A second AOI of 2011 has formed. Not expected to do much , but it could become 90E. However, this is a good sign that Hurricane Season is starting. MJO forecast show MJO to become negative around May 5 and remain that way till May 20. Then, it will be neutral or positive through the remainder of May and into early June.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Monday, April 18, 2011
Countdown to hurricane season begins
We are one getting closer to hurricane season every week. As of this afternoon, we are 26 days, 14 hours, and 46 minutes away from the start of the 2011 PHS. Th end of the season lasts 200 days, so we are 226 days, 14 hours, and 46 minuets away from hurricane season as well.
Now, we quote Dr. Steve Lyons with some EPAC climatology
"May 15th, is the start of the 2009 East Pacific hurricane season, about 2 weeks earlier than the Atlantic Basin hurricane season begins (June 1). Both end November 30th. These dates have been set to encapsulate well over 90% of tropical cyclones that form in each basin. On rare occasions we find development before each season "officially" begins and/or after the season "officially" ends. The last time we had an early start to the East Pacific hurricane season was in 1996 when a tropical depression formed on May 13th, two days before the official start dated; the following day it became the first tropical storm that year, and to this day remains nameless, the second tropical storm to form that year was named "Alma." It turns out that on-average the East Pacific is more active than the Atlantic Basin, and this is the case in most but not all years (2005 being the clearest recent example). Since the satellite era began in 1965 tropical cyclone annual averages are 16 tropical storms, 8 of those becoming hurricanes. Of particular interest is the fact that prior to being able to see tropical cyclones in this area of the world with weather satellites, many tropical cyclones were missed as this is not a typical high ship traffic area, hence weather reports from them have been historically sparse.
Tropical cyclone averages were 8 named storms, 3 of those becoming hurricanes in our historical record from 1949-1964. Yes, more than half of all tropical storms and two-thirds of hurricanes went undetected before the satellite era and very likely many ships got into much rougher weather than they were expecting! Prior to the satellite era that began around the time I was in 6th grade (1965), meteorologists had thought the Atlantic Basin was a far more active tropical cyclone region compared to the East Pacific. It is interesting how wrong we can be when we make assumptions without accurate information!
A large majority of tropical cyclone tracks are toward west of west-northwest and out to sea away from land. However each year is unique, some years have many more tracks that turn north and/or northeast toward land than other years. These track differences are related to changes in steering from one year to the next. El Nino years are more likely to see landfalls in Mexico and remnant tropical cyclones affecting California and the southwest U.S. Locations for formation of tropical cyclones in the East Pacific are the narrowest in the world, with a local maximum located near 15N latitude, 110W longitude.
The two most common U.S. impacts from East Pacific tropical cyclones are 1) high surf in Southern California from distant tropical storms and hurricanes and 2) flooding rains in the U.S. southwest that can at times spread across California and well into the central U.S. Surf can exceed twenty feet on south facing beaches of Southern California from swells coming from hurricanes offshore from Mexico. One year those swells were so high, some waves broke over the top of the Huntington Beach pier, the long-shore currents in the water were two to four miles per hour toward the north, and rip currents drown many beach goers. Flood disasters from remnants of tropical cyclones in California, Arizona, New Mexico and for that matter the entire southwest U.S. are too numerous to list. In 1939, one hurricane did not weaken over the cool California current as it headed toward that state. It made landfall near Long Beach and brought damaging tropical storm force winds, high surf and flooding rains. In 1972, Hurricane Hyacinth moved toward Southern California and although it weakened it struck San Diego as a tropical depression. So no, it is not impossible for California to be struck by a tropical storm, but it is rare, and far less rare for remnants of tropical cyclones to drift over Southern California and occasionally bring flooding rains in months that typically see no rain! I remember dancing in the street in heavy rains in the late summer of 1967 as hurricane "Katrina" moved up the Gulf of California and brought rains to San Diego and beyond. Yes, that was an interesting year with Hippies, Flower Children, motorcycle gangs and tropical cyclone remnants leaving their marks on my home state.
So before you head on that vacation to Baja, Mexico or Central America, check with The Weather Channel for any tropical cyclone threats that might affect you vacation destination. Oh and those of you in Southern California, you might win a party bet with that 1939 Long Beach landfall, just remember you are routinely vulnerable at the beach in high surf that can come from distant or not so distant East Pacific hurricanes.
"
The GFS storm we mentioned last week is turning into a modelstorm. Still, not bad for April.
Now, we quote Dr. Steve Lyons with some EPAC climatology
"May 15th, is the start of the 2009 East Pacific hurricane season, about 2 weeks earlier than the Atlantic Basin hurricane season begins (June 1). Both end November 30th. These dates have been set to encapsulate well over 90% of tropical cyclones that form in each basin. On rare occasions we find development before each season "officially" begins and/or after the season "officially" ends. The last time we had an early start to the East Pacific hurricane season was in 1996 when a tropical depression formed on May 13th, two days before the official start dated; the following day it became the first tropical storm that year, and to this day remains nameless, the second tropical storm to form that year was named "Alma." It turns out that on-average the East Pacific is more active than the Atlantic Basin, and this is the case in most but not all years (2005 being the clearest recent example). Since the satellite era began in 1965 tropical cyclone annual averages are 16 tropical storms, 8 of those becoming hurricanes. Of particular interest is the fact that prior to being able to see tropical cyclones in this area of the world with weather satellites, many tropical cyclones were missed as this is not a typical high ship traffic area, hence weather reports from them have been historically sparse.
