hurricane earlier that day. ^[18] It also brought gale force winds to the Mexican coast. The system then weakened back to a tropical storm shortly after. High shear and dry air weakened Andres rapidly to a depression on the 24th, with the NHC issuing their last advisory that day.

Rough seas produced by the storm led to the drowning of a fisherman off the coast of Mexico. Flooding caused by Andres resulted in the evacuation of 200 people and 14 shelters were opened to accommodate the evacuees.^[19]

Tropical Storm Blanca

On July 6, an area of disturbed weather situated approximately 420 mi (675 km) south-southwest of Baja California, Mexico was designated as Tropical Storm Blanca by the NHC, skipping tropical depression status.^[1] The newly upgraded storm featured deep convection and a possible eye-feature around the center of circulation. Favorable conditions allowed the storm to intensify later that day.^[2] Large convective banding features developed around the central dense overcast during the morning of July 6, as winds around the center of the storm increased to 45 mph (75 km/h). All forecast models agreed on further intensification of the storm; however, some models indicated rapid intensification before the storm moved into a less favorable environment.^[3] However, this did not happen, and the system moved into colder waters, weakening to a tropical depression on the 8th, before finally becoming a remnant low on the 9th. The remnants began moving northwestward, and they dissipated early on July 10, a thousand miles or more west-northwest of Baja California. The remnants of the storm brought unseasonable rainfall, although negligible, to parts of southern and central California on July 11.^[4] The moisture reached the region after being pulled northward by an upper-level low off the coast of Oregon.^[5] The storm produced usually heavy rainfall, exceeding 2 in/h (50 mm/h) at times.^[6]

Hurricnae Carlos

On July 9, showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of disturbed weather located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California became more concentrated around a developing low level centre. In the early hours of July 10th, the system was designated as Tropical Depression Four-E, and the NHC commenced advisories. Around 2:00 p.m. PDT, the system strengthened into Tropical Storm Carlos. On July 11, Tropical Storm Carlos strengthened into a minimal Category 1 hurricane. It also developed a small eye feature, based on satellite presentation. However, by morning of July 12, the National Hurricane Center noted that the small eye-like feature had disappeared. Overnight on July 11 through the morning of July 12, the structure of Carlos became disorganized for unknown reasons. Deep convection contracted to a small region around the center of circulation and the overall size of the storm diminished. In the early afternoon hours, the continued degeneration of the system led to its downgrade to tropical storm status. Throughout the rest of the 12th and until mid-day on the 13th, Carlos continued to weaken, but the weakening trend slightly abated, enough for Carlos to reintensify slightly, from 50 mph to 65 mph. A statement from the NHC that day predicted Carlos to either stay at 65 mph for the next three days or so, or to constantly fluctuate in intensity. However, by July 14, a new eye wall developed and Carlos was given hurricane status again. It rapidly intensified to a peak of 90 knots, or 105 mph (at 0900 UTC on July 15), and the NHC noted the distinct "pinhole eye feature" in their TWD. By the end of July 14th, the eye had started to get less defined, and on the 15th, the system began a weakening trend. On July 16, Carlos degenerated into a remnant low, and the final advisory was issued. ^[1]

Tropical Storm Dolores

On July 14 a sprawling area of disturbed weather to the south of Baja California showed signs of tropical organization, and advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E were initiated that day. The depression soon strengthened into a tropical storm, being named Dolores during the morning of July 15, and later that day began developing good banding features as well as good convection. Dolores strengthened to peak winds of 50 mph early on July 16. But, later that day, the deep convection associated with Dolores began to weaken, and the storm began a slow, but sure weakening trend. Dolores weakened to a tropical depression late on the 16th, and by early the next day, all deep convection had been lost, and the NHC issued their last advisory on the weakened Tropical Depression Dolores, as it quickly dissipated over cooler waters and under adverse shear.

Dolores

Dolores is done.

Update

Carlos is a category 2 hurricane now that is undergoing an interaction from Five_E which formed last night.

Blanca finished

NRL stopped advisories on it.

NHC downgrades Carlos to a TS

NHC has just downgraded Carlos to a depression. Blanca continues to move up the West Coast.