Nine-E stronger Eight-E is dead

Tropical Depression Nine-E has intensified slightly. Winds are at 35 mph, heavy rain and win are possible along the Mexican coast not to mention the strong waves. Tropical Storm watches remain in effect and could be upgraded Tropical Storm Warnings tomorrow. Some rapid intensification is very possible, and could become a hurricane in 48 hours. Meanwhile, TD 8-E has dissipated

TD Nine-E forms, Eight-E almost dead

The tropics are active one again.  What a difference a few hours can make. Tropical Depression Nine-E has formed. Winds are 30 mph, and steady intensification is possible. This system could produce heavy rain, up to 20 foot waves and gusty winds. As such, a tropical storm watch has been issued. Tropical Depression Eight-E is still a tropcial cyclone, but fairly weak. It is expected to die overnight.

TD 8-E on the verge of disspation, 93 E forms

Tropical Depression Eight-E has weakened as strong wind shear and cold water has taken toll on the system. Dissipation is expected later today. 93E has formed near the Mexican Coast. Conditions appear conductive fro some slow development.

Classic overnight RI for what now TD 8-E

Surprise. 92E has rapidly developed overnight and is now Tropical Depression Eight-E. Some slight intensification is possible, and this system could become a tropcial storm soon. However, additional intensification will likely be inhibited due to strong wind shear and cooler waters. Despite this, it is foretasted to become a tropcial storm Sunday night.

92E forms

Another area of disturbed weather (92E) has formed near the coast of Mexico. Some additional development is possible, bu the system is expected two move over cooler water.

Intresting Statistics

Year	E storm	F storm
1990	June 26	July 6
1991	July 15	July 29
1992 (most active year on record)	June 22	June 22
1993	July 15	August 7
1994	July 16	July 19
1995	August 1	August 7
1996	August 30	September 10
1997	July 12	July 14
1998	July 29	August 6
1999	August 6	August 17
2000	July 16	August 3
2001	July 20	August 6
2002	July 23	August 21
2003	July 10	July 17
2004	August 19	August 23
2005	July 18	August 9
2006	July 21	July 31
2007	Jul 31	August 7
2008	July 16	July 24
2009	July 29	August 3
2010	August 10	??

HTML Tables

The table above shows the formation of each particular storm. This years stats are in italics, with records in bold. This table includes storms since 1990 only.

Using the static maps you might be asking "We are not that behind at all". But remember that we have had only one named storm since July 1. It should also been noted that the GFS predicts a TD in about six days.

This images above shows the map of all storms this year. The tracks itself is normal for a La Nina year. The activity itself is what makes this season behind.

A year that has fallen behind, another area of intrest dies

This year sure  has fallen behind. It is truing into a Bust. I have never seen this many invests not develop, and the MJO has flipped so it is unlikely we will see anymore cyclones for a while. It could set the record for the latest "F" storm if we get no activity be early September. Even if  were are/were in an El Nino, the shear is prevent anything from developing. A this right, we might have the last active season on record. We are SEVEN DAYS from the peak. In our last La Nina (2008) we were up to "J" at this put. We were up to "G" the year before that. In a very strong La Nina in 2005, we were up to "I" at this time. In a moderate El Nina in 2003 we were up to "I". So were a two storms behind the La Nina average, and it is unlikely that we will get any activity for a few weeks. 2008 was up to "M" at that time and 2005 was up to "J". 2003 was up to "L" as well.  Or could the shear relax and make a late-season run. But in recent years September has been inactive, save 2005. So the more you look at it appears more and more likely that we will have a year below our prediction of 12-6-4. In addition, a La Nina has been confirmed

The area of interest that has been watched for a few days now has dissipated. Both tracking service agencies predict nothing. However, a tropcial wave did bring some light rain to Central America last night, but has dissipated since then.

Another area formes

Another area forms far from the Mexican coast. However, strong wind shear will inhibit development. The next name on the list is Frank.  However, THIS SEASON IS A BUST.

Area of intrest goes poof

All of the convection left has dissipated and thus no tropical cyclones are expected at this time.

90E dies, 92E could form in a few days

Invest 90E has dissipated due to cooler waters. It should also be noted that there is another area of interest out in the middle of ocean. Strong upper-level winds will likely inhibit development, but the system could become 92E soon.