Tropical cyclone averages were 8 named storms, 3 of those becoming hurricanes in our historical record from 1949-1964. Yes, more than half of all tropical storms and two-thirds of hurricanes went undetected before the satellite era and very likely many ships got into much rougher weather than they were expecting! Prior to the satellite era that began around the time I was in 6th grade (1965), meteorologists had thought the Atlantic Basin was a far more active tropical cyclone region compared to the East Pacific. It is interesting how wrong we can be when we make assumptions without accurate information!
| AVERAGES | TROPICAL STORMS | HURRICANES |
| 1949-1964 | 8 | 3 |
A large majority of tropical cyclone tracks are toward west of west-northwest and out to sea away from land. However each year is unique, some years have many more tracks that turn north and/or northeast toward land than other years. These track differences are related to changes in steering from one year to the next. El Nino years are more likely to see landfalls in Mexico and remnant tropical cyclones affecting California and the southwest U.S. Locations for formation of tropical cyclones in the East Pacific are the narrowest in the world, with a local maximum located near 15N latitude, 110W longitude.
The two most common U.S. impacts from East Pacific tropical cyclones are 1) high surf in Southern California from distant tropical storms and hurricanes and 2) flooding rains in the U.S. southwest that can at times spread across California and well into the central U.S. Surf can exceed twenty feet on south facing beaches of Southern California from swells coming from hurricanes offshore from Mexico. One year those swells were so high, some waves broke over the top of the Huntington Beach pier, the long-shore currents in the water were two to four miles per hour toward the north, and rip currents drown many beach goers. Flood disasters from remnants of tropical cyclones in California, Arizona, New Mexico and for that matter the entire southwest U.S. are too numerous to list. In 1939, one hurricane did not weaken over the cool California current as it headed toward that state. It made landfall near Long Beach and brought damaging tropical storm force winds, high surf and flooding rains. In 1972, Hurricane Hyacinth moved toward Southern California and although it weakened it struck San Diego as a tropical depression. So no, it is not impossible for California to be struck by a tropical storm, but it is rare, and far less rare for remnants of tropical cyclones to drift over Southern California and occasionally bring flooding rains in months that typically see no rain! I remember dancing in the street in heavy rains in the late summer of 1967 as hurricane "Katrina" moved up the Gulf of California and brought rains to San Diego and beyond. Yes, that was an interesting year with Hippies, Flower Children, motorcycle gangs and tropical cyclone remnants leaving their marks on my home state.
So before you head on that vacation to Baja, Mexico or Central America, check with The Weather Channel for any tropical cyclone threats that might affect you vacation destination. Oh and those of you in Southern California, you might win a party bet with that 1939 Long Beach landfall, just remember you are routinely vulnerable at the beach in high surf that can come from distant or not so distant East Pacific hurricanes.
"
The GFS storm we mentioned last week is turning into a modelstorm. Still, not bad for April.
Friday, April 15, 2011
GFS predicts EPAC storms in a few days,
Today is April 15, one moth away from the start of Hurricane season! Yet, we already have something to talk about. The storm (see header) looks a bit disorganized, and is located at 5N put for an April system, it is not bad, not bad at all. The question is will it be one of those GFS "model storms" that do not do anything at all? Only time will tell, but it is something interesting to follow at least.
Monday, April 11, 2011
How to prepare for the 2011 PHS
Note: Review these tips on Hurricane Week (May 15-21)
Now, we'll announce the dates for hurricane preparedness week
May 15-Introduction. What is the EPAC all about? How to read a surface chart?
May 16-Hurricane Preparedness
May 17-Hurricane Preparedness, cont
May 18-Hurricane Forecast
May 19-Hurricane Names and other data sources
May 20-Hurricane Damage
May 21-Hurricane History
Note:these dates are subject to change
- Keep a Hurricane Preparedness Kit packed (see "Things You'll Need"). This assures that you will lessen the amount of things you'll have to do when the time comes. Also, items such as batteries are easier to find when everyone else isn't panicking. As a bonus, if any other event, such as a fire occurs, you'll be prepared for that as well.
- Create a "take box". The take box should have everything you need to reconstruct your life in the event you evacuate and everything is lost. Passports; birth, wedding, adoption, divorce, and armed service separation certificates; copies of insurance policies; mortgage information; house and car title; large purchase receipts. You get the idea. If you have a scanner, save yourself space and heartbreak by scanning family albums and images of other keepsakes, burn those to CD and keep a copy in your take box, or make a copy of all your pictures, videos, music and documents on a external hard drive that you can keep in your take box. But remember that CD's can malfunction. Make sure you take along the original documents, if possible, make copies of them. The CD is just for convenience when shown to officials.
- Discuss and practice a disaster plan with your family. Make sure everyone in the family knows who to contact (and how to contact them) as an out of area contact. Make sure kids know enough information so that an adult can get in touch with that person should sudden evacuation be necessary when you aren't near them. Practice this, and make other back up plans. This can be as involved as you like, but keep in mind the ages and temperaments of individuals to assure everything runs smoothly in the event you have to evacuate immediately.
