Wednesday, August 5, 2009

What a difference 2 days can make

48 hours ago TD 8-E had just formed. Now Felicia is a 140 mph Cat 4 hurricane

Monday, August 3, 2009

Breaking News

7-e is Enquire and 8-E has formed

7_E is here, Lana done

2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 3
Location: 13.0°N 112.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb

Advisories for Lana have been dropped

Lana weakens

Lana is now a TD

99E

an are of low pressure 100 miles away from cobo remains disorganized. However, upper level winds are favorable for further development.

TD could be froming?

an area of low pressure located 700 miles from Cobo counties to organize and a Tropical depression could be forming. If this trend counties advisories will intalled later today.

Saturday, August 1, 2009

Update

An area of disturbed weather off the Mexician Coast is producing disorganized thunderstorms. However, some slow development is still possible. Regardless of development, heavy rain and flash flooding is possible over the Mexican Rivera this weekend.

An area to watch

An area of disturbed weather located about 100 miles away from Mexico has gotten all flared op this afternoon. some further development is possible as it parallels the coast, though it will likely to be slow. Regardless of development, heavy rain and flash flooding is possible over the Mexican Rivera this weekend.

Montoring two areas

An area of disturbed weather near the Central America coastline remains disorganized. Development of this system is unlikely.

A second area of disturbed weather is over the Mexican Mainland and the Gulf of California. It looks impressive this morning. However land interaction will likely inhibit development. Regardless of development heavy rainfall could lead to flash floods and lightning over Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, California, and Nevada this weekend.
Note: This image is not mine

Confusion with Lana

There seems to be some confusion over whether six-E became One-C. The rule is that they retain its number or and its name when it crosses in the CPHC area of responsibility. However, the system received a CPHC name because it was named there.

Friday, July 31, 2009

Tropical Storm Lana

Yesterday the NHC noted that there was a chance that a tropical depression was forming. At 8 AM the NHC began issuing advisories on Six-E. Six hours later it became Tropical Storm Lana. Lana currently has winds of 65 mph.. The NHC thinks that this is its peak, but I think it will become a 80 mph hurricane and reach the WPAC as a 25 mph TD.

Monday, July 20, 2009

2009 PHS

The 2009 Pacific hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season officially started on May 15 in the eastern Pacific, and on June 1 for the central Pacific, and will end on November 30, 2009. For the first time in ten years, no tropical depressions formed during the month of May. This inactivity continued into the early part of June and was the least active since 1994.[1] The first named storm of the season did not develop until June 21, marking the second latest start to a Pacific hurricane season since reliable records began.
Tropical Depression One-E

An area of disturbed weather persisted off the southwest Mexican coast on June 15.[5] It moved slowly west-northwestward, developing an area of low pressure as it became better organized.[6] The system continued to organize, and on June 17 the National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted the likelihood for tropical cyclogenesis, although at the time the circulation was not well-defined.[7] Subsequently it organized further,[8] and early on June 18, the NHC initiated advisories on the first tropical depression of the 2009 season about 370 miles (595 km) south-southwest of Mazatlán, Mexico.[9] Deep convection persisted near the southern portion of the depression; however, the northern portion of the depression was partially devoid of convective activity. A mid to upper-level trough situated over the Baja California Peninsula led to a northward movement of the depression.[8] The system remained disorganized most of its lifetime due to shear. One-E dissipated as it made landfall early on June 20.[10]

On June 19, 2.44 in (62 mm) of rain fell in Mazatlán, near where the remnants of the depression moved ashore.[11] High winds in Mazatlán knocked down several trees, cutting power to numerous residents. Heavy rains also triggered street flooding throughout the city.[12] Landslides along major roadways caused several accidents, one involving a bus that was damaged by rocks.[13]

Hurricane Andres

Andres originated from a broad area of disturbed weather associated with remnant of tropical depression One-E persisted off the southern coast of Mexico after Tropical Depression One-E formed, which generated shower and thunderstorm activity. At this time, the National Hurricane Center remarked upon the possibility for tropical cyclone formation.[14] On June 20, associated convective activity began to organize.[15] The system continued to develop, though by early on June 21, the low-level center had not yet become well-defined.[16] Later that day, the NHC declared that Tropical Depression Two-E had developed near the southern coast of Mexico.[17] Early the next day, the depression strengthened to the first tropical storm of the 2009 season and was named Andres. Andres strengthened in a steady stage eventually becoming a hurricane around 2 p.m. PDT on June 23, although it was possible that Andres became a hurricane earlier that day. [18] It also brought gale force winds to the Mexican coast. The system then weakened back to a tropical storm shortly after. High shear and dry air weakened Andres rapidly to a depression on the 24th, with the NHC issuing their last advisory that day.