90E near the Mexican coast

90E is currently near the coast of Mexico. However, this system is disorganized and significant development is not expected. Heavy rain is possible (up to 4 inches) along the coast but expect light winds. Waves up to 15 ft are possible as well.

92C dead, Offical mid-eason forcast

Invest 92C dead at last. It may rest in peace. Now, here comes the official season forecast for the Pacific. Early this year in April i predicted 19 named storms(CPAC included) 11 hurricanes, and 8 major hurricanes. However, in June the prediction has been lowered to 15-7-3. Today, I have set the prediction to 12-6-4. However, it takes only one hurricane to make it a band season as Agatha did in May for Guatemala. I give a 28% chance of a landfalling hurricane in Baja (average is 30%) with a 40% (average) chance of a landfalling hurricane in Mainland Mexico (excluding the Atlantic).

90E and ex-Dainmu could threaten California , El Nino?

Invest 90E appears to be fading, but is expected to turn Northeast and possibly bring some showers, but no significant rainfall is expected. The leftovers of Dainmu could also bring some rain and intensify the monsoon, not to mention the MJO moving over the area into the Atlantic

I personally think there is still El Nino. While the SST's in the Pacific are below normal, the shear levels in the tropcial Atlantic suggest otherwise. The amounts of shear is typical of a moderate El Nino. Average them to out we are in a weak El Nino

90E near Soccoro Island

Invest 90E has changed little in modernization. The systme is currently near Socorro Island. Up to 3 inches of rain and 30 mph winds are possible. However, the main threat will be the waves. Up to 25 foot waves are possible. Stay out of the water PLEASE.

90E is back, could we have 92E soon, Cookie cutter basin?

Invest 90E has came back once again. Some development is possible, but is no threat to land. 92C has changed little in organization, and no additional development is expected. There is another area of interest south of the Mexican coast, but strong wind shear is expected to prevent further development.

The EPAC has recently been reffered to as the "cookie curter basin". However, IMO they were several interesting storms since 2005. 2005 had Kenneth 2006 had Bud, Daniel, Ioke, John. Kristy, Lane, Sergio 2007 had Flossie 2008 had Boris, Hernan, Norbert. 2009 had Andres, Carlos, Felicia, Guillermo, Jimena, Rick, Neki. 2010 had Agatha, and Celia. Others disagree, saying that 87% of the storms since 2005 are boring. It shows that some people hate it and some people like it.

91E back over water, 92E and 93E could form in a few days

91E has moved back over water, but conditions are expected to become less favorable for further development. The rains should diminish over Mexico during the next few days. They are two other areas to watch. One is near Central America, However, significant development is not expected, but we could see this become 92/93E. Rain chances form in Coast Rica should decrease over the next few days. Waves action should decrease gradually. Another area is located far out so see. Surface pressure are low, but strong wind shear will likely prevent significant development.

91E moves inland unexepcty but heavy rains are probable, guess whos back

91E has moved inland somehow highly unexpectedly. however, Heavy rains up to 15 inches in the high terrain can cause deadly flooding and mudslides with severe damage. Sorry, ti the wrong time for you vacation. Up to $30 million dollars in damage is possible. There rain could persist for a while at least thorough Sunday night.

The motion of 91E was highly unexpected. It was expected to move NW and parallel the coast, so we thought high waves would be the threat. However, it unexpectedly moved NE and moved inland. This shows how little we know about tropical cyclones. It went off or on the extreme edge of the forecast cone. Too bad the NHC did not declare it a TD.

Guess whos back? 92C for the fifth time. However, additional development is not anticipated.

91E almost a TD, 92C is back

91E is getting better organized, and is almost a TD. Additional development is possible and a tropical depression will likely form within the next 24 to 36 hours. Also, 92c is back on the CPHC page, but additional development is not anticipated.

91E forms

Just when one area of interest dies, another one is born. 99E has formed! Some gradual development is possible over the next few days. Once again, waves are issue up the Mexican Rivera, but due to westerly path of the system waves will not be as dangerous than 90E or Estelle.

Estlle has died, 90E going poof

Tropical Depression Estele has dissipated. In addition, 90E has became disorganized. No Tropical cyclones are expected during the two days.