- Learn how to turn off the gas and power to your home and make sure that all tools needed for the job are easily accessible. If you're not sure, speak with the gas or electric company for instructions. You don't want to be running around at the last minute trying to figure out how to do these things.
- Ensure that insurance matters are kept up to date. Hurricane season is not the time to buy flood insurance since it's either unavailable or very very very very very very very expensive. Note: most regular home insurance does not include flood coverage in the policy, so you'll have to buy this separately.
- Keep in touch with friends and family that are out of the potential disaster area, and make arrangements to stay with them, in case you have to evacuate.
- Have someone remove dead trees and dead tree limbs and evaluate the health of any trees near enough to fall on your (or your neighbor's) house.
- Check this blog regularly. Very important information. If you can't check one fo th elink listed blew the titles. Chances are that this blog will give you the info you need.
Now, we'll announce the dates for hurricane preparedness week
May 15-Introduction. What is the EPAC all about? How to read a surface chart?
May 16-Hurricane Preparedness
May 17-Hurricane Preparedness, cont
May 18-Hurricane Forecast
May 19-Hurricane Names and other data sources
May 20-Hurricane Damage
May 21-Hurricane History
Note:these dates are subject to change
Saturday, April 2, 2011
2011 Predictions
Its April, in a season under the name Spring. A month past a hurricane conference, which confirmed that Agatha nor Frank got retired. We are still in off-season, but we are getting there, getting close to hurricane week May 15-21.
It is time for our predictions. The La Nina that lead to the least active since since 1977 is gone at last. a neutral should appear by May, and an El Nino by October. Typically, under neutral conditions, we get 14-16 named storms. Waters are much warmer than last year. However, the pressure forecast look fairly balancedm and since hurricanes help balance out the pressures, they would be less hurricanes and the pressure over the tropcial Pacific. There is more ITCZ convection than normal this year, so that is a sign towards more activity. Our pre-season forecast goes for 15-4-3.
The highest risk is the Mexican coast. I predict a lot of storms will form near the coast. In June and July, it will be boring. Form-intensify-die. In August, you will start to see a few major hurricanes, as upper level winds weaken over the tropical pacific. By mdi-August storms will start to threaten Mexican Riviera which extends from Acapulco to La Paz, but landfalls will be rare. By late August, troughs will re-curve storms toward Mexico, and a landfalling Baja hurricane is likely during late August/early September. September will be quiet with only two storms expected, despite one forecasted to make landfall.
October becomes a dangerous moth. Three quick storms will from around Ocotber 7-15, including one major hurricane than re-curves and strikes Mexico. In all, the ACE will be near-normal, in the 83-92 range.
BTW, a Baja California weather center played an April Fools joke. They wrote "A freak tropical storm is working its way up the Pacific side of the Baja peninsula and is forecast to make landfall somewhere along the Southern California coast."- sourced from Bajainsider.com
It is time for our predictions. The La Nina that lead to the least active since since 1977 is gone at last. a neutral should appear by May, and an El Nino by October. Typically, under neutral conditions, we get 14-16 named storms. Waters are much warmer than last year. However, the pressure forecast look fairly balancedm and since hurricanes help balance out the pressures, they would be less hurricanes and the pressure over the tropcial Pacific. There is more ITCZ convection than normal this year, so that is a sign towards more activity. Our pre-season forecast goes for 15-4-3.
The highest risk is the Mexican coast. I predict a lot of storms will form near the coast. In June and July, it will be boring. Form-intensify-die. In August, you will start to see a few major hurricanes, as upper level winds weaken over the tropical pacific. By mdi-August storms will start to threaten Mexican Riviera which extends from Acapulco to La Paz, but landfalls will be rare. By late August, troughs will re-curve storms toward Mexico, and a landfalling Baja hurricane is likely during late August/early September. September will be quiet with only two storms expected, despite one forecasted to make landfall.
October becomes a dangerous moth. Three quick storms will from around Ocotber 7-15, including one major hurricane than re-curves and strikes Mexico. In all, the ACE will be near-normal, in the 83-92 range.
BTW, a Baja California weather center played an April Fools joke. They wrote "A freak tropical storm is working its way up the Pacific side of the Baja peninsula and is forecast to make landfall somewhere along the Southern California coast."- sourced from Bajainsider.com
Closing 2010 recap
Finishing off 2010, the strangest thing happened. It's December 29, hurricane season is over, its the middle of winter for gods sake. In an area that has been devoid of activity through the year. Yet, 92C emerges into the EPAC and develops into Tropical storm Omkea. however, it dies the next day, but thats sure some surprise.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
PDO value
Pacific Decade Oscillation values form the period 993-1996. Data from McDonald 2005.