Rough seas produced by the storm led to the drowning of a fisherman off the coast of Mexico. Flooding caused by Andres resulted in the evacuation of 200 people and 14 shelters were opened to accommodate the evacuees.[19]

Tropical Storm Blanca

On July 6, an area of disturbed weather situated approximately 420 mi (675 km) south-southwest of Baja California, Mexico was designated as Tropical Storm Blanca by the NHC, skipping tropical depression status.[1] The newly upgraded storm featured deep convection and a possible eye-feature around the center of circulation. Favorable conditions allowed the storm to intensify later that day.[2] Large convective banding features developed around the central dense overcast during the morning of July 6, as winds around the center of the storm increased to 45 mph (75 km/h). All forecast models agreed on further intensification of the storm; however, some models indicated rapid intensification before the storm moved into a less favorable environment.[3] However, this did not happen, and the system moved into colder waters, weakening to a tropical depression on the 8th, before finally becoming a remnant low on the 9th. The remnants began moving northwestward, and they dissipated early on July 10, a thousand miles or more west-northwest of Baja California. The remnants of the storm brought unseasonable rainfall, although negligible, to parts of southern and central California on July 11.[4] The moisture reached the region after being pulled northward by an upper-level low off the coast of Oregon.[5] The storm produced usually heavy rainfall, exceeding 2 in/h (50 mm/h) at times.[6]

Hurricnae Carlos

On July 9, showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of disturbed weather located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California became more concentrated around a developing low level centre. In the early hours of July 10th, the system was designated as Tropical Depression Four-E, and the NHC commenced advisories. Around 2:00 p.m. PDT, the system strengthened into Tropical Storm Carlos. On July 11, Tropical Storm Carlos strengthened into a minimal Category 1 hurricane. It also developed a small eye feature, based on satellite presentation. However, by morning of July 12, the National Hurricane Center noted that the small eye-like feature had disappeared. Overnight on July 11 through the morning of July 12, the structure of Carlos became disorganized for unknown reasons. Deep convection contracted to a small region around the center of circulation and the overall size of the storm diminished. In the early afternoon hours, the continued degeneration of the system led to its downgrade to tropical storm status. Throughout the rest of the 12th and until mid-day on the 13th, Carlos continued to weaken, but the weakening trend slightly abated, enough for Carlos to reintensify slightly, from 50 mph to 65 mph. A statement from the NHC that day predicted Carlos to either stay at 65 mph for the next three days or so, or to constantly fluctuate in intensity. However, by July 14, a new eye wall developed and Carlos was given hurricane status again. It rapidly intensified to a peak of 90 knots, or 105 mph (at 0900 UTC on July 15), and the NHC noted the distinct "pinhole eye feature" in their TWD. By the end of July 14th, the eye had started to get less defined, and on the 15th, the system began a weakening trend. On July 16, Carlos degenerated into a remnant low, and the final advisory was issued. [1]

Tropical Storm Dolores

On July 14 a sprawling area of disturbed weather to the south of Baja California showed signs of tropical organization, and advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E were initiated that day. The depression soon strengthened into a tropical storm, being named Dolores during the morning of July 15, and later that day began developing good banding features as well as good convection. Dolores strengthened to peak winds of 50 mph early on July 16. But, later that day, the deep convection associated with Dolores began to weaken, and the storm began a slow, but sure weakening trend. Dolores weakened to a tropical depression late on the 16th, and by early the next day, all deep convection had been lost, and the NHC issued their last advisory on the weakened Tropical Depression Dolores, as it quickly dissipated over cooler waters and under adverse shear.


Sunday, July 19, 2009

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Update

Carlos is a category 2 hurricane now that is undergoing an interaction from Five_E which formed last night.

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Blanca finished

NRL stopped advisories on it.