993 0.610972 994 0.398854 995 -0.90431 996 -0.084949 997 0.143107 998 -0.302822 999 0.487957 1000 0.78263 1001 0.096265 1002 -1.182662 1003 -1.08856 1004 -0.721918 1005 -1.811442 1006 -1.636119 1007 -1.557574 1008 -1.278072 1009 -0.634053 1010 -0.420506 1011 -0.595148 1012 -0.615128 1013 -1.404196 1014 -0.876231 1015 -0.766742 1016 -0.874224 1017 -0.672612 1018 -0.29844 1019 -1.014836 1020 -0.908856 1021 -0.564654 1022 -0.697949 1023 -0.472793 1024 -1.075726 1025 -1.406949 1026 -1.743798 1027 -1.692331 1028 -1.41769 1029 -1.055025 1030 -0.660392 1031 -1.164732 1032 -1.8232 1033 -1.730899 1034 -1.553514 1035 -1.715771 1036 -1.389029 1037 -1.261503 1038 -1.603696 1039 -1.711388 1040 -1.331025 1041 -1.259484 1042 -1.572729 1043 -2.098637 1044 -2.032666 1045 -1.488919 1046 -0.680744 1047 -1.964579 1048 -1.972432 1049 -1.24561 1050 -0.63808 1051 -0.353681 1052 -0.73183 1053 -1.034759 1054 -1.338263 1055 -1.275902 1056 -1.18306 1057 -0.68862 1058 -1.151295 1059 -1.589114 1060 -1.348268 1061 -0.721187 1062 -1.513371 1063 -1.328924 1064 -0.963789 1065 -1.407793 1066 -1.512335 1067 -1.70579 1068 -1.704043 1069 -1.356449 1070 -1.005761 1071 -0.78434 1072 -1.257634 1073 -1.318024 1074 -1.87775 1075 -0.953864 1076 -0.98513 1077 -0.860277 1078 -0.609671 1079 -0.769308 1080 -0.31998 1081 -0.06767 1082 -0.180393 1083 -0.568871 1084 0.176556 1085 0.54737 1086 -0.125704 1087 -0.696355 1088 -0.323303 1089 -0.868453 1090 -0.836803 1091 -0.599694 1092 -0.015811 1093 -1.122061 1094 -1.381153 1095 -1.27344 1096 -0.590176 1097 -0.183164 1098 -0.655316 1099 -0.892356 1100 -0.042688 1101 -0.778147 1102 -1.166141 1103 -1.277443 1104 -0.900226 1105 -0.595082 1106 -0.554687 1107 -0.229431 1108 -0.592911 1109 -0.304366 1110 -0.348862 1111 -0.280658 1112 -0.5546 1113 -1.584251 1114 -1.695654 1115 -0.833832 1116 -0.810894 1117 -0.399839 1118 -0.190328 1119 -0.38025 1120 -1.053086 1121 -2.063962 1122 -0.995217 1123 -0.97924 1124 -0.59804 1125 -1.184244 1126 -2.021974 1127 -2.075859 1128 -1.62641 1129 -1.078963 1130 -0.975118 1131 -1.082897 1132 -1.646889 1133 -1.990093 1134 -2.242722 1135 -1.906085 1136 -1.626903 1137 -1.333253 1138 -1.318408 1139 -0.847591 1140 -0.562991 1141 -0.671182 1142 -1.446561 1143 -1.43945 1144 -1.133246 1145 -0.603797 1146 -1.372836 1147 -1.509173 1148 -0.982903 1149 -1.003451 1150 -1.263269 1151 -1.420654 1152 -1.000732 1153 -1.047644 1154 -1.411954 1155 -0.611392 1156 -1.144599 1157 -1.065554 1158 -1.299744 1159 -0.616306 1160 -0.375592 1161 -0.009208 1162 0.054026 1163 0.08911 1164 -0.071552 1165 0.39434 1166 0.517937 1167 0.670961 1168 0.070316 1169 -0.11498 1170 -0.561616 1171 -0.472572 1172 0.007436 1173 0.023801 1174 -0.496742 1175 -0.354577 1176 -0.388739 1177 -0.107419 1178 -0.408236 1179 -1.091588 1180 -0.598183 1181 -0.015963 1182 -0.747687 1183 -0.568039 1184 -0.001084 1185 -0.112472 1186 -0.585591 1187 -0.535452 1188 -0.727372 1189 -0.8327 1190 -0.776688 1191 -0.36077 1192 -0.751463 1193 -0.273914 1194 -0.16657 1195 -0.02139 1196 -0.588177 1197 -0.555676 1198 -0.306244 1199 -0.830332 1200 -0.293892 1201 -0.41836 1202 -0.755466 1203 -0.578547 1204 0.02514 1205 0.364368 1206 0.115774 1207 -0.048756 1208 -0.346811 1209 0.361734 1210 0.541442 1211 0.340128 1212 0.206612 1213 -0.242467 1214 -0.953192 1215 -1.283182 1216 -0.994999 1217 -0.999316 1218 -1.321135 1219 -1.075501 1220 0.019859 1221 -0.503318 1222 -0.296648 1223 -0.768875 1224 -0.834684 1225 -0.970576 1226 -1.35582 1227 -2.342246 1228 -0.875747 1229 -1.080037 1230 -1.437344 1231 -0.601289 1232 -0.727147 1233 -0.607046 1234 -0.625688 1235 -0.593154 1236 -1.149176 1237 -0.759566 1238 0.069188 1239 0.48276 1240 0.331269 1241 0.626653 1242 0.238832 1243 -0.15804 1244 -0.623536 1245 -0.779091 1246 -0.595158 1247 -0.376275 1248 0.145211 1249 0.685544 1250 0.218477 1251 -0.785764 1252 -0.541929 1253 0.087606 1254 -0.585612 1255 -0.750871 1256 -0.470351 1257 -0.148001 1258 -0.535967 1259 -0.196543 1260 0.037565 1261 0.394084 1262 -0.191711 1263 -1.099801 1264 -0.843149 1265 -1.226955 1266 -0.928631 1267 -0.62874 1268 -0.109501 1269 0.018945 1270 0.16762 1271 0.432772 1272 0.313552 1273 0.365109 1274 0.129411 1275 0.498041 1276 -0.746164 1277 -0.935273 1278 -0.454016 1279 -0.406842 1280 -0.740792 1281 -0.341408 1282 0.702109 1283 0.912973 1284 -0.463374 1285 -1.732417 1286 -1.517522 1287 -1.32636 1288 -1.915036 1289 -1.036383 1290 -0.835435 1291 -1.054331 1292 -1.030097 1293 -1.466418 1294 -1.014433 1295 -1.070027 1296 -2.442642 1297 -1.960667 1298 -1.548417 1299 -1.355037 1300 -1.470884 1301 -0.495974 1302 -1.270152 1303 -0.68407 1304 -0.453701 1305 -0.565427 1306 0.081823 1307 -0.903918 1308 -1.23521 1309 -1.154312 1310 -0.886475 1311 -0.286229 1312 -0.022032 1313 0.648643 1314 0.389173 1315 0.153505 1316 0.066651 1317 0.86228 1318 0.448449 1319 1.014303 1320 1.225745 1321 1.17301 1322 0.090789 1323 -0.092578 1324 -0.02955 1325 -0.225046 1326 -0.696518 1327 -0.592719 1328 -0.301297 1329 -1.163605 1330 0.048851 1331 0.398527 1332 0.864271 1333 0.73815 1334 0.736305 1335 -0.43149 1336 -0.526118 1337 -0.453392 1338 -1.173573 1339 -1.361497 1340 -0.529436 1341 -0.410623 1342 0.075033 1343 0.584348 1344 0.980993 1345 1.125168 1346 1.121896 1347 0.514088 1348 0.290645 1349 0.48194 1350 0.33842 1351 -0.234185 1352 -0.315786 1353 0.011068 1354 -0.001276 1355 -0.069913 1356 0.271634 1357 0.038353 1358 -0.622984 1359 0.215697 1360 0.106801 1361 -0.109139 1362 -0.227057 1363 0.498763 1364 0.146521 1365 0.215873 1366 0.44097 1367 0.343063 1368 1.210888 1369 1.360356 1370 1.188877 1371 0.381211 1372 1.073588 1373 1.231962 1374 0.775542 1375 0.485715 1376 -0.005323 1377 -0.530923 1378 -0.008682 1379 -1.447047 1380 -0.923839 1381 0.232449 1382 0.146879 1383 0.643915 1384 -0.355366 1385 -0.786725 1386 -0.429154 1387 -0.449626 1388 -0.286873 1389 -0.652566 1390 -0.51335 1391 -0.694846 1392 -0.253799 1393 0.423109 1394 0.105586 1395 0.011563 1396 -0.708007 1397 -0.619218 1398 -0.736538 1399 -0.139301 1400 0.160388 1401 0.199035 1402 -0.231702 1403 -0.277435 1404 0.183528 1405 -0.391875 1406 -0.234777 1407 -0.600903 1408 -0.502344 1409 -0.767239 1410 -0.812857 1411 -1.259003 1412 -0.616641 1413 -1.858224 1414 -1.796555 1415 -1.104645 1416 -0.969762 1417 -0.325691 1418 -0.276241 1419 -0.50692 1420 0.32884 1421 -0.217864 1422 -0.721131 1423 -0.124767 1424 -0.02346 1425 -0.318207 1426 -0.651339 1427 -0.386498 1428 0.325286 1429 -0.056451 1430 -0.522373 1431 -0.029831 1432 0.229296 1433 0.483749 1434 0.166761 1435 -0.010852 1436 0.073835 1437 0.268476 1438 0.052154 1439 -0.032177 1440 -0.183171 1441 0.550548 1442 0.599248 1443 0.097167 1444 -0.521206 1445 -0.042516 1446 -0.073117 1447 -0.163041 1448 0.165561 1449 -0.040434 1450 -0.335187 1451 -0.237963 1452 -0.836295 1453 0.006911 1454 0.261774 1455 0.718525 1456 0.580117 1457 -0.011794 1458 0.654666 1459 0.842696 1460 -0.002527 1461 0.456873 1462 1.129018 1463 1.605103 1464 0.344982 1465 0.190076 1466 0.929238 1467 2.139513 1468 0.814102 1469 1.152639 1470 1.185804 1471 1.181171 1472 1.626164 1473 0.827436 1474 0.755216 1475 0.693094 1476 0.57276 1477 0.91391 1478 1.520277 1479 0.825218 1480 0.661633 1481 1.449893 1482 1.69329 1483 1.545744 1484 1.519372 1485 1.327506 1486 0.990543 1487 0.71146 1488 1.405382 1489 2.124125 1490 0.976058 1491 0.267228 1492 -0.393873 1493 -0.687513 1494 -0.245825 1495 0.628098 1496 0.45645 1497 -0.81464 1498 0.018049 1499 1.131384 1500 0.404067 1501 0.381111 1502 0.059652 1503 0.879983 1504 0.649254 1505 0.080995 1506 -0.138661 1507 0.024617 1508 0.040646 1509 0.999553 1510 0.957963 1511 0.511068 1512 0.599314 1513 0.585284 1514 0.620893 1515 0.789714 1516 1.080725 