NHC downgrades Carlos to a TS

NHC has just downgraded Carlos to a depression. Blanca continues to move up the West Coast.

Saturday, July 11, 2009

NHC confirmed

THE NHC says that Carlos now has winds of 80 mph.

Breaking news

Carlos is a hurricane, 75 mph, 987 mb according to the NRL.

Hurricane Kathleen (1976)

Hurricane Katlheen (1976)
Hurricane Kathleen was a tropical cyclone of the 1976 Pacific hurricane season. Though rather weak, only a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, it was very destructive. Kathleen caused widespread flooding and damage in northern Mexico and parts of the southwestern United States causing $610 million in damage. It also took an unusual path.
Meteorological history
A tropical depression formed on September 7. Twelve hours later it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Kathleen. After spending the past day moving slowly, it started accelerating northwards. On September 9, it reached hurricane status and brushed a promontory on the Pacific coast of the Baja California. Kathleen was a hurricane for only six hours, and was a tropical storm, with 50 mph winds, when it made landfall in California on September 10. With its circulation intact and still a tropical storm, it moved inland.

Upon making landfall, Kathleen immediately was downgraded to a tropical depression Tropical Depression Kathleen dissipated on September 11 while over central Nevada as it continued accelerating. Residual moisture from the hurricane hung around over the southwestern United States.[1]
Impact
In Arizona on September 10 and September 11, gales caused considerable damage in Yuma. For a time, the sustained winds exceeded 50 mph, with gusts up to 76 mph. Rains caused severe flash-flooding in Mohave County. One man was killed when the wind blew a palm tree onto his mobile home.[1]Residual moisture brings more severe thunderstorms to the state on September 24 and 25. The Tucson area is particularly hard hit with flash flooding and hail as large as golf balls. Hail covers the ground to a depth of 5 inches on Mount Lemmon It killed a man when a gust of wind blew a palm tree down onto his mobile home. Severe flooding and hailstorms also resulted.[2]While most of the rainfall from the storm fell in California,[3] 2.87 in (73 mm) fell at the Davis Dam on the Colorado River.[4]


California received record rainfall, with 14.76 inches falling on the southern slopes of Mt. San Gorgonio, and 10.13 inches accumulated on Mount Laguna.[5] Flooding caused catastrophic destruction to Ocotillo. Because Ocotillo is situated atop an alluvial fan, the path of the raging floodwaters was wide and changing, with over half of the town being totally destroyed. The waters piled a layer of sand that was over 3 meters high in some places.[2] Three to six people drowned in the mud and waters in that city.[3] Other parts of Imperial County and Riverside County experienced severe flash flooding.[4]

Six to 12 inches of rainfall was observed in the central and southern mountains of southern California on September 10 and September 11.

Flooding disrupted transportation routes in the county. Part of Interstate 8 along the San Diego and Imperial County border was washed out. [5] Three trestles belonging to the San Diego and Arizona Eastern Railway were destroyed, and five others were damaged. At more than 50 other locations, tracks were buried by mudslides or had the ground under them washed away. After assessing the damage from Kathleen, the Southern Pacific Transportation Company decided in 1977 to abandon most of the SD&AE railway, but in 1978 the Interstate Commerce Commission disallowed this plan and the railway was restored.[6]

Homeowners in Palm Desert received considerable damage from the storm. Many flood control structures throughout the area failed to work.[7] The control structures in the area were rebuilt, and they withstood the next series of flash floods caused by Hurricane Doreen's remnants in 1977.[8]

Kathleen highest rainfall was 14.76 inches in Mt. San Gorgonio.[6] Agriculture was disrupted throughout the area. The area covered by the Salton Sea increased.

In Wyoming, the cyclone is credited with the first known sighting of a White Ibis in the state's history.[7] In Montana, Kathleen dropped locally heavy rainfall approaching 2 inches (51 mm) in localized spots.[8] In Oregon, heavy rain was reported, enough to cause flooding and became the wettest in State's history.

Aftermath

Parts of California were declared disaster area.[11] Damage estimates ranged from 40 to 160 million dollars.[12] For, Unknown reasons Kathleen was not retired but the Post 1977 name change prevented further uses for Kathleen
Note:
This is copied from Hurricane Kathleen (1976)

Update

Carlos -70 mph
Blanca- 25 mph