1517 1.570804 1518 0.484588 1519 0.23149 1520 -0.083166 1521 -1.112665 1522 -0.232256 1523 -0.101407 1524 0.312418 1525 0.154716 1526 0.663851 1527 0.923075 1528 1.006438 1529 0.482802 1530 0.801262 1531 0.829609 1532 0.91638 1533 0.774917 1534 1.308491 1535 1.575017 1536 1.264737 1537 1.271726 1538 1.170126 1539 1.09405 1540 1.798117 1541 0.69873 1542 0.185965 1543 0.705668 1544 0.339698 1545 0.652508 1546 1.168751 1547 0.529866 1548 0.214871 1549 0.492315 1550 1.069851 1551 1.724084 1552 1.676379 1553 1.102262 1554 1.396898 1555 0.933665 1556 1.662383 1557 1.930751 1558 2.280423 1559 0.834958 1560 1.056728 1561 1.021918 1562 1.344869 1563 0.949415 1564 1.156426 1565 1.444223 1566 0.837973 1567 1.580616 1568 1.815627 1569 1.707907 1570 1.049179 1571 -0.147945 1572 -1.007551 1573 -0.006645 1574 -0.302974 1575 -0.023413 1576 0.411687 1577 0.646621 1578 0.774942 1579 0.275617 1580 -0.122376 1581 0.548694 1582 0.735238 1583 0.515207 1584 -0.106949 1585 -1.361453 1586 -0.398009 1587 0.017147 1588 -0.287786 1589 1.031045 1590 -0.16732 1591 -0.238208 1592 0.250067 1593 0.825646 1594 0.88766 1595 0.684766 1596 0.721609 1597 -0.222325 1598 0.290258 1599 0.681911 1600 0.751776 1601 0.083214 1602 0.10056 1603 -0.234864 1604 0.262864 1605 0.849718 1606 0.436897 1607 -0.259139 1608 -0.165694 1609 0.302042 1610 0.673774 1611 0.598672 1612 0.20541 1613 -1.362639 1614 -0.411573 1615 0.031596 1616 0.111647 1617 0.322714 1618 0.868994 1619 -0.013989 1620 -0.112718 1621 -0.073803 1622 -0.217472 1623 -0.030238 1624 -0.539222 1625 -0.310044 1626 -0.657259 1627 -0.008733 1628 -0.070805 1629 0.195911 1630 0.305666 1631 -0.500961 1632 -0.554729 1633 -1.274516 1634 -1.206673 1635 0.092216 1636 -0.202549 1637 -0.023532 1638 -0.278062 1639 0.374695 1640 0.06171 1641 0.130005 1642 0.009786 1643 -0.401659 1644 -0.331491 1645 0.230724 1646 0.435129 1647 0.191984 1648 -0.270052 1649 -0.006447 1650 -0.160589 1651 0.495954 1652 -0.176603 1653 -0.453989 1654 -1.785658 1655 -1.251507 1656 -0.479212 1657 0.195077 1658 0.264941 1659 0.170791 1660 0.109458 1661 0.344736 1662 0.198788 1663 -0.402643 1664 -0.552508 1665 -0.572796 1666 -1.017732 1667 -0.854293 1668 -0.902041 1669 -1.1404 1670 -1.483805 1671 -0.435451 1672 -0.846026 1673 -0.624866 1674 0.044525 1675 -0.942151 1676 -1.129961 1677 -0.445025 1678 -0.184142 1679 -0.577237 1680 0.313476 1681 -0.537008 1682 0.434756 1683 0.860183 1684 0.622428 1685 0.302433 1686 0.103492 1687 0.025498 1688 0.475276 1689 0.849942 1690 0.277944 1691 -0.361731 1692 0.446038 1693 -0.375813 1694 0.093392 1695 0.411029 1696 -0.009447 1697 -0.761918 1698 -1.109654 1699 -0.442921 1700 -0.508167 1701 -0.459392 1702 -0.30044 1703 -1.098943 1704 -1.11103 1705 -0.092923 1706 -0.207877 1707 -0.99122 1708 -0.79085 1709 -0.947475 1710 -1.214577 1711 -1.08523 1712 -0.282613 1713 -0.666362 1714 -0.941362 1715 -0.706593 1716 -1.384563 1717 -0.80717 1718 -0.01194 1719 0.20497 1720 0.206402 1721 0.179836 1722 -0.611172 1723 -0.731583 1724 -0.412099 1725 0.097407 1726 1.077143 1727 0.650328 1728 -0.467444 1729 -0.621567 1730 -0.156354 1731 0.049617 1732 0.543229 1733 0.159322 1734 0.052126 1735 -0.821183 1736 -0.923233 1737 -0.442791 1738 -0.120693 1739 -0.253995 1740 -0.020835 1741 1.019209 1742 -0.061946 1743 0.354656 1744 0.853713 1745 1.078364 1746 1.394988 1747 2.831877 1748 1.459992 1749 0.42351 1750 0.199256 1751 0.69952 1752 -0.712596 1753 -1.381643 1754 -1.24915 1755 -0.143025 1756 0.234845 1757 0.64215 1758 -0.051235 1759 0.216878 1760 0.76153 1761 -0.098752 1762 -0.539926 1763 -0.600555 1764 -0.006212 1765 -0.647596 1766 -0.004559 1767 0.00365 1768 0.334786 1769 0.591422 1770 -0.146515 1771 0.926813 1772 1.158734 1773 0.186011 1774 0.710338 1775 1.053725 1776 0.713237 1777 -0.200015 1778 -0.368472 1779 -0.202707 1780 -0.148201 1781 -0.32036 1782 -1.359598 1783 -0.926229 1784 -0.204053 1785 -0.041777 1786 -0.338761 1787 -0.039623 1788 -0.382073 1789 -0.329045 1790 -0.413653 1791 -0.044144 1792 1.563367 1793 1.324541 1794 0.228215 1795 -0.116613 1796 0.114221 1797 -0.17068 1798 -0.124054 1799 0.527364 1800 0.612193 1801 -0.073362 1802 0.468676 1803 0.006852 1804 0.664918 1805 0.605156 1806 -0.045173 1807 -0.881666 1808 -0.415171 1809 -0.725609 1810 -1.103365 1811 -0.051995 1812 -0.3551 1813 -0.557216 1814 -0.235932 1815 0.115775 1816 -0.479874 1817 0.622076 1818 0.899885 1819 0.090143 1820 -0.16326 1821 0.523148 1822 -0.237079 1823 -1.818157 1824 -0.930514 1825 0.437268 1826 -0.44878 1827 -0.379013 1828 0.279389 1829 -0.741129 1830 -0.935043 1831 -0.08667 1832 1.108124 1833 1.68853 1834 0.668147 1835 0.703455 1836 -0.33061 1837 0.154837 1838 1.146977 1839 1.843768 1840 1.032351 1841 0.582955 1842 0.535094 1843 0.207931 1844 0.292297 1845 -0.139314 1846 0.478825 1847 0.952324 1848 0.564335 1849 1.152055 1850 1.539869 1851 0.747573 1852 1.252445 1853 1.774079 1854 1.012012 1855 0.76854 1856 0.164832 1857 -1.835267 1858 -0.445403 1859 0.643279 1860 0.419625 1861 0.632413 1862 0.741705 1863 0.471816 1864 -0.161951 1865 -0.114174 1866 0.61643 1867 0.847676 1868 1.836156 1869 1.940441 1870 1.355814 1871 1.032728 1872 0.750741 1873 0.507736 1874 1.251801 1875 0.798435 1876 0.846841 1877 0.345468 1878 -0.1924 1879 -0.902646 1880 -0.952197 1881 -1.097778 1882 -0.388679 1883 -0.812226 1884 0.084565 1885 -0.542718 1886 -0.510186 1887 -0.067269 1888 0.063205 1889 0.948075 1890 1.079399 1891 1.41614 1892 0.712042 1893 0.672577 1894 0.174958 1895 0.072643 1896 -0.000117 1897 -0.067704 1898 -0.051823 1899 -0.183915 1900 -1.143214 1901 -0.330813 1902 -0.613554 1903 -0.243075 1904 -0.728491 1905 0.124799 1906 0.89985 1907 1.217414 1908 0.343433 1909 0.593117 1910 1.023612 1911 1.239603 1912 0.539644 1913 0.260791 1914 0.741937 1915 1.383711 1916 0.904242 1917 0.500912 1918 1.612198 1919 1.462253 1920 1.790239 1921 1.760437 1922 1.780852 1923 0.535021 1924 0.431274 1925 0.265444 1926 0.74952 1927 1.157571 1928 0.689714 1929 0.121048 1930 -0.120168 1931 0.79548 1932 0.683273 1933 0.460702 1934 -0.706578 1935 -0.404145 1936 -0.05109 1937 0.266303 1938 1.118075 1939 0.616829 1940 0.7788 1941 1.126378 1942 0.148665 1943 0.545426 1944 -0.092565 1945 -0.456846 1946 -0.514702 1947 -0.408623 1948 -0.621761 1949 -0.229414 1950 -0.783732 1951 -0.952573 1952 -0.220682 1953 -0.969309 1954 -0.863335 1955 -0.63819 1956 -1.099465 1957 -0.613956 1958 0.116571 1959 -0.347128 1960 -0.631982 1961 -1.45981 1962 -1.482087 1963 -0.59125 1964 -0.751903 1965 -0.711183 1966 -0.689263 1967 -0.174068 1968 -0.279324 1969 0.737198 1970 0.620375 1971 -0.255987 1972 -0.087468 1973 -0.0651 1974 -0.404718 1975 0.218742 1976 -0.013717 1977 0.168996 1978 0.408265 1979 0.644076 1980 0.807031 1981 0.522987 1982 -0.032361 1983 0.982663 1984 0.356553 1985 0.463944 1986 0.356153 1987 0.113256 1988 0.506175 1989 0.617055 1990 -0.080409 1991 -0.244111 1992 0.628857 1993 1.150391 1994 0.293471 1995 0.427283 1996 0.138711
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Comapring this year with other years
| 1988 | 15 |
| 1989 | 17 |
| 1990 | 21 |
| 1991 | 14 |
| 1992 | 28 |
| 1993 | 15 |
| 1994 | 20 |
| 1995 | 10 |
| 1996 | 9 |
| 1997 | 19 |
| 1998 | 13 |
| 1999 | 9 |
| 2000 | 19 |
| 2001 | 15 |
| 2002 | 14 |
| 2003 | 16 |
| 2004 | 13 |
| 2005 | 15 |
| 2006 | 19 |
| 2007 | 11 |
| 2008 | 17 |
| 2009 | 20 |
| 2010 | 6 |
| Average | 14 |
96E and hurricane season outlook
96E has formed near Sinora today. Soem slow devlopment is posible and a tropical depression could form in abotu two days as it parrels the coast of Mexico. Heavy rains are possible as the system passes offshore. This system will likely strike Baja California in about three days.
This season appers to be ending at 6-3-2. However, the basin could become active once more in October. We say 8-4-3 when it is finshed.
This season appers to be ending at 6-3-2. However, the basin could become active once more in October. We say 8-4-3 when it is finshed.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Frnak pekaing in intesity
Hurricane Frank has peaked in intensity with wind of 90 mph. It is now down to 65 mph. Additional weakening is expected.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Hurricane Frank slightly stronger
Frank is slowly intensifying. Winds have been increased to 85 mph. However, further intensification...if any.. will be slight over the next 12 hours. A weakening trend is expected to begin as shear increases and Frank moves over cooler waters. However, the leftovers could move into Baja California in about a week. Some rain and tropical storm force winds are possible near Socorro Islands s this system make its closest approach to the island in a day or two.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Frank a hurricane at last
Frank is gradually intensifying an dis officially a hurricnae at last. some intensification is possible, and it could reach winds of 80 mph soon. IT is foretasted to peak as a 85 mph hurricane. It should be noted the Baja is in the cone of uncertainty now with heavy waves possible along the NW Mexico's coastline.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Frank not intesifing
Frank has became according to the NHC "becoming less organized". Winds are at 75 mph (65 really), and this system could become a hurricnae at any time if convection reorganizes. Frank is no longer expected to impact land.
Frank almost a hurrciane
Tropical Storm Frank is moving away from Mexico for now. However, it has became better organized. Winds have increased to 65 mph, 10 mph shy of hurricane intensity. Expect hurricane status soon with an outside chance of major hurricane status as shear decreases. Although the watches have been dropped, heavy rains and up to 15 feet waves is still possible. It is forecast to turn back to the north, and could strike Baja California in about five days.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Frank weakens, but expected to reintesify
Tropical Storm Frank has weakened today down to 50 mph. However, re-intensification is expected. It could become a hurricane by Wednesday.
Frank maintaing it's intesity
Tropical Storm Frank is maintaining it intensity due to some wind shear. The CDO has dissipated, but shear could decrease soon allowing for some additional intensification. It is expect to become a minimal hurricnae near Baja California. There is a lot of uncertainty in the storms track. the GDFL, HWERF, GFS, and the some of the minor ensemble models take this system very near or onshore Baja. Hopefully, Baja Insider (the hurricane Baja California agency) will give a good update today. Another are of disturbed weather is located near Frnak, but development of this system is not anticipated. In other news, the have fowered a hurricane potential impact scale towards Erick Blake according to the NHC webmaster.
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Update
| Year | E storm | F storm |
| 1990 | June 26 | July 6 |
| 1991 | July 15 | July 29 |
| 1992 (most active year on record) | June 22 | June 22 |
| 1993 | July 15 | August 7 |
| 1994 | July 16 | July 19 |
| 1995 | August 1 | August 7 |
| 1996 | August 30 | September 10 |
| 1997 | July 12 | July 14 |
| 1998 | July 29 | August 6 |
| 1999 | August 6 | August 17 |
| 2000 | July 16 | August 3 |
| 2001 | July 20 | August 6 |
| 2002 | July 23 | August 21 |
| 2003 | July 10 | July 17 |
| 2004 | August 19 | August 23 |
| 2005 | July 18 | August 9 |
| 2006 | July 21 | July 31 |
| 2007 | Jul 31 | August 7 |
| 2008 | July 16 | July 24 |
| 2009 | July 29 | August 3 |
| 2010 | August 10 | August 22 |
The table above shows the formation of each particular storm. This years stats are in italics, with records in bold. This table includes storms since 1990 only. On average, the E storms forms in July with the F in August.
Frank begining to rapidly intesify
Frank is beiging to itesfy very quickly, and coud reac hurricae intesity in about 24 hours. Watches and warnings remain in effect. Heavy rainfall up to 3 inches and gusty winds are execpted.
9-E now Tropcial Storm Frank
Breaking News:Tropcial Depression Nine-E now Tropical Storm Frank. The effects mentioned below are the same. This system is over 90 degree waters, and could strengthen rapidly